TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

I suppose Copious (#2) is the horse to beat as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. However, I can't say that I love any of this horse's prior efforts, and he was pretty disappointing when fading to fourth as the favorite against a mediocre field last time. I think there are better options in here. One of those is Free Spin (#3), who turns back slightly after fading against a better group going a mile last time. He couldn't quite reel in a pair of maiden claiming winners last fall, but both New York Scrappy and Sergeant Capps have returned to beat winners with improved efforts. Then there's the pair for Linda Rice, of which Oil Capital (#1) may take more money based on his running line behind the talented Cornucopian. I prefer Rice's other runner Antietam (#5), who couldn't get a two-turn dirt route last time at Keeneland but probably wants to go shorter. Despite being a son of Curlin, he's bred to go shorter on the dam's side, and he ran into some tough rivals on dirt early in his career. Rice has already scratched him out of a softer spot to run here instead, and I like the move up in class first off the claim for this barn.

RACE 2

Daniella Marie (#5) is a deserving favorite as she drops down to this starter level after trying tougher groups of winners in her last couple of starts. She was hardly disgraced in that NYSS stakes two back, and last time didn't seem totally comfortable after being forced to rate in the pocket early. She's drawn better outside here, and will be tough to beat if she reproduces either of those recent efforts. The only alternative that really interests me is Ohoopee (#7), who obviously has to get faster to beat the favorite. Yet she looks much more competitive based on her TimeformUS Speed Figures, including a pace-upgraded number last time out. She engaged in an early duel through fast fractions and won the battle before both were overhauled late. Over 5 years, Rice is 20 for 68 (29%, $2.56 ROI) second off the claim on Aqueduct dirt with horses that she also owns. This filly seems like a candidate to step forward with that first local start under her belt.

RACE 3

I couldn’t get too creative in this state-bred allowance. Mad Banker (#6) may have a pace advantage over his two main rivals, but I have some questions about him getting this 9-furlong distance. Some will be lured in by the rider switch to Flavien Prat on Berning Beauty (#4), but I didn't think the trouble he had in that last race was terribly impactful. He had to steady slightly but was probably finishing third regardless. I just thought Concorde Spirit (#2) ran by far the best race on that occasion, since he did not get a good ride and still crossed the wire first. He was hung wide around both turns from a difficult post after getting indecisively handled early. He gets a significant rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche and is drawn much better this time.

RACE 4

The main contenders are pretty hard to separate in this allowance optional claimer that serves as Wednesday's co-feature. Toxic Grey (#4) bounced back to form in his second start off the layoff last time. He was no match for the talented One Nine Hundred, who looks bound for stakes events, but he did finish well clear of the rest while earning a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure, the highest of his career. A similar performance in this spot makes him a major player, but he will have to stretch his speed to 7 furlongs. That distance is also a minor concern for Vettriano (#7), who may play out as the controlling frontrunner from his outside post. He finished well behind Toxic Grey in that Jan. 9 race at this level, but he was racing on the wrong part of the racetrack. Outside paths were preferred that afternoon, and Vettriano was stuck down on the rail nearly throughout. I still have some reservations about taking him going this far, but he is a rebound candidate. I'm going in a different direction with Top Gun Rocket (#3), who is actually cutting back in distance for this race. He caught a pretty tough field at this level last time when beaten by the talented Todd Pletcher trained duo of Donegal Surges and Be You. He also didn't get a particularly good trip in that spot, getting steadied badly at the quarter pole before trying to rally in tight quarters down inside late. He doesn't really want to go two turns, so I can excuse his effort two back, and he got a wide trip out of the Wilson chute in his only other poor performance back in August. This horse had sprinted effectively in late 2024, and I believe he'll be capable of achieving a better result as he finally turns back to a shorter distance.

RACE 5

When this race was initially drawn last week, Saratoga Party (#4) wasn't in the entries. Her addition changes the complexion of this race. This Chad Brown filly is coming off a disappointing loss as the favorite against some of these same rivals, but she had a valid excuse. It was one of those rare occasions where Flavien Prat actually got into trouble. She was in a precarious position between horses early and just got shuffled back all the way around the far turn. Flavien tried to maneuver her between horses into the lane but she again got caught behind a wall of rivals. She shook free in the last eighth, but it was too late. She has much more tactical speed than that, as she displayed two back when just missing behind subsequent stakes winner Shilling. Based on that form, she's superior to this field and I expect her to rebound here. The only alternatives that interest me at all are exiting that same race on Dec. 27. Contrary Mary (#8) got caught in the same traffic jam that hampered the favorite on the turn, but she found a clear lane past the quarter pole while Saratoga Party was still stuck in traffic. This tall, leggy filly has some upside second time out for Bill Morey, but I do tend to think the Chad Brown runner just has more natural talent. I also think Full of Tact (#5) can continue improving with more distance, and she gets a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche after Eric Cancel lost all sorts of ground going wide with her last time. I just don't see the right pace setup materializing for her.

RACE 6

If Tizmarkus (#8) shows up with any semblance of his prior form, he's probably going to beat this field. It's just hard to have much confidence that we're going to see anything close to his best as he drops in for $10k, half the price he was acquired for. You can make the argument that his last race isn't as bad as it looks, since there was no closing going on behind the winner over a speed-favoring track. However, it's hard to ignore the steady decline in his form. The good news is that Jimmy Ferraro is actually pretty sharp off the claim, going 8 for 39 (21%, $3.95 ROI) with this move on dirt over 5 years. I prefer him to main rival Brave Buck (#6), who is also dropping in class. Linda Rice can win with dropdowns like this, but I thought this horse ran poorly in each of his last two starts, and I wonder if he's just gone sour lately. I'm going in a different direction with a bigger price. There appears to be plenty of speed in this field to set up a runner from just off the pace. Prince of Truth (#3) can capitalize on that scenario if able to work out a better trip than last time. He had decent position early, but got pushed into tight quarters by a fading rival into the turn. He was pinned against the rail by that foe all the way around the bend, and then was further compromised by having to alter course when finally looking to get off the rail in heavy traffic late. It appeared to me that he had more to give if allowed the opportunity. Now he's making his first start off the claim for a barn that has done well with this move at Finger Lakes.

RACE 7

I had trouble really warming up to anyone in this co-featured allowance optional claimer. Donegal Surges (#4) is obviously the one to beat in his current form. Perhaps he would have gotten caught by stablemate Be You last time if he hadn't drifted into that one's path, but it was still a very strong effort for a horse that appears to have rounded back into top form. Stretching back out to 9 furlongs shouldn’t bother him at all, and Kendrick Carmouche has apparently landed here over 3 other rivals who he had been riding in recent starts. One of those is his Todd Pletcher stablemate Classicist (#5). I have been a fan of this horse in the past, but I'm bothered by his in ability to string races together. This is a much tougher race than the allowance he won last time, and he's coming in off a layoff. Kinetic (#6) might have needed his return race in the Queens County. Brad Cox had said even before running that he would have preferred an allowance race for him. That said, Cox has amazing stats off layoffs, so I'm not sure how much we can expect this horse to improve. I'm instead going with Dreamlike (#7), who just seems like he's finally figured things out late in his career. He always had talent, but may have paid the price for his connections trying to do too much too soon. He's finally come back around for Linda Rice, and ran well to finally clear his N1X condition, beating a tough rival in the consistent Double Your Money. I like the outside draw for a horse who doesn't want to get shuffled too far back early, and the distance clearly works better for him than just about anyone else in this race.

RACE 8

Five scratches reduce this field to nine, so it's no longer the war that it shaped up to be when first drawn. Two of the main players both exit the Jan. 3 maiden race at this level. B Thedonald (#14) closed well after a poor break in his debut, and will obviously have a say in the outcome if he progresses second time out. Yet I didn't love that race he's exiting, and wasn't convinced that he really ran any better than Bounty Banker (#9), who also got away awkwardly and made an earlier move into the race. He might be the one with more upside and he could be as much as twice the price of that rival. The horse I originally wanted as my top pick has scratched, so I'm upgrading another runner upon reassessing this field. Twenty One Red (#12) will try a dirt sprint for the first time after starting out his career sprinting on turf and then transitioning immediately to dirt routes. It became apparent in his last race that a mile on the main track is just too far for him. He traveled keenly in the bridle on the far turn, even steadying as he ran up on heels. Yet he failed to produce much of a kick when cut loose in the lane. That's indicative of a horse who wants to go shorter, and now he gets that chance.