TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

My primary opinion in this race is that I don't want Fusion (#2), the Chad Brown firster. This horse is going to take money by default due to connections and pedigree, but I don't love the visual of her workouts down in Florida. She was an RNA at the sales twice, first for $500k as a yearling and then for $575k when working a pedestrian 10 3/5 at the Fasig-Tipton sale last year. Between the firsters, I would rather go with Jordan's Love (#4), who shows a fast gate drill for her debut. Tom Morley can win first time out and this one is by good debut sire Maclean's Music even though there is some turf on the dam's side. Among those with experience, Gena B (#3) has run the best races, but she hasn't been seen since last June, and I'm always reluctant to take these types of precocious 2-year-olds who ran well in the weaker spring juvenile races. That leaves me with Smart Sugar (#1), the horse I want to bet in this spot. Perhaps getting Lasix will prove significant for a filly who has basically struggled to finish in two of her first three starts. Between those two non-efforts, she actually ran a decent race to be third in a deceptively strong maiden event last October, from which Imperatrice has gone on to place in a stakes. She can be speed from the inside and has seemingly worked better than ever for her return.

RACE 2

There is an error on the ML for this race. (Yes, I made a typo.) Tammy's Cruiser (#3) is supposed to be 9-2, not 4-5. Obviously, there shouldn't be two horses listed at odds-on. The one who actually deserves to be that short a price is Baby Sassicaia (#1), and I'm not trying to beat this class dropper. I had tried her in some tougher spots recently and she really wasn't disgraced but she was just overmatched at the starter allowance level. She was wide against the strong rail bias two back but has otherwise been fairly consistent. Any of her surrounding efforts will beat this field.

RACE 3

Collect the Data (#4) will be a handful if she runs back to any of her races since the return from the layoff last summer. I do think she's had some circumstances in her favor in a few of those spots, particularly last time when she was riding a speed bias to victory. However, her form has still been consistently better than the rest of this field and she's supposed to play out as the controlling speed. The only horse that I think has a chance to beat her is Always Angels (#3). This mare had sprinted for most of her career, but really responded well to a stretch-out last time for Linda Rice. She was in good position early before getting steadied on the turn. However, she quickly overcame that trouble to jump right back in the bridle, pouncing on the leader and running past to win going away. I like the confident move up in class second off the claim. Rice is 24 for 85 (28%, $2.39 ROI) second off the claim with last-out winners on dirt over the last 5 years, suggesting that she keeps these horses moving forward after they win first off the claim for her.

RACE 4

Roger Roger (#5) figures to be a heavy favorite in this maiden special weight after closing well for second behind the talented Sea Vista last time. Since getting purchased by new connections and transferred to Amelia Green, he's run three consecutive TimeformUS Speed Figures between 102 and 106. Those are the fastest numbers achieved by anyone in this race, and the most recent of those might not even fully represent his performance since he was wide against a rail bias. The only drawback is that his merits are fairly obvious, and you will have to swallow a short price on a horse who is still a maiden after 8 starts. Pop Goes the Wiz (#3) ran pretty well to be third behind that rival at this level last time, but he benefited from a rail-skimming trip over a course favoring inside paths. Fateful Lightning (#4) returns from a brief layoff after outrunning his odds to finish third at this level last time. A repeat of that performance puts him in the mix, but I don't love him cutting back a furlong. The horse I want to bet is Frostelle (#1), who may play out as the controlling speed from the rail. He chased the pace and faded two back, but that was his first start following a 17-month layoff. He took a big step forward in his second start of the form cycle last time. Not only did he improve his speed figure finishing third, but he did so despite racing wide against a very strong rail bias on Feb. 4. I think he's better than that result, and can improve again as he steps up third off the layoff. Ricardo Santana should take advantage of his apparent pace advantage.

RACE 5

Twenty One Red (#3) is obviously the horse to beat after twice being victimized by the gold rail period in early to mid-February. He was pretty disappointing as a short-priced favorite when he dropped to this level last time, but the rail bias did work against him that day. I still don't know that I want to take another short price on him with Flavien Prat getting aboard, but he is a logical contender. My top pick in here is Eye On the Ball (#6), another horse who was wide against the bias last time. That was also his career debut, and he just seemed pretty green throughout. It was also a pretty strong maiden special weight for the level. He figures to benefit from that experience, and now gets realistic class relief in his second start.

RACE 6

I can't take a short price on Garamond (#4) after that disgraceful loss off the bench at Tampa last time. Between the two short prices, I much prefer Toxic Grey (#5), who chased wide against the bias last time. A repeat of either of his last two efforts will probably put him in the winner's circle here. The one other horse I considered is Ranger Battalion (#1), but I made a score with him last time against a softer field. I don't mind him turning back slightly, but I wonder if he'll get the pace he requires in this spot. The price should still be fair, so they're the main two for me.

RACE 7

It's pretty easy to make cases for 5 of the 6 runners in this starter allowance and even the longshot is coming into this race in career-best form. House United (#4) might be the most consistent runner in this field, but he just so rarely wins. Distance doesn't seem to be an issue, and he can make any kind of trip for himself. He just gets a big rider upgrade to Flavien Prat this time, and that's likely to drive down the price. Awesome Empire (#1) is clearly in strong form, but he is stepping up in class after getting a very good trip to beat weaker last time. I'm also not convinced that he's at his best going this far. The distance won't bother Senegal (#2), who looked better than ever first off the claim for Tom Morley last time. I think he's a major win contender. I just slightly prefer Kavanaugh (#5) first off the claim for Linda Rice. He's another stepping way up in class, but he won despite racing wide against the bias last time. This could prove to be a pretty good claim for Linda since the horse has some back class. I like that she's confidently stepping him up into a protected spot first off the claim.

RACE 8

This race has completely changed after scratches. Moon Gate (#7) now figures to be a heavy favorite off her second-place finish at this level last time. However, she benefited from a rail bias that day, and I'm not convinced that she will win here if she merely repeats that effort. Her main pace rival has scratched out, but I still thinks he could face some early pressure. One horse who I'm looking to be more forward than she was last time is Santagata (#4). This mare only runs well when she can get forward or in the clear early, so I'm hoping this switch to a more aggressive rider like Ruben Silvera will have her positioned for success. She has the ability to beat a field like this and can move forward second off the layoff. Others to consider are Ah Ca Ira (#1), who did ride the same rail bias as the favorite last time but at least took a step back in the right direction. I would even have some interest in Gregorian Solo (#11) if she had a rider with more experience on this circuit. She chased wide against the bias last time and had every right to tire.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

There isn't much to highlight here. Linda Rice will probably win this race with one of her two entrants. I slightly prefer class dropper Golden Plate (#5), who has run superior speed figures and faced much better company. Main rival and stablemate Fever Night (#3) did finally get back to the winner's circle last time, but beat rode a speed bias to victory.

RACE 2

Two Ducks (#4) is probably the horse to beat given the early speed that he possesses in a race that doesn't feature much of that. However, I still have some reservations about him getting 7 furlongs. He would appreciate if the track is still wet on Saturday, since he appears to prefer off tracks. I just prefer the other logical contender Tiger Rocket (#2). I didn't think this colt got a particularly good ride last time when he was restrained behind a slow pace early and never seemed totally comfortable racing in that position. Speed and the rail were good on Jan. 2, so I won't hold it against him that he failed to make a late impact. He ran better two back with a wide trip and is probably getting the additional class relief that he needs. I also think a slightly shorter trip should work well for him.

RACE 3

Chillax (#2) may win this race at a short price, but I'm getting a little tired of his tendency to settle for minor awards as the favorite. He got a very good trip last time, saving ground all the way around the second turn before popping outside of the leader in upper stretch. He looked like he was going to win, but just flattened out late. Some of that was due to the rail bias, but I think he also showed that he may not really want to go this far. I prefer others from that race. One of those is Valentinian (#4), who was wide against the bias throughout in that Feb. 6 allowance. He's another who isn't totally convincing going 1 1/4 miles, but he is better than his last couple of results and can rebound here. The horse I prefer is Neon Bordeaux (#1). He did spend time on the rail in that Feb. 6 race, but he was off the inside for much of the far turn before angling back in for the stretch drive. What really struck me about his performance was that he was actually able to close through the lane in a slow-paced race where no one else was making up ground from the back. His massive stride suggests he wants this 10-furlong distance more than anyone else. I also don't think he's going to be nearly as far back early this time in a smaller field with less pace.

RACE 4

I have major doubts about Sculcos Folly (#2) getting a mile. This horse owns by far the best speed figure in this field when he earned a 112 TimeformUS for that near 10-length victory against starter optional claiming foes last time. A repeat of that performance will obviously beat this field. However, he strikes me as such a sprinter. He's smaller with a short, choppy stride, characteristics of a horse who will have trouble going longer. The problem with this race is that so few seem well suited to the distance. The one horse who looks most convincing is stablemate The Obliterator (#6), but that's fairly obvious since he's won routing. He improved when claimed back by these connections last time and is dangerous even as he returns on short rest here. The other horse who I believe will handle the distance is Anyway (#7). He was beaten by The Obliterator here last week, but he stayed on decently in his first attempt going a mile and may be fitter for this race as he makes his third start in less than a month. Over 5 years, Linda Rice is 22:5-7-2 (23%, $2.63 ROI) coming back on 10-day turnarounds or shorter in stakes races. That a 64% rate of finishing in the exacta, suggesting that these types are well meant.

RACE 5

The scratch of possible favorite Morlock certainly boosts the chances of controlling speed Gypsy Dreaming (#6). This horse was actually chasing outside off the gold rail in the early stages of his last victory before being guided down inside in the stretch. That performance makes him a contender here, but I still have some concerns about him getting 7 furlongs even with a pace advantage. I prefer some others who were against the rail bias last time. Good Lord (#5) won despite racing 3-wide against the bias, and others have returned from that race to improve in their next starts. He is the most consistent runner in here and has held that form despite changing barns several times over the last year. He's making his first start off the claim for sharp connections and can run faster on a fair surface. I just slightly prefer the less exposed form of Gamebred (#2), who  took a big step forward when finishing second at this level two back, splitting the superior rivals Reynolds Channel and Interceptor. He confirmed that sudden improvement by finishing a strong third against another tough field last time. The race was dominated by either inside or forward horses, and he was neither of those things, rallying outside. That performance is stronger than it appears, and he will beat this field if he runs as well here.

RACE 6

Reliable Lady (#4) is clearly the mare to beat as she drops in class. It would appear that Sandy Goldfarb and the Brad Cox team are willing to admit they may have made a bad claim with this one, as she got good for a brief period of time late last year and appears to have gone the other way since. She still can win here if just holding her recent form, but she's a little tough to take at a very short price. I had said yesterday that I thought the race at this level won by Kadena was a little stronger than the speed figure it was assigned. I'll obviously take a look at runner-up Next On Stage (#3) based on that opinion, but she did ride the gold rail for much of her trip. I would rather take Shadyside (#2) from that same race, since she was stuck 4-wide against the rail bias all the way around the turn and into the lane. She actually was in the mix in upper stretch before that tough trip took its toll late. She also had less than ideal trips in both prior starts since returning from a layoff, and I think she's a lot better than she looks on paper. The switch to hot-riding Ricardo Santana doesn't hurt.

RACE 7

I'm not trying to beat Early On (#1), who gets needed class relief after trying the Kentucky Oaks last year and then returning in a tough open company stakes race last time. She hasn't faced restricted competition since she was a 2-year-old, and she should fit well against this field as she takes advantage of her New York-bred status. Grace Reformed (#4) was in strong form before she went to the sidelines last summer, but even her best races might not be good enough to beat Early On if that one bounces back to her better form second off the layoff.

RACE 8

Galinda (#2) will probably win this race at a very short price, but I can poke some holes in this favorite. Her debut was legitimately strong, but it was accomplished over a wet track sprinting 6 furlongs. She got an extra furlong winning the East View last time, but did so with the aid of a rail bias after being allowed to set a slow pace. Now she lands in a race that features much more early speed and she has to prove that she can stretch out to a mile. She is by good route influence Good Magic, but visually she has the quicker action of a sprinting type. I don't want to just hand this race to her as the likely odds-on favorite. I'll try to beat her with Blue Note (#7), who obviously has to get faster to take down the favorite. Yet she proved she wanted every bit of this one-mile distance on debut, not hitting her best stride until the final furlong. She was a little green that day, and was ridden conservatively like a horse who probably needed the race, that is until Flavien Prat realized he might be able to win in the late stages. I get the sense she's better than that modest speed figure and I'm expecting a step forward now that she has a start under her belt. Linda Rice is 5 for 9 (56%, $4.78 ROI) with debut winners making their second career starts on dirt over the last 2 years.

RACE 9

This allowance race features the return of G1 Hopeful third-place finisher Incentive Pay (#3). However, that was the 2024 edition of the Hopeful, and this horse hasn't run since. Chad Brown does have extremely strong statistics in this situation, going 8 for 27 (30%, $2.53 ROI) off layoffs of 360 days or more over the last 5 years. I'm still reticent to take too short a price on a horse who does need to improve to beat this field. Sea Vista (#7) is stepping up out of a maiden victory, but this horse had always been well regarded by his connections and may just finally be putting things together now that he's focusing on dirt racing. He won despite chasing outside against a rail bias last time, and that 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure is among the fastest numbers in this field. Another horse getting a class test is Porosity (#2), who just beat starter allowance foes in his last start. This is a much stronger group, but he was impressive in victory, making up ground into a very fast final split. That 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the fastest number in this field, and Linda Rice has given him ample time to recover from that effort. Protected (#8) showed some promise in New Jersey-bred races last year, but he has really stepped forward since returning against open company this winter. He chased the talented National Identity two back, and the form of that race was flattered when that rival returned to win a stakes. Then last time Protected was chasing outside over an extremely rail-biased surface. He held on well for third, and was the only runner among the top four finishers not to spend any time on the inside part of the track. The Pace Projector doesn't highlight much early speed in this race, depicting three horses vying for the lead, none of which are confirmed frontrunners. He's drawn perfectly outside here and should get an advantageous trip stalking a moderate pace.