TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

The two horses making the biggest class drops figure to attract the most support in this opener, but they each have some questions to answer. Superpower (#4) would obviously beat this field if able to recapture some semblance of his form from last winter, but he has been pretty disappointing in two starts since returning this year. Those were much tougher fields, and the class drop may be exactly what he needs, but I still have some doubts, especially given his propensity to break slowly. I'm a little more confidence in Fever Night (#1), the other horse getting significant class relief. He didn't get the best trip last time when glued to the rail over a sloppy track, and Linda Rice does well bringing horses back on short rest. One alternative to this pair is Nantz (#2), who was wide against a rail bias last time going a distance that may be too short for him. I'm not sure he's really that good overall, but he fits at this level. My top pick is Grand Commander (#5), who did save some ground early in his last race over a rail-biased course, but swung very wide for the stretch drive and was actually closing well late. I like him better going a mile, and he's drawn well outside of other speed in a paceless race.

RACE 2

The three shortest prices on the morning line are all coming off disappointing efforts. New York Scrappy (#2) returns on short rest after fading with a wide trip in his last start. He's quick enough to make the lead here, and the class relief figures to help him. He's probably the horse to beat, since I'm not thrilled with the recent form of Register (#3) and Golden Plate (#4) is coming out of a couple of races that might be overrated on the Beyer scale. The only horse in this field that I could bet is Typhoon Fury (#5). He's never won on dirt, but he's only had limited experience on this surface. He ran pretty well when third at this level two back, and last time he was never in good position, rated inside early behind a slow pace early. That was a much tougher field and he was unable to match the fresh group of leaders when they sprinted for home. This is a more realistic spot, and he's drawn well outside this time.

RACE 3

Playa Del Mar (#4) is a standout based on recent form. Almost all of his speed figures rank among the fastest in this field, and he's dropping in class after trying tougher first off the claim for these connections. He didn't even run that badly when getting a less than stellar trip last time. He was steadied out of position early and had to rate far back before making a belated rally. He did spend much time on the rail over an inside-biased track, but it's not as if that's his only good effort. If he shows up, he figures to be tough. I tried to make a case for longshot Middle Market (#2), who did angle wide against the gold rail at this level last time. I'm just concerned that he could again get compromised by a lack of pace. Fort Nelson (#5) spent plenty of time on the rail in that same race, which will turn off some trip handicappers. I still thought he finished pretty well, and I like him stretching back out in distance. I have always thought this horse wants to go longer, and he's at his best when he can be involved up front. He should get that chance here without much speed signed on. Kendrick Carmouche figures to be more aggressive than his last rider.

RACE 4

I'm not trying to beat Gulfy (#2), who was chasing outside against the rail bias on Feb. 5. Three of his last four speed figures would win most races at this level, and I think he's finally due to break through as he drops in class again. Magicstrikesagain (#6) is the obvious alternative as he drops out of a maiden special weight for Chad Brown. I just have little interest in taking a short price on a horse who was 44-1 for this barn on debut. I believe Gulfy is a much more likely winner at what could be comparable prices.

RACE 5

It's hard to really warm up to anyone in this $10k claimer. Others have already had plenty of experience at this bottom level, so I want the class dropper My First Love (#4). She's faced nothing but better fields than this in her recent starts, and I didn't like the trip she got when she made her first start off the claim for Rob Atras last time. Chris Elliott stuck her on the rail early and that probably wasn't the best place to be over a sloppy track. This distance is a little sharp for her, but I'm not going to worry about that too much. Rob Atras has had success with her in the past and she has the tactical speed to stay within range early. Jackie the Joker (#6) is the other dropping in class after facing tougher starter allowance fields in both starts since getting claimed back by Jimmy Ferraro. She was disappointing last time, but she was chasing wide and that pace completely collapsed. Among those exiting the Feb. 5 race at this level, Miss Lao (#7) probably ran the best race after chasing wide against the rail bias. I just preferred the droppers.

RACE 6

I wish I had more clever take on this race, but I found it hard to look past likely favorite Social Hour (#4). He did get a great trip when riding the rail bias last time, but that was a tougher field than he's catching at the same level this time. He's supposed to play out as the main speed, and I think the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs works better for him than just about anyone else in this field. The other Kantarmaci runner Shoot the Nickel (#3) seems like the main danger if this pace comes apart. Some may consider the Linda Rice runner Thirteen G's (#1) after he stumbled at the start and was basically pulled up last time. I'm just confused by the placement, since he seems like a horse who is better suited to going longer not shorter.

RACE 7

Southeastern (#3) figures to attract some default support merely due to connections, being trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Flavien Prat. This horse did have a minor excuse when spending a bit too much time on the rail in his last race during a period of time when that wasn't the ideal path on the racetrack. However, he's still achieved his best form going a mile, and it's unclear if he possesses the speed to be effective at this shorter distance. I view Escape Hall (#7) as a stronger contender, and he could offer value if he's not favored in this spot. He responded well to a drop in class when he broke his maiden against $30k claimers two back, and was acquired out of that race by Ilkay Kantarmaci. He was moved right back up in class by the new connections and held his own against a tougher field than this one. A repeat of that performance makes him a major player. My top pick is Mercilesanihilator (#1), who is moving up in class after finishing a distance second in a $25k conditioned claimer last time. He was no match for winner Top Player that afternoon, but that rival had everything his own way up front, getting to the hug the rail over an inside-biased track. Mercilesanihilator was never that far off the inside, but he was forced to chase outside the winner throughout, which proved to be a disadvantageous trip during that two-week period in early February. Now he's making his second start off the claim for Linda Rice, who does extremely well with these types. Rice is 15 for 41 (37%, $2.55 ROI) second off a claim and second off a layoff of 75 to 180 days in NYRA dirt races over the last 4 years.