TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Between the two likely favorites in the opener I much prefer Brightline Bullet (#4), who showed promise while racing greenly throughout on debut at Monmouth last summer. He was off slowly, made a big far turn move, but then thwarted himself by hanging on his left lead. He looked like a tank training in Florida over the winter despite returning as a new gelding, and should win if he can get it together mentally. Frostelle (#6) was wide against the rail bias two back, and then didn't get an ideal trip when shuffled inside on the turn last time. He can do better here, but lacks the upside of some others. Onepac (#2) took no money on debut last summer, flashing speed before fading. That was a tough spot for the level, and now he returns with a pretty encouraging worktab for a capable layoff barn. My primary take is that I want to beat Draft Riots (#3), whose efforts last year did little for me.

RACE 2

This race might be more competitive than it seems at first glance with a potentially vulnerable favorite. Gunner Bay (#2)is a form standout as he drops down, but Mike Miceli is just 2 for 26 (8%, $0.26 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50% or more over the last 5 years. I'm not sure what to expect after he was vanned off last time, and he didn't run poorly enough to justify this drop back down to the $20k level. In shopping for alternatives, I landed on Quiet Wisdom (#3), who obviously has his flaws. It's worth acknowledging that the barn has been cold lately, though Edgard Zayas picking up the mount is a good sign. He actually ran pretty well against a tough field two back, and last time was unwisely sent forward to duel in a pace that fell apart. He's better than that and will be a price here. Register (#7) is another who got cooked chasing an honest pace last time; should encounter a more favorable scenario here, and has races in his past that will beat these.

RACE 3

This didn't come together as the strongest MSW field, so I'm willing to try 4YO first time starter Karley B (#1) in her belated career debut. She had been entered to run in Jan. 2025 and got scratched with an issue. It's taken her a long time to get back into the entry box, but she appears to be training well. Girvin is an excellent debut sire, and she's a half-sister to stakes-placed Combat Mission. Find Your Path (#5) debuted in a large field on debut where she showed decent speed to chase the leaders before getting swarmed by rivals at the quarter pole. She should improve second time out for a barn that generally does better after a start. Tuthilltown (#3) ran her best race on turf last year, so I wonder if this is a prep for a return to that surface. Her dirt efforts weren't bad, but didn't do enough for me to justify what's likely to be a short price.

RACE 4

I couldn't get too creative here. Pulling Threads (#7) has faced tougher rivals in open maiden special weight events, and ran well enough each time to beat most fields at this level. I thought she got a good education on debut, but questioned the stretch-out to a mile last time. She ultimately didn't get the distance, but was hardly disgraced losing by less than 4 lengths. She should be set for a more forward as she cuts back and drops in for a high-priced tag. Ubique (#3) is clearly the main rival shipping up from Florida. She was apparently a private purchase out of her debut, a surprising 38-1 runner-up effort. She arguably should have won given her poor start and some trouble late, and that form has been flattered by runbacks. I wish I could have found a reason to upgrade Majorsdreamcometru (#6), who showed some hints of ability in her debut effort, but the regression last time was discouraging.

RACE 5

I had some interest in both Fernando Abreu claims, ultimately giving preference to the bigger price Brave Bear (#2). This horse's recent form doesn't represent his ability, as he was in over his head at the starter allowance level two and three back. Then last time he proved he wants no part of sprinting. He finally stretches back out to the right distance at an appropriate level, and should also be able to attain his preferred forward position here. The horse to beat is arguably High Tide (#7), who is supposed to move forward from his return last time. He ranged up like a winner at the quarter pole and just got tired in his first start in 9 months. He's dangerous if fitter now. The other Abreu claim Secured Landing (#3) was picked up from Jamie Ness, making it a little harder to project improvement. However, he did battle on gamely after contesting the pace against a tough field for the level last time.

RACE 6

Kavanaugh (#2) is obviously the horse to beat after racing competitively against starter allowance foes last time. It wasn't the toughest field for that level, but he still earned the best TimeformUS Speed Figure of his career. The only legitimate knock against him is that he did seem to improve going two turns, and I wonder if he'll maintain that form turning back to a one-turn mile here. Lotsa Trouble (#6) has gained some newfound consistency lately, but he's always at the mercy of pace and there isn't a ton of speed in here. I want to bet Remi's Moon (#3), who makes his first start off the claim for Rick Dutrow. He must prove he can get a mile, but he didn't get the right trip the last time he tried this distance, getting involved in a deceptively quick pace on Jan. 1. He subsequently overcame a speed bias to win on Jan. 18 before regressing for different connections last time. He's since been picked up by this dangerous barn that does excellent work off the claim. I can also appreciate the steady worktab since this acquisition, suggesting that he's done well for the new connections.

RACE 7

I'm not trying to beat Best Impression (#7), who probably should have won off the claim for these connections last time. She attempted to split horses at the quarter pole but ran out of room and was forced to alter course, getting through too late. That was a tougher spot than this, and she'll win if she merely holds that form. Her only poor effort over her last 5 starts came when she was against a rail bias on Feb. 13, so she's more trustworthy than she looks. She's Cool (#2) didn't run so well in one of those Starter Championship events last time, but her prior form had been solid, and she's dropping back down to an appropriate level. There is pace in this race, and Brooklyn Dantz (#5) feels like the type that could pick up pieces at a price. Excluding the allowance tries, she's been pretty effective over her last 3 claiming starts.