TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

After the scratch of heavy favorite Snide, the quality of this $20k maiden claimer drops significantly and it becomes much more difficult to handicap. Upon reassessing the contenders, I've decided that I don't want to settle for a short price on turf horse Flaming Spirit (#1), who has some dirt pedigree but feels like an underlay in this spot. Autumn's Turn (#6) is arguably the most reliable options, since she has accumulated the most competitive dirt route speed figures of anyone in this field. However, this 0 for 24 maiden is a plodder who doesn't figure to get much pace ahead of her, so she seems much more likely to hit the board than win. I'll instead land on Here'syourtrouble (#2), who was clearly terrible in her first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. Yet it's important to watch that race and not just rely on the chart comments, which indicate she merely faded. She actually seemed to react to something heading into the turn, possibly kickback, and essentially pulled herself up with Christian Maragh not really making much of an attempt to motivate her through it. She hadn't done that before, and she was traveling pretty well prior to getting set off. Notably, blinkers came off for that race, and they go right back on here. I expect her to run a far more competitive race if she's aggressively ridden and not allowed to drift back into that same position as last time. She's probably the favorite now, but I also think she's a likely winner.

RACE 2

It appears that $5 million yearling purchase Courting (#6) has found the perfect spot to gain his maiden diploma. I would have actually been interested in betting this horse against a tougher field than this, but he just towers over this group based on that 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure debut effort. He actually ran even better than the bare result might suggest, as he had to take a ton of kickback racing behind foes and was still running on through traffic late. He should have gotten some needed education, and now he's drawn perfectly outside. This could be the perfect stepping stone to the Remsen for a horse who seemingly wants all of two turns. I do think main rival and stablemate Grittiness (#3) is better than his last performance at Saratoga where he made a middle move before flattening out. A mile should suit him, but I'm just not sure he possesses the raw ability of his barnmate.

RACE 3

There's little left for bettors in this Awad with both Wesley Ward runners scratching and another speed Uncle Aldo also coming out. He won't be much of a price now, but I'll try to wire the field with Throckmorton (#1), who finally gets on turf after being entered for this surface in each of his last two starts. He doesn't have the most obvious turf pedigree, but Caracaro is a burgeoning turf influence, connecting with 23% of his turf sprint starters. He's worked quite a bit on grass, and Jose D'Angelo seems determined to make this switch with him. The others dont' appear to possess the speed to go with him.

RACE 4

I found it difficult to separate the quartet of fillies exiting that Oct. 19 race at this level. I'll give the tentative nod to Hello Beauty (#4), who I tried last time when she probably ran the best race of those coming back in here. She never saw the rail, advancing 2 to 3-wide on the far turn and was staying on best of all late behind a perfect trip winner. There's very little speed in here, and she can be somewhat forward. The same is true for Clearwater Beach (#8), who seemingly wanted to show more speed last time but was wrangled back off the pace. It would be wise of Javier Castellano to send her from the outside. Some may be enticed by the jockey switch on Sail With the Wind (#3), but I actually think Katie Davis has given this horse perfect trips in her last several starts, and I'm not sure what Ricardo Santana can do to ride her much better.

RACE 5

This state-bred maiden special weight is fairly open, lacking a clear standout. The lukewarm favorite could be Royal Riddle (#9), who has hit the board in both prior starts over 7 furlongs. I don’t think either race featured as deep a field as this one, and I wanted to look elsewhere. Sunday Boy (#4) is the younger full-brother to multiple sprint stakes winner Sunday Girl, but this son of Central Banker seems better suited to route distances based on his stride length and finishing ability. He stretched out on turf last time and didn't get the most comfortable trip, jostled at the start and shuffled back out of the chute before steadying behind tiring rivals in upper stretch. He's better than that effort, and deserves another chance on dirt over this longer distance. A couple of horses coming back on relatively short rest out of that Oct. 24 maiden race merit consideration. One of those is Kaz Dominator (#5), who has checked in fifth in both career starts. He didn't improve much on his debut, where he faced a very tough field led by subsequent stakes winner Bravaro. I prefer Whiskey Point (#6), who finished just behind that rival in his career debut. He took some money into the highly touted Pantherian, who got put up for the victory, but this colt ran like a newcomer who needed the race. He broke well, but got outrun through the middle stages of the race. He was never a threat late, but I liked the way he kept staying on under pressure through the lane despite having to run through kickback. He was finishing best of all across the wire, and galloped out best of all as if there was intention to get something more out of that race. He now stretches out to a more appropriate distance with plenty of route pedigree on his dam's side.

RACE 6

I hoped to be more impressed by Silsbee (#3) when she won at the state-bred N1X level last time. She got a perfect trip sitting on top of a slow pace and still had to work harder than expected as an odds-on favorite. I'm not sure she even ran well as she had in defeat with a wide trip two back at Saratoga. She may not be heading in the right direction, and I don't want to take a short price on her against a tougher field here. There are two alternatives I would consider. One of those is Golden Rocket (#7), who turns back off a solid effort in the Ticonderoga. She has sprinted effectively in the past, and appears to be back in top form now. The other option, who figures to be a better price, is Soloshot (#5), who has been steadily improving over her last few starts at the tougher open N1X level. She got a few wide trips this summer, and last time was shuffled too far back early before finishing best of all through the late stages. She's getting class relief here, and should be highly competitive if she can hold her form.

RACE 7

None of the shorter prices in this $50k maiden claimer do much for me. I suppose the fillies dropping out of maiden special weight company are the right starting point. Fire Agate (#10) attracts the services of Flavien Prat, which might make her an underlay. She hasn't done that much running in her prior starts, but she did get a wide trip last time and faces a much softer field here. Kat Stormy (#8) is another who may do better, dropping out of that same race. This will be just her second route attempt, and she won't have to improve much to turn the tables on that main rival. I just found an intriguing new face in first time turfer A. P. Slingshot (#5). This filly hasn't run particularly well in her dirt starts, and was especially disappointing last time when she dropped for a tag switching to Bruce Levine's barn. She did have a minor excuse, getting steadied at the start, but I still wanted to see her do more running late. Ultimatley, I don't care too much about those dirt races because I think she's a turf horse. Honor A. P. is a decent turf influence and her dam is by solid turf sire Freud, but it's her physicality and action that make me think grass will move her up. I don't love her, but she's the only interesting horse I could find in an otherwise uninspiring race.

RACE 8

Doomed (#2) is fairly logical based on his most recent dirt start at this level where he chased home next-out winner Brave Bear. A repeat of that performance will probably put him in the winner's circle here, but I'm reluctant to take a short price on a horse claimed away from Brad Cox. I saw a few alternatives to consider. Two of them don't have much early speed. Always Be Smart (#3) has plenty of prior form that makes him competitive at this level, but it appears that he's gone in the wrong direction recently and his plodding style may not fit this race. Nantz (#6) has a little more ability to get forward, and was uncharacteristically aggressive in the early stages last time before fading after a wide trip. He may do better here switching to Ricardo Santana. The horse I want to bet, especially after scratches, is Detail Oriented (#1). This colt has to break cleanly and get forward from the rail, but one of the speeds to his outside has come out of this race, and he is adding blinkers with the typically aggressive Ruben Silvera aboard. I like this horse getting some added distance, and he is receiving significant class relief after facing better horses in all of his recent starts. He's also coming back on relatively short rest, and he notably broke his maiden when returning in 15 days.

RACE 9

This is another race where I wanted the class droppers. Hamilton's Way (#3) is the horse to beat, but he's a little hard to take given his 1 for 19 career record. He was running on well in the late stages against a tougher field last time. That was just his first start since a trainer switch to Brad Cox, and he may have further improvement in him here. I just preferred Jurisprudence (#8), who finished right behind him in that same Oct. 10 starter allowance. This horse put in a dull effort, but I don't think he liked racing behind rivals and being asked for a kick in the stretch. He's more of a grinder who needs to get his run started earlier. He actually was finishing best of all across the wire last time once he finally got angled into the clear. I think it would help if he were to attain better forward position here, and Manny Franco should be a good fit for him. Ez Roll (#6) is mildly intriguing off the layoff and first off a claim for Ray Handal. He is protected with the waiver here and has plenty of back races against tougher foes that would make him a strong fit here. I could upgrade him if the price is generous.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I'm not trying to beat heavy favorite Collect the Data (#7) in the opener. I know there are some questions about her ability to handle the stretch-out to a mile, but she physically looks like a horse who should relish the added ground. She does her best work from the front end, and she should have an easier time establishing a clear lead over this longer distance. The primary alternatives I would consider are Embraceable Gal (#1), who is consistent but rarely wins, and Midtown Lights (#3), who had all the best of it up front when winning out of the Wilson Chute two back.

RACE 2

Cyclonite (#3) is the logical horse to beat after just missing in the Carle Place last time out. He didn't break that sharply, but got a good trip overall and was just nosed out after dueling with the winner. That was the day to have him at 20-1, and now he'll be a fraction of that price. Vacation Dance (#8) could be another popular option, especially now that he's ridden by Flavien Prat. He hasn't won in over 2 years, but he has been in solid form recently for Brad Cox. I didn't think he got an ideal trip last time when trying to rally behind horses throughout the stretch drive. Landing Craft (#1) is where I'll land, since he figures to be a better price than Cyclonite while also exiting the Carle Place. He was intentionally rated from the start that day, and wound up getting shuffled a little too far back. He had trouble establishing a clear path in upper stretch but finished with good interest. I think he deserves another shot sprinting here against a softer field.

RACE 3

I don't have anything too clever to offer here. I was pretty impressed by Disco Time's (#2) return victory in the St. Louis Derby. The 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure and similar 102 Beyer for that performance totally check out based on prior form and runbacks. It's possible that this lightly raced 3-year-old has just come into his own since we last saw very early in the season. He drew well outside of his main pace rival and seems versatile enough to handle this turnback to a mile. The other horse I want to use is Stars and Stripes (#4), though I don't love that he seemingly missed some time after that impressive allowance win at Saratoga. He gets a serious class test here after beating much weaker fields. Crudo (#6) is the Pletcher trainee that intrigues me more than Tip Top Thomas (#1) since the former runner might appreciate turning back to a shorter distance. He never seemed suited to races like the Belmont and Jockey Club Derby but has maintained his form reasonably well despite being targeted at the wrong spots.

RACE 4

Between the two favorites in this Pumpkin Pie, I mildly prefer defending winner Nic's Style (#1), who just shows up every single time and loves winning races. She hasn’t run a particularly fast speed figure since last year's Pumpkin Pie, but she has run well fresh in the past. Main rival Weigh the Risks (#8) is harder for me to trust even though she comes in with the best last-out speed figure. She didn't perform to expectations when she raced off Lasix in the Heavenly Prize two back, and I don't love that she's needed so much time between races. I want Scalable (#6), who makes her second start off a layoff for Todd Pletcher. She was very sluggish in the early stages of her Gallant Bloom return but she seemed to gain focus throughout the race and was really finishing in the lane, producing a 23.53-second final quarter while flying across the wire. She ran a career-best race going this distance in the Interborough last winter, and may be able to get closer to that form now that she has a start under her belt.

RACE 5

This 2-year-old maiden event looked pretty wide open to me. A few of the main players with experience exit that Oct. 10 race at this level. Sweet Rhythm (#10) is the logical choice after making a strong late run from far back for Linda Rice, who tends to get horses to improve second time out. I preferred Chatelot (#5) from that race, and could play her at anything close to the morning line odds. She was off last in the field and had to rush up on the backstretch before tiring. Gmax had her covering her quarter from the 5/8 to 3/8 markers in 21.39 seconds, which left her with little left for the finish. She should benefit from that experience here. Fraudster (#7) is an intriguing turnback for Todd Pletcher after she tired with a wide trip last time. I think she was a little overrated based on her third behind Deep Learning two back, but her pedigree indicates sprinting may suit her. I would also use first time turfer Three Sixty (#4), who was intended for grass on debut at Saratoga and ran well despite the surface switch. She traveled strongly on the turn and put in a decent stretch kick. Whle there isn't overwhelming turf pedigree, she looks like one who should handle it. I do wonder if her fast works may attract support in her direction.

RACE 6

Dreamlike (#1) will probably win this race if he continues his progression for Linda Rice. It's rare that you see a Grade 1-placed runner winning a first-level starter allowance race, but this gelding obviously went off form before his recent resurgence. He's supposed to love this stretch-out to 9 furlongs, but he will need some pace to develop. If I'm going to beat him, I'll do it from the front end. Commuted (#5) is one option, since he does own a victory going as far as 1 1/4 miles. He's won twice going a mile recently with good trips, but Rob Falcone does appear to have him back in solid form now. The horse I really want to bet is Re Markably (#2), who stretches out to this distance for the first time. He might look like a sprinter at first glance, but it made sense that he focused on shorter races as a 2-year-old, since those were the spots that came up. He stayed sprinting 7 furlongs upon return for Bill Mott his year, but he's struggled to keep up with the paces a couple of times. He usually stays on well at the end, and he's certainly bred to go longer. He's not catching the toughest field for this level, and I'm hopeful that he'll outrun his odds over this trip.

RACE 7

My primary opinion in this Hill Prince is that I want to beat Stars and Strides (#6). He's obviously one of the contenders, but he figures to be a pretty short price for a horse who doesn't have much, if any, speed figure advantage over this field. He got an absolutely perfect trip to win the Saranac, scooting up the rail when that was the place to be. At the expected odds, I believe he'll be an underlay. I think there are several options to consider at better prices. Noble Confessor (#1) is one of those. I can't say that I love his recent form, but his early speed could be an asset in a race lacking a clear pace scenario. The addition of blinkers signals an intention to go forward. Tiz Dashing (#9) hasn't yet finished in the exacta this year, but he's kept pretty tough company at the stakes level. He also had excuses in his last couple of starts, particularly last time when he was stuck 5-wide throughout in the Gun Runner. The horse that I would most want to bet at the morning line prices is Griffin's Wharf (#7), who didn't finish far behind Stars and Strides in an allowance race two back. Then last time he was chasing a pretty quick pace and was the horse who finished best among those who were forward early. He's another who has to prove he can get 9 furlongs, but the fact that he handled routes on dirt gives me confidence he'll appreciate it. For a crazy price to throw in, I'll even give a look to Lazlo (#4). I know it would be unusual for a horse to win a Grade 3 first off the claim, but this runner kept pretty strong company while facing older horses in the mid-Atlantic region this summer and fall. He may not be as overmatched as it appears, and I respect the ambitious placement.

RACE 8

I found this state-bred maiden race difficult to decipher. Jack's World (#13) becomes a logical contender drawing in, but it's still hard to take him at a short price from the widest draw. Among the shorter prices, the one that appeals to me most is Hellz Kitchen (#7), who was a little green in his only turf start sprinting. He handled the stretch-out last time on dirt, and should appreciate getting back on grass given his pedigree. Even first time starter Golden Marsh (#3) is one that I want to examine before the race, leaving open the option of upgrading him. David Donk is 3 for 19 (16%, $8.72 ROI) with first time starters in turf routes over 5 years, and he is a half-brother to multiple turf winner Barleewon.

RACE 9

This Mother Goose attracted an interesting mix of runners coming from different directions. The field is obviously headlined by Kentucky Oaks runner-up Drexel Hill (#9), but I wasn't a fan of her form coming into the Oaks and I want to see her produce that effort again over a dry track without a perfect pace setup. I'm a little less skeptical of the other Grade 1-placed filly, Ourdaydreaminggirl (#4), who has far more recent form. Some may disregard her as a Parx specialist, but she did place in a stakes at Aqueduct earlier this season. She's just another who needs pace ahead of her to be successful. I want the more lightly raced options who don't have as much graded stakes experience. Two of those are Cue the Duckboats (#7) and Fully Subscribed (#6), who finished first and third in a Sep. 1 Saratoga allowance. Cue the Duckboats gets a pass for her subsequent start on synthetic at Woodbine, and Fully Subscribed stepped forward second off the layoff at this distance last time. I'm using both of them, but my top pick is Being Myself (#1), who has been on a steeper upward trajectory for Cherie DeVaux. I really didn't think much of her first couple of efforts. Even her maiden win at Ellis was workmanlike, and she wasn't beating the strongest field. Yet she looked like a different horse last time at Churchill when traveling strongly into the race and sustaining a far turn move into deep stretch as she dominated a large field. That wasn't the strongest allowance race, but she did easily beat Low Key, who split Cue the Duckboats and Fully Subscribed at Saratoga. Being Myself drew well and should want every bit of this 9-furlong distance.

RACE 10

Beach Bomb (#3) is obviously the horse to beat in this Long Island, but I am getting a little concerned that she hasn't won a race since early in the season at Gulfstream. She's a horse who had previously utilized her early speed as an advantage, but last time she lacked the gate speed to get forward even as Javier Castellano hustled her early. She still ran on well while advancing outside without cover much of the way. If she repeats that effort, she's a win candidate, but I'm not keen to take too short a price. No Show Sammy Jo (#1) is one alternative to consider, since she nearly won this race last year and was pretty unlucky in defeat. problem is that she hasn't really reproduced that effort ever since, and she hasn't run particularly fast in any of her recent starts. I do like her stretching back out in distance, and she may finally be an enticing price again. My top pick Grayosh (#2) has admittedly been a disappointment this season, going 0 for 5 and failing to build up on her winning form from the Grade 2 Lake Placid last year. Yet I think there are some things to like about her coming into this spot. She was compromised by the slow pace last time, and finished best of all once asked for a kick in the final quarter mile. Prior to that she had raced at Kentucky Downs and was hampered by a similarly slow pace in the Matchmaker. I think Chad Brown and Flavien Prat have figured out that she's best when they hold her up and produce once late burst. She may have more success with that style stretching out, since progeny of Yoshida seem to appreciate added ground, and her second dam is a stamina influence, having won going as far as 12 furlongs in Europe.