TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 5

True Connection (#8) looks like a logical favorite after tiring late in a couple of efforts at this level in Saratoga. While I don't love that he's claimed away from Brad Cox, Rob Atras is coming off a pretty solid Saratoga meet where he finished in the exacta with over 50% of his starters. True Connection was involved in an honest pace out of the Wilson Chute last time, and should get a more comfortable trip from the outside in a race that doesn't appear to feature much early pace. Always Be Smart (#2) also makes his first off the claim, going out for Tom Morley, who is 10 for 43 (23%, $2.81 ROI) making that move in dirt routes over the last 5 years. He's not exactly a winning type, having won just once in 16 starts, but he was squeezed back at the start of that Aug. 14 race out of the Wilson Chute. He has plenty of prior speed figures that put him in the mix here, but his lack of positional speed is a concern. In a race where no one looks particularly formidable, perhaps Brave Bear (#5) can take a step forward first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. The barn has been cold lately, but has already come out firing with a couple of winners at Aqueduct after an unproductive Saratoga. Rudy is also getting this horse from a pair of trainers who haven't exactly been winning races in bunches lately, so it does feel like an upgrade. He got outrun going 6 furlongs last time, but I've always felt he's better with slightly more ground. He should get an aggressive ride from Ruben Silvera in a race lacking much pace, and this is the right level for him.

Fair Value:
#5 BRAVE BEAR, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

Slapintheface (#10) is a very logical contender in this state-bred allowance optional claimer. While he's settled for second far more than he's won over the past few seasons, his consistency is admirable. He's also shown some versatility of running style this year, which should help Manny Franco work out a trip from this wide draw. He was just picking up pieces in that Aug. 10 race that many of these exit, but he did finish well behind dominant winer Conman (#13), who is stuck on the AE list here. Conman would be dangerous if he drew into the field, but I didn’t think he really stepped forward off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci last time. He would also be stuck with a disadvantageous post position even if he participates. Cable Ready (#12) is another who was done no favors by the draw. That's a shame, since he was also hampered by a wide trip when last seen in that Aug. 10 allowance at this level, and still closed for third at a big price. He lacks the consistency of some others, but he's capable of making an impact here on his best day. Rabaja (#4) looks like a candidate to move forward out of that Aug. 10 affair where he returned from a 10-month layoff. He was chasing outside throughout before tiring late, and may save ground from an inside draw here. He's just run his best races with the early lead and he probably isn't getting it here. There figures to be at least a fair amount of pace in this race, and that's what my top pick American Grant (#7) needs to be most effective. He just never looked comfortable rating at the back of the pack last time in that Aug. 10 race that so many of these exit. Even though the fractions look fast, that field was pretty bunched and American Grant was pulling behind horses after a slow start. He ran well to win against a decent field two back, and generally has shown improved form since returning for his 5-year-old campaign. He retains one of the best turf jockeys in the colony, and goes out for a trainer who has subtly had a strong year.

Fair Value:
#7 AMERICAN GRANT, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

I'm not trying to beat likely favorite Classicist (#8) as he makes his first start against winners. While his speed figures don't exactly tower over this field, the 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he achieved for his maiden victory last time is very respectable for the level. It's also worth noting that he earned a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure during his 2-year-old season when chasing home future champion Sovereignty, so he still has room to improve now as an older horse. It looked like he relished the stretch-out to 9 furlongs last time, conquering that distance despite returning from a lengthy layoff. He had subsequently been entered in that Aug. 10 allowance race at Saratoga that a few of these exit but was a late scratch. He's worked three times since then, and appears to be tack on track for this step up in class. Classicist isn't a horse who needs the lead, but he does have the tactical speed to get forward in a race lacking confirmed frontrunners. The Pace Projector shows him with a slight advantage through the first half-mile, and whether he attains that position depends on who aggressive Kendrick Carmouche decides to be at the start, since this race does begin close to the clubhouse turn. I'm expecting a step forward here, and Todd Pletcher tends to do well when taking this path. Over the last 5 years, Pletcher is 12 for 38 (32%, $2.35 ROI) with last-out maiden winners making their following start in an allowance race between 8.5 and 9 furlongs on dirt. Among his main rivals is Tuscan Gold (#6), who has been pretty popular with the bettors since returning as a 4-year-old. He made it into some graded stakes last year and is still trying to build on the promise he showed back then. He appreciated some added ground last time, but was never a serious threat in a race dominated up front. I'm just worried that he might again encounter an unfavorable pace scenario here. Sturdy (#7) picked up pieces behind the top pick at this distance two back and can do so again after finally breaking his maiden last time. Makes Sense (#4) is another price I could try to get into the mix underneath, since he won going a distance that may be too short for him last time. He showed some potential in dirt routes before getting claimed by these connections, and may still have upside.

Fair Value:
#8 CLASSICIST, at 7-5 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 3

I don't want to settle for short prices on either of the likely favorites in this conditioned claimer. The Flying P entry of My Man Matty (#1) and Ride Up (#1A) is sure to attract plenty of support if both indeed start in this race. However, the participation of My Man Matty seems dubious considering that he hasn't posted a workout in 28 days. This lightly raced 7-year-old has had a litany of soundness issues in the past. He would obviously be getting class relief if he started here, but I still didn't like the way he stopped last time. Ride Up is a little more trustworthy, but his recent form doesn't make him all that formidable. Heavyweight Champs (#2) is the other favorite, and he also drops to the lowest level of his career after a series of disappointing results. He was a little wide last time, but I still wanted to see him hang around longer. A similar effort puts him in the mix, but I don't like that he's drawn inside of other speed here. Rudy Rodriguez's other horse Timaeus (#6) actually interests me more. He, too, has gone off form recently, but perhaps turning back to a sprint will wake him up. He has run well in prior starts going shorter, and he was basically eased last time out once it became clear that he was beaten. My top pick is the wild card Ace It (#7), who returns from a layoff for Carlos Figuerora. All of his prior races came during his 2-year-old season, so under normal circumstances you would expect this horse to be highly competitive with this field just due to routine improvement through maturity. Yet the long layoff and drop in for a bottom-level claiming tag raise some questions about how much he has progressed since last year. Watching some of those races, he actually held his own against some tough competition before tailing off. He also looked like a reasonably robust gelding that might not be overmatched against a group of older horses like this. He appears to be working well for the return, and drew well outside of other speed.

Fair Value:
#7 ACE IT, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 6

Sounds Like a Plan (#5) looks pretty formidable in this first-level turf allowance for New York-breds. He exits a race that featured a pretty fast pace that started to come apart in the late stages. Though, as fast as those fractions appeared to be, it's not as if the race was dominated by closers, as two of the horses who were chasing early hung on for second and third. Sounds Like a Plan was one of those, just missing to late closer The Paddock Pastor. That 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure does make him the horse to beat, and he also ran very well two back when just missing in the Rick Violette after setting an honest pace, earning a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The only thing that might beat him here is himself, since he can be tough to settle at times and is prone to running off in the early stages. I just have to take a shot against him with a horse that is better than he looks on paper. Cognoscenti (#6) has been disappointing in his last two starts at Saratoga since changing hands and getting sent to Miguel Clement. His race two back wasn't that good, but he did get too far back in the early stages. He ran better last time when stretched out to 1 3/8 miles. He was rated behind a moderate early pace and then launched a middle move while going very wide on the far turn before flattening out. He had shown ability in his first few starts and was so much better than the maiden field he beat in his lone start against New York-breds in May. He should have a chance to attain better early position here under Flavien Prat, and I don't think the gap in ability between he and the favorite is as great as it might appear.

Fair Value:
#6 COGNOSCENTI, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

A few of the key players in this New York-bred allowance optional claimer exit the Aug. 16 race at this level won by Cut the Cord. Aggregation (#2) arguably ran just as well as the winner on that occasion despite settling for second. He was contesting the pace while racing wide on the turns and battled on gamely to the wire. That was his first start in 17 months, but he goes out for a trainer who has excellent statistics with horses coming off lengthy layoffs of that type, so I'm not sure how much we can expect him to improve here. Get a Job (#6) didn't hang on quite as well as Aggregation after also contesting the pace in that Aug. 16 affair, but he may not have gotten as comfortable a trip despite saving more ground. For some reason, Irad Ortiz allowed him to lose position on the far turn, easing him out of a duel into the pocket before trying to come back along the inside in the stretch. That probably wasn't the right strategy in a race that was ultimately won with a late move down the center of the course. He's now making his first start off the claim for William Morey, who is a remarkable 7 for 10 (70%, $8.07 ROI) first off the claim at NYRA over the last 2 years. He also switches post positions, drawing outside his main pace rival. Another horse who could be aided by his draw is my top pick Buttah (#7). This 3-year-old has only faced older rivals on one occasion, when he stepped up to this level on May 17. He got run down in the late stages by the classy Whittington Park, but still held on well for second after chasing a quick pace. He found two turns a little too far for him in the New York Derby where he ran into the talented Train the Trainer. He got back into a more realistic spot last time in a race rained off the turf. However, he didn't get the best ride, as he took a right turn out of the gate to foul rivals and then was asked to open up at the half-mile pole, which left him vulnerable in the late stages. He now gets a significant rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche, and this outside draw should allow him to work out his preferred stalking trip.

Fair Value:
#7 BUTTAH, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 8

I acknowledge that Iron Max (#3) has been in great form since getting claimed by Brad Cox, winning both starts for the new barn while improving all the time. He's achieved those victories despite breaking slowly from the gate, making middle moves down the backstretch to get himself back into position. It's encouraging that he is able to win with such unconventional trips, but it's also fair to wonder if he'll be able to overcome those disadvantages against a tougher field like this. At a relatively short price, I'd be willing to look elsewhere. There are a couple of alternatives who interest me. One of those is Mo Kreesa (#1), who had been improving for his prior connections before getting claimed by Mark Hennig two back. When he made his first start off the claim last time, he looked like he had a chance to be the controlling speed on paper. However, John Velazquez showed no intention to go forward from the start, and as it turned out he might not have gotten there anyway since some unexpected speeds sent. He wound up between and behind horses, losing position before staying on late to only miss by a length. I think he's better than that, and he may benefit from more decisive tactics from new rider Ricardo Santana. My top pick is Annexperience (#10), who is one of a few exiting the Aug. 17 race at this level won by The Paddock Pastor. Things went wrong right from the start for this horse, as he was bumped and steadied out of position leaving the gate. He found himself too far back and then the jockey appeared to wrap up on him once he lugged in passing the quarter pole. He's clearly better than that, as he showed two back when breaking his maiden by nearly 8 lengths with a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number has been validated by runbacks, but this horse has to prove he can run that well without a perfect front-running trip. I don't totally trust him, but I do think he deserves another chance here.

Fair Value:
#10 ANNEXPERIENCE, at 5-1 or greater
#1 MO KREESA, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 9

I don't want to settle for a short price on Enlighten (#11), who just missed at this level when last seen in July at Saratoga. He got claimed that day by Tom Morley, who can certainly win off the claim on both dirt and turf. However, he's been claimed away from Todd Pletcher, and horses claimed from that barn are just 17 for 148 (11%, $0.91 ROI) in their next starts over the last 5 years. Enlighten also got the best trip of anyone last time, saving every inch of ground and cutting the corner in upper stretch as the pace fell apart. He still failed to win as the odds-on favorite, and there still have to be some red flags around him after he dropped last time despite showing superior form against tougher. I want to look elsewhere for more interesting prices, and I now scratch into Heathguard (#6), who would be more appealing if he weren't returning from a layoff. He ran pretty well when last seen at Tampa over the winter, holding his own against some decent allowance fields. He had his fair share of poor trips when he competed on this circuit last year, and is returning at the right kind of level. He just can be pretty pace dependent, and there might not be a ton of speed in here. I still think he's worth a shot at the right price.

Fair Value:
#6 HEATHGUARD, at 8-1 or greater