TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

It's hard to take short prices on horses like Churning Berni (#1), who took 24 starts to break her maiden and now may go favored in her first attempt against winners. She certainly deserves to be favored, since she's a standout on speed figures. Nearly all of her dirt Beyers are faster than anyone in this field has ever run. Her TimeformUS Speed Figures don’t sit quite as high, but still give her a decent advantage. The problem is that she has regressed slightly since the switch to Jamie Ness, and she beat an awful field when she finally did break through last time. I'm not way against her given the complexion of this field, but I will look elsewhere. I don't want Blenheim Baby (#6), who is slow and may be a similar price to the favorite merely because Prat is riding. The better alternative is Heavens Lee (#2). She, too, has never run a particularly fast dirt race, but at least she's been improving recently. She was in better form than ever when last seen on turf in the fall, and subsequently produced far and away her best dirt performance off the layoff last time. She probably does prefer grass, but I thought she ran well to just miss after attacking a fast pace last time. Her tactical speed may give her the edge this time.

RACE 2

Hip Hop Dancer (#2) ran well at this level last when only beaten by her superior stablemate Queen Sally. Her only poor performance since the switch to Ralph D'Alessandro came when she was against a track bias two back. A repeat of her last win makes her the one to beat, but she was 35-1 that day and now will be one of the favorites. I prefer main rival Raynam Hall (#4) for a few reasons. Unlike her main rival, this filly has never raced for a tag and will be dropping into the softest spot of her career. She will take some money based on her superior turf form, but her lone dirt effort last time is a lot better than it looks on paper. Firstly, she was traveling 3-wide against a rail bias that day, and even with that disadvantage she still ran a speed figure that makes her competitive here. She also was green reacting to kickback early, which put her out of position. This time that shouldn't be an issue since she looks like the main speed. She may be better on turf, but she still will likely be good enough to beat this dirt field.

RACE 3

The two most logical contenders are obviously Big Dig (#6) and Higher Force (#5). Anyone who has been closely following the track bias situation at Aqueduct will slightly prefer the latter, who had a valid excuse when beaten by Big Dig last time. Whereas that Joe Sharp trainee was glued to the rail for entire trip, Higher Force was chasing outside against the bias. I prefer the prior form of Higher Force anyway, and view her as the horse to beat in this spot. Yet I do think there's another possible player who may fly under the radar. I know I'm reaching a bit in making a case for Luckforyou (#1), but I believe this longshot has a chance to outrun her odds. It's easy for me to excuse her last couple of starts. She's simply not a one-turn horse, so she had no chance going 7 furlongs last time, and she was also out of position when trying a mile two back against a better field. She did run a race that puts her in the mix here when she broke her maiden last May, and that is notably her last two-turn dirt race. Some will view her as having gone off form since then, but she really hasn't been in the right spots. Stamina is her only weapon, and she finally gets to make use of it stretching out to 9 furlongs on dirt. Jose Lezcano typically gets live mounts for this underrated barn, and should have her forward from the start.

RACE 4

I can't take another short price on Good Cop (#1), who had his chance to win at a lower level last week and couldn't see it out despite getting a good trip. He was unable to even forge past his fainthearted stablemate Noguchi that day, and now is being asked to get 9 furlongs. He still is the horse to beat given his overall form, but at similar prices I would prefer Lucky Dragon (#3). This horse was out of position early last time without blinkers when trying this level, but finished with good interest. That was a better field than this one, and now he's putting the blinkers back on. He's handled 9 furlongs in the past, and should be forward throughout. Inonit (#2) is the other horse to consider, but he's had a few more chances and tends to need a bit more pace assistance.

RACE 5

I'm a little concerned about the inside post position for Ten Cent Town (#1), who runs his best races when he can be involved in the early pace. There appear to be some quicker rivals drawn outside of him, and he may be forced to rate from this rail draw. While he did get back to the winner's circle for new connections last time, but he still didn't quite run back to the 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned in that Dec. 13 victory, which was aided by a speed bias. Ravin's Ransom (#5) should be quick enough to edge ahead of that rival early if aggressively sent from the start under new rider Flavien Prat. He conceded the lead in a slow pace situation last time and possesses more natural speed than that. Stewie (#4) has shown the ability to stalk and win in the past, but he nearly beat the gate last time on Mar. 5, and Manny Franco seized the opportunity to send him to the lead. He got away with moderate fractions and had little excuse to get run down in the late stages. He now makes his first start off the claim for Orlando Noda, who does well with this move but will have to get this horse to move forward. I prefer Looms Boldly (#6), who ran down Stewie on Mar. 5 despite getting outrun to the early lead. Looms Boldly broke a bit flat-footed and was forced to rate behind the leader in the early stages. This 6-year-old has never been successful using anything other than a frontrunning style, so it was surprising to see him find another gear and run down the leader in the lane. That speaks to a horse who is rounding back into top form after a dry spell late last year. He's now first off the claim for very capable connections, and I like that he's drawn outside of his main pace rivals. He may be quick enough to make the lead, but he now has the option to sit and pounce after it worked so well last time.

RACE 6

It will be tough to deny Carvellian Quest (#3), who has been in excellent form since coming to the NYRA circuit this winter. He's run well twice at this level, arguably best despite losing each time. He was chasing outside against a rail bias two back, and setting an honest pace in a race that collapsed last time. He is now meeting a softer group for the level, and after the scratch of his main pace rival it's pretty hard to go against him in this spot. Whiskey N Soda (#4) was mildly interesting when there was an additional speed in the race, but it's hard to see him getting up at this distance without some help up front.

RACE 7

There is little form to grasp in this finale. Celeslia (#1) showed decent speed before fading on debut, and did herself no favors by hanging on her left lead through the lane. It would be no surprise if she were able to progress in her second start. I just don't like the field she's exiting, even acknowledging that this isn't much of a group either. Naturally first time starters must be considered in this situation, and the most convincing of those is Covert Affair (#8). Take Charge Indy is a 14% debut sire, and she's a half-sister to dirt sprint winner Consider It Done, who had success on this circuit. Ray Handal can win with firsters, especially in maiden claiming races, and the filly is drawn well outside with some decent workout times showing.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I'm not trying to beat Growth Equity (#3), who ships up from Florida and doesn't catch a particularly tough race for the level. He showed talent when finishing second on debut last summer at Saratoga, and did everything but win when he returned from a layoff in February at Gulfstream. He rallied gamely between horses to just miss. The form exiting that race has been mixed, but the speed figure was strong and he'll be tough to beat if he merely repeats that effort. I much prefer him to Chad's other horse, first time starter Steady Force (#1), who hasn't impressed me in his workouts down south. Perhaps the biggest danger could be Fightforallegiance (#5), who deserves another chance stretching out after keeping some strong company in his last couple of starts.

RACE 2

My primary opinion in this race is that I don't want any part of Good Skate (#2). From the drop in class, to the trainer switch, to the fast workouts off the layoff, the vibes around this horse are that the owner's looking to get rid of him. He is the class of the field based on his prior form, but he didn't return as nearly the same horse for an abbreviated 2025 campaign, and I expect that he's deteriorated further following a subsequent layoff. There are some horses in this field who are actually in good from right now. One of those is Apalta (#4), who won at the N2L level just 6 days ago. He's coming back on short rest, but Linda Rice has great statistics with this move. He wants every bit of the 9 furlongs, and should sit another good stalking trip in a race lacking pace. Military Road (#1) is Rice's other runner, making his first start off the claim for her. He obviously has prior form that will beat this field and was wide against a bias last time. The horse who might be in the best form of them all is Come to Papa (#6), who seeks his third victory in a row. He ran a lot better than it might appear when breaking his maiden, since he beat a track bias that day. He followed it up with a solid win stretching out to this distance, and horses have returned from that race to improve their speed figures. He's another with the tactical speed to work out the right trip.

RACE 3

I want the class droppers as opposed to the fillies stepping up off maiden wins. Cravings (#3) is the horse to beat after just missing at the $40k N2L level last time. She got bumped at the start but worked out a pretty good trip thereafter. A repeat of that first start for the Brad Cox barn will make her tough. I just thought Belloro (#4) had enough early trouble in that race to suggest that she could turn the tables here with a cleaner start. She really took the worst of it, breaking slowly and then getting steadied back. She made up some ground, but was left with too much to do. She has to break better because the start has been an issue twice in a row now, but there is supposed to be pace in here to set up her late run.

RACE 4

The two horses with the best form coming into this race are to be ridden by Dalila Rivera and Heman Harkie, two jockeys that rarely ride favorites, so I wonder how the public will approach the betting. Those horses, Miss Lao (#5) and My First Love (#6), both make sense but I'm not keen to take short prices on either one. Miss Lao has been knocking on the door at this level but perhaps should have won by now, whereas My First Love lacks the early speed to get position going these sprint distances. That makes me want to upgrade Maggie T (#4) even though she ran so poorly against these rivals last time. That was a muddy track and she really can't stand up on wet surfaces. She won in gate to wire fashion on fast going two back, albeit with the help of a track bias. I think Best Impression (#7) should have a better trip coming to her. She almost closed down Maggie T at this level two back and then regressed 8 days later off the layoff for a new barn. However, she was competing at a higher level that day and was never inside while racing against a rail bias. She's better than that and should rebound here.

RACE 5

A. P. Slingshot (#7) is clearly the horse to beat after just missing at this distance two back behind next-out winner Autumn's Turn. Some might want to hold it against her that she regressed last time, but she was always wide against the rail bias. In my opinion, she ran much better than Kat Stormy (#5) in that race, since the Mott trainee did eventually work her way over to the rail whereas A. P. Slingshot was always wide. They're logical, but I have an alternative opinion with one of the up and coming 3-year-olds. Tristar Fury (#8) has clearly been a work in progress. She was totally outrun going 6 furlongs on debut, and it also didn't help that she was taken wide over that rail-biased surface. She appears to want no part of sprinting, and the extra furlong obviously helped her out a bit last time. She again had no early speed, but was finishing well late before galloping out well. I like her finally getting out to a mile here, and it's not like she has to improve that much to beat the favorites.

RACE 6

Neigh Baby (#7) makes plenty of sense as the favorite. He ran pretty well in all three starts as a 2-year-old before getting some time off. He never made much of an impact going a mile off the layoff last time, but he was chasing outside against the rail bias. The runbacks from that race have been pretty strong, and it's not like he's meeting the toughest field here. I expect him to fare better on the slight turnback, especially now that he's second off the layoff. Moon On Fire (#3) is mildly interesting after chasing Napoleon Solo on debut last year. However, this barn doesn't have the best statistics off layoffs. The only alternative I strongly considered is Dixie Hex (#6), who debuts for Ray Handal. He has some decent workouts showing, but those drills match this trainer's Covert Affair, who disappointed at a short price on Thursday.

RACE 7

Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this allowance optional claimer, sending out the two likely favorites. Inefficiency (#4) seems like the horse to beat coming off a 6-length debut win for which she earned a solid 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She picks up Flavien Prat, who should make use of her ample early speed in a race that doesn't feature much pace. The drawback is that Chad Brown doesn't have particularly strong statistics with these types. Over the last 5 years, he is 2 for 25 (8%, $0.24 ROI) with 4-year-old and older debut winners making their second career starts, and 0 for 14 in dirt races within that sample. I still prefer her to her stablemate Filly Freedom (#2), who returns from a brief layoff. She was no match for a better group in the Grade 2 Mother Goose when last seen, so I can excuse that effort. I'm just not thrilled with her prior form, since she took advantage of a rail bias against a very weak field when she broke her maiden. I'm Buzzy (#5) is mildly interesting first off the claim for Linda Rice, but I wish there was a little more pace in here to set up her late run. I do like her turning back slightly to this one-turn mile. The horse I really want to bet is Metfardeeh (#6). She was disappointing in her first attempt against winners last time, but she was trying to stretch out to 9 furlongs and it didn't seem like the added distance really worked for her. She had broken her maiden going a mile with a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure and I believe that's a better representation of her ability. Notably that's the only prior race in which she did not draw the rail post position until this spot, where she again drew the far outside post. She seems like a filly who does her best running outside of horses, and she figures to get her preferred trip this time.

RACE 8

The horse I'm most against among the short prices is Counter Move (#2). He was supposed to have broken his maiden by now, losing as the favorite in 4 of his last 5 starts. There's other speed in here to keep him company up front, and he's a bit sketchy to see out the 7 furlongs anyway. Gualillo (#3) would be a deserving favorite here if his last race wasn't showing. His form prior to that, achieved against tougher company, had been superior to this field. However, the drop in class down to $20k last time looked a little suspicious, and his total non-effort makes you wonder if it was indicative of a problem. He's now first off the claim for new connections, but he's got Prat and will probably be overbet again. Army Proud (#1) is a solid, consistent option, but he's had plenty of chances at or around this level. I expect him to run well, but I didn't have much interest in betting him to win. My top pick is Sports Hero (#6), who should really appreciate this turnback. A mile was just too far for him last time, especially when he was aggressively ridden to press the pace. He's been a tough horse to ride with blinkers, getting keen in many of his races last year. However, they took that equipment off last time and he seemed a bit easier to maneuver. I'm hoping he's finally able to settle and finish this time, because he really hasn't run that much worse than Army Proud and he'll be a much better price.