TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I wasn't thrilled with the options in this opener beyond Last Man Standing (#6), who faced a much tougher field at the $20k level last time. He was off a bit awkwardly, which tends to be the norm for him, but stayed on belatedly to earn a decent speed figure. Drawing outside should mitigate his gate issues. I know he's going to be a short price, especially with Prat aboard, but I expect him to get the job done.

RACE 2

I found the contenders difficult to separate in this $30k conditioned claimer. Hard to Say (#1) arguably ran the best last race of any of these, and it's probably a good sign that he's moving up in class second off the claim for Linda Rice. He showed improved tactical speed that day, but I wonder if he can get as forward from the rail here. Math Tutor (#3) looks like the main speed, but I don't trust him to take them all the way. He gave that one standout performance when he won at 52-1 at Churchill last year, but his surrounding form isn't nearly as compelling. I'll instead go with Redacted (#4), who was facing better here last week when he found himself chasing outside against the gold rail. He's been too ambitiously placed since getting claimed last fall, and he's finally landing in an appropriate spot.

RACE 3

I have a ton of respect for the job that Steven Schauer does with his small stable, so I think Frizzante (#2) is intriguing first off the claim for that barn. I don't love that he lacks much early speed since there isn't much pace in this race, but he's obviously been in good form and his consistency makes him fairly reliable. I prefer him to Market Maven (#5), who finished ahead of last time. However, Market Maven got a great trip riding the gold rail before angling out, and he lacked much finish when produced. He's now claimed away from a sharp barn, and I wonder if he'll hold that form. I want Commuted (#3) on the class drop. He's also taking blinkers off and he just didn't look like himself in his last couple of starts with that equipment. Those were also incredibly tough spots compared to this one, and he's just getting the class relief that he needs. He's a horse who tends to get brave when he makes the lead, and he should be able to get forward here.

RACE 4

I don't have a major knock against Whiskey N Soda (#3), who seems like the horse to beat given his strong record at this distance. He earned a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his victory last time despite spending much of his trip on a dead rail. I still have some concerns about the overall quality of that race since the runner-up came back to disappoint on Thursday. He also figures to get overbet with Prat aboard. Bob John Ray (#4) is the logical alternative, but he got such a great trip in that allowance race last time, and didn't run nearly as well as the horse finished just ahead of him and got disqualified. I'll instead take a shot with Mr. Ripple (#2), who woke up with class relief last time. That was only a $10k claimer, but it was a pretty strong field for that level, and I liked that this gelding at least showed the ability to finish even after angling off the gold rail. This barn does decently off the claim, and he has proven he can get two turns.

RACE 5

The Chad Brown first time starters figure to attract attention in this maiden even with Tariff Mindset (#3) being the more highly regarded of the pair. That should be pretty obvious with Flavien Prat named to ride this one. Both of these firsters have pedigrees that are more geared towards turf, but Tariff Mindset has been training pretty well for his unveiling, getting the better of Pauillac (#6) in a couple of recent drills at Payson. I still have some questions as to how good either one is, and didn't want to take a short price. The logical horse with experience is Double Act (#1), who is starting to run out of chances but is probably facing the softest field that he's met to date. I thought he ran well last time, running on through the wire despite trying 9 furlongs for the first time. He adds blinkers again, and may be more forward from the rail. My top pick is Dr. Sinatra (#2), who should also be sending forward early. I don't love that he got run down last time, but it was his first time trying this distance and the pace was honest. He ran better than it looks in his debut, and I still think he has upside in his third career start.

RACE 6

Among the three favorites, the one I'm mildly against is Cool Andy (#3), who very much benefited from the rail bias on Feb. 5. He did beat a good field, but he needs to prove it to me over a fair track. Yo Banana Boy (#2) also competed under unusual circumstances last time, romping in a driving snowstorm. I still think his effort is more legitimate, and he could play out as the main speed once again. However, I would expect Sacrosanct (#6) to have something to say about that. This horse lacked speed last time, and just seemed a little dull off the layoff. He did stay on well late and actually galloped out best past the wire. Linda Rice has taken some time with him since then, and I think we're going to see a better effort in his second start back. He also gets former regular jockey Manny Franco back aboard, and he knows this guy needs to be ridden aggressively out of the gate.

RACE 7

I'm not trying to beat Irish Maxima (#3), whose dirt form makes her a standout in this field. She is coming off a layoff, but it appears that John Servis has been cranking her up with a series of fast morning drills. Servis has also been shipping to this circuit with intention lately, winning with 7 of his last 10 starts at NYRA tracks. She looks like the main speed, and should be tough to catch. I'll use Always Angels (#1) as the other horse, primarily underneath the favorite. She hasn't run nearly as fast, but I thought she really improved off the claim for Linda and I like the aggressive placement.

RACE 8

As is often the case in races during the winter at Aqueduct, Linda Rice has two strong contenders in this allowance optional claimer. Munnings Express (#3) has the stronger overall form, having hit the board in all 5 prior starts while progressing through her allowance conditions. She tried this level last time and was a good second to the streaking Bam's Bliss Kiss, who has now won 4 races in a row. I didn't love the trip she got, as she has more natural speed than Jose Lezcano used last time but she was probably going to be no better than second regardless. That one's main rival is her stablemate Nina Kay (#1), who may get overbet with Flavien Prat picking up the mount from Lezcano, who sticks with Munnings Express. She is stepping up in class after beating a weaker field at the N1X level. Her overall form is solid enough, but she has struggled to put top races back to back without a layoff. I'll try to beat these two with Majestic Return (#6). I know she looks too cheap for these on paper, but she did run her best race in a long time when trouncing low-level conditioned claimers last time. Perhaps that was a confidence boost that she needed after getting routinely beaten by tougher foes in open company races last season. Yet most importantly she's been claimed by a very sharp barn. Steven Schauer is 11 for 39 (28%, $2.49 ROI) with all starters on the NYRA circuit and 2 for 10 first off the claim. I like the confident jump in class and she should sit a good trip stalking outside.

RACE 9

There isn't much to say here. Cat Fast (#2) has run respectably against tougher fields than this one and should beat this group on the class drop.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Raghba (#5) easily beat two of her main rivals when chasing home next-out winner Lost Horizon last time. If she holds that form here, she'll probably win. It was a good sign that she was able to sit much closer to the pace that day, which should give her a tactical edge. That is, unless first time starter Inefficiency (#3) shows speed. It's hard to know what to expect from this filly, but Chad Brown tends to do well with older first time starters. She had reportedly trained well once upon a time. Chad Brown has amazing statistics with these types. He is 14 for 26 (54%, $3.60 ROI) with 4YO+ first time starters in maiden special weight races. Within that sample, he's 8 for 15 ($3.15 ROI) on dirt, and 4 for 5 ($5.64 ROI) in dirt routes.

RACE 2

I found it hard to really warm up to anyone in this maiden claimer. I suppose Linda Rice has a good shot to win this with both of her entrants looking fairly logical. I prefer Antietam (#4), who met tougher at the $75k level last time, and should be fitter as he drops down second off the layoff. Ice Shot (#5) earned a strong speed figure last time, but that number was hardly flattered when winner Sequential came back to disappoint on Thursday. Shellac (#2) is mildly interesting getting back on dirt, but I wonder if he really wants to go this far.

RACE 3

After the scratch of Apalta, I'm not trying to beat Linda Rice's other horse Fever Night (#3). He against the track on a dead rail last time, and didn't run as badly as it might look when losing at a short price. I didn't love the form of that race upon initially handicapping, but it was flattered when third-place Egyptian came back to run so well on Thursday. Fever Night has plenty of prior races that could beat his stablemate and should be a better price. Whitby (#1) and Maldini (#6) seem the two main rivals. The former has dangerous speed but has to prove he can get the distance, and I tend to think the Rice runner just has more ability.

RACE 4

There isn't much to say about this one. It appears to come down to the two speeds, Flat On (#3) and Laughing Boy (#5). I slightly prefer the latter, since Flat On was carried by a strong rail bias when he won last week. I also think Laughing Boy has the better overall form, but I don't want to make a strong push for either one. I just couldn’t get to anyone else.

RACE 5

Once again, I couldn't get creative here. Frankie Coffeecake (#5) ran well on debut at Parx and took a step forward when finishing a solid second here last time. He traveled well in behind the speeds and made a nice run along the rail before all of those contesting the pace got swallowed up by the closing winner. This field doesn't appear to be quite as tough, and he should be a handful. Mitolegayne (#1) may improve after taking money in his debut and finishing well behind the top pick. I just wonder about his trip since there's other speed drawn directly outside of him. Bold Love (#7) has only run on turf so far, but he has more of a dirt pedigree and goes out for a dangerous barn.

RACE 6

Linda Rice scratched one of her runners, but still has the likely favorite. Coquito (#3) owns solid recent form, having hit the board in 7 of her last 8 starts. She most recently won against $20k foes, but that was a conditioned claiming race and this might be a slightly tougher spot. She's claimed back by Linda Rice, who failed to get a win out of her when she previously had her in the barn during a couple of periods last year. I'll try to beat the favorite with My First Love (#1). This 7-year-old mare has been competitive at this level for a long time. It might appear that she's gone off form in recent starts, but she was against a track bias on Jan. 11 when she was glued to the rail throughout. That particular day didn't feature quite as strong a dead rail as the surrounding days, but it still wasn't ideal to spend all that time inside. She's sprinted recently, but 5 of her 8 career victories have come at this one mile distance. She's been claimed back by Rob Atras, who has had success with her in the past, and it's encouraging that he scratched her out of an easier spot last week for this instead.

RACE 7

I'm mildly against Undergrad (#4), the horse who was the overlay of 2026 when going off at 4-1 last time following a crazy six-figure bet on a rival from a CAW account. That was a very weak maiden special weight, and she won with the aid of a rail bias and slow pace. She still fits here as she steps up against winners, but she's no standout. Pace rival I'm Kidding (#7) has run some faster races, but she's hard to trust and was also aided by a bias last time. The horse with the best overall form might be Graceful Rose (#1), who has consistently faced some of the best competition. Her form isn't quite as consistent as she once was, but she did run well in a similar spot last time despite not getting much of a setup. There does appear to be enough pace in here to create fair race flow. If things come apart, even Fifi La Fume (#6) could get involved. I know she's been more of a turf horse, but it's not like she improved that much when she initially made the transition to turf last year. This could be merely a prep for turf, but she may just be a better horse in the overall sense these days and she's going to be a generous price.

RACE 8

Forgone (#6) figures to take some money after finishing a decent third at this level last time. He was a horse that got targeted at routes from the beginning of his career, and he physically looks like one that is better suited to going longer. I just don't want to bet on him improving at a short price. Toga Dan (#4) is the obvious trip horse. He had two major factors working against him in that last race. First, he was stuck on a dead rail early, and second, he got badly shuffled back in traffic on the far turn before rallying again late. He fits based on prior form, and can win this if he runs as well as last time. I'm using him, but I think they all could have a tough time catching Romeo Void (#7). This horse clearly improved since returning from a layoff last fall, and getting back on dirt appears to have been the key to finally unlocking his potential. He was beating a weaker field last time, but he absolutely dominated with a 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that number will put him right back in the winner's circle here, and he's drawn perfectly outside as a horse who isn't always quickest out of the gate.