TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I don't fully trust Big Hat Willie (#3), who seems like an all-or-nothing type. When he's good, he's probably too strong for this field to handle, but when he's bad, he's barely a factor. This is probably the right class level for him to bounce back, but I still didn't want to take a short price on him. I prefer main rival Beary Funny (#4), who is finally getting class relief that he needs. He's exiting some tough fields at the N2X state-bred level, and he was also done no favors by a very wide trip last time. He picks up Manny Franco and should get some pace to close into with multiple speeds signed on. Pace is a concern for Clancy Fancy (#5), but this horse has been rounding back into form since the acquisition by Ilkay Kantarmaci. I'll be using him as well.

RACE 2

I found this allowance optional claimer to be nearly inscrutable despite it featuring such a small field. I'll give the slight edge to Prince of Broadway (#6), who seems to be realistically placed in her return. Some may take it as a negative that she's offered up for the $100k tag, but how much can she really be worth at this point? I'm sure the connections would be thrilled if she got claimed even after a victory here. She stepped forward nicely in her second start last year, and has been drilling every 7 days like clockwork for this return. Law School (#1) seems most dangerous of the 4 shippers that challenge her, since she's supposed to appreciate turning back in distance after not really seeing out the two turns in some recent starts. I just wonder if she peaked over the winter. The horse I really don't want is Niche (#2), who got away with a slow pace at Laurel last time and has to prove to me that she can handle a more competitive scenario.

RACE 3

Linda Rice will probably win this race with one of her two starts, but neither one thrills me. I have a little more confidence in Will of a Womanne (#8), who has run several dirt races that should beat a field like this. I don't love that she ran so poorly when stepped up in class last time, but she's dropping down to a much softer level here. Chardonnay Derby (#5) was all-out to beat a very weak field last time, so I'm not as high on her chances. If there's an interesting longshot in this field, perhaps it's Dat Dares Right (#4), who has been rounding back into form since returning from a layoff this spring. She ran races on this circuit last year that give her a big chance in this spot. While her form tailed off, she obviously needed that return from the layoff when in for a waiver. She progressed last time despite breaking slowly, getting rushed up to lead early, and then steadying out late. She figures to take another step forward here and should be a fair price due to connections.

RACE 4

I acknowledge that Sadie Earp (#1) could be dangerous returning from a layoff for Wesley Ward. She showed some promise during her 2-year-old season before just failing to see out the distance when they stretched her out last time. If she builds on that early form, she's a major player in this field. However, she does have to improve significantly coming off this layoff, and she's probably going to get bet as if that's a given primarily due to her conditioner. Between the two likely favorite, Soloshot (#4) seems like a more reliable option after she ran a race last month that makes her competitive against this field. She is stepping up in class, but obviously improved first off the claim for Amelia Green. I actually prefer the other Amelia Green runner at a bigger price. Shore War (#5) had hinted at turf sprint ability early in her career for different connections, but she could never build consistent form due to layoffs or poor trips. She was acquired by new ownership last fall and turned over to Amelia Green, who appears to have turned her form around. She got very little pace to close into when she returned to turf sprinting last month, and she put in a strong finish to get up for third behind a pair of talented Welsey Ward runners. I don't think this field is quite as tough as that one, and she figures to outrun her odds against with a similar effort. The wild card that I want to include somewhere is Coach Albert Lady (#2). It's hard to know what to expect from this dark horse as she makes her first start outside of Puerto Rico. However, she did show some talent down there, and training video I've seen of her at Keeneland suggests that she has ability. Her pedigree also indicates that sprinting on turf may be right up her alley, so this placement intrigues me as she ships in to New York. I'm primarily using her with top pick Shore War.

RACE 5

I have nothing clever to say about this race. I guessed that Swiss Army Knife (#8) would find this level to his liking after he looked totally overmatched against tougher dirt fields early in his career. I just didn't see enough in the recent form of main rivals Private Flight (#3) or Sounds Like Fun (#2) to prefer them.

RACE 6

I'm not sure what to do with Prove Worthy (#4), who showed absolutely nothing in his return from a layoff last time. The fact that he was in for a waiver probably signals that he needed the race, but this subsequent drop in for a $10k tag hardly inspires confidence that he's going to move forward. High Tide (#1) is another going back in for a tag after a couple of performances where he was in for the waiver. In both starts he this year he traveled well and failed to finish, and I'm wondering if this 9-year-old has just seen better days. I wanted horses who could attain more forward position. One of those is Brave Bear (#3), who lacked speed last time but also was under no urging to go forward. That was probably due to the fact that Fernando Abreu trained the winner, who was also a speed. Brave Bear needs to be involved to have any chance, and he figures to get a more aggressive ride here as he drops in class again. My top pick is Screaming Uncle (#8), who also drops down from the $16k level. He's stretching out in distance, and he's never proven that he can get a mile. Yet he's bred to go this far, and runs his sprint races like a horse who might appreciate the slower, steadier pace of a route race. He's drawn well outside of all the other speed and gets an aggressive rider aboard. His recent form isn't that bad, and he should be a fair price.

RACE 7

Peyton (#3) seems like the most solid option in this maiden claimer after he ran a respectable race on debut. The only problem is that he was 53-1 that day, and this time he's going to be the favorite picking up Manny Franco. Those types usually aren't for me, but I do acknowledge he does appear to be the most likely winner. If looking beyond this horse, you're doing some guesswork, since the remaining options with turf sprint form aren't terribly compelling. I would look to a couple of first time turfers. The one with the best pedigree is Calvary Hill (#2), by good turf sprint sire Freud and a full-brother to turf stakes winner Orange Freeze. He's done little running in prior starts, but the surface switch could really help. I have a little more confidence in the ability of my top pick Beau Cheval (#6). His dam placed twice on turf without winning, and her best foal also ran its career top race on grass despite not winning. Beau Liam has only gotten two turf winners so far, but both won sprints. This horse has been entered for grass twice in a row, and watching him run, he has the distinct action of a turf horse. Javier Castellano has been riding the grass well lately, and I think this horse is pretty live making the surface switch.

RACE 8

Night Jasmine (#9) was somewhat unlucky last time when she broke from the outside post in an 11-horse field. Dylan Davis showed no intention to go forward early and she got hung mostly 3-wide on the turns, got steadied at the three-eighths pole, and still finished strongly for third. If she runs as well here, she can obviously win. However, she did unfortunately draw outside again. Main rival Athena's Fury (#3) has a much better post, but she has to deal with a lengthy layoff. She finished fourth against a pretty good field on debut, but didn't do that much running in the race, just picking up pieces late. The drop in for a tag off the layoff isn't a huge vote of confidence. I'll give one more chance to Valiant Diva (#2). I thought this filly was a work in progress last year, and she ran like a horse who needed a start off the layoff last time. I like that Tom Morley is adding blinkers, since she appears to need some help putting in a full effort.

RACE 9

This is a competitive race with many options to consider, but I feel pretty strongly that Concorde Spirit (#4) is the horse to beat. Some may hold his loss as the favorite last time against him, but remember that this horse despises a wet track. The fact that he ran as well as he did over a surface that he appears to detest, speaks to him being in top form. He's been off for a couple of months since then, but he probably will benefit from a break after racing 17 times in 2025. He has been working as if there was no issue, with consistent drills dating back to late March. I like him turning back to a one-turn mile here, and if he maintains the form we off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez, I think he's going to win. I'm most scared of Three B's (#7), who should appreciate getting back out to a mile. It's pretty clear at this point that longer is better for him, and he should also like returning to a fast track after never seeming to take hold of the slop last time. Other options like Ez Roll (#5) and Lotsa Trouble (#6) are in solid form right now, but their lack of early speed could be an issue in a race that doesn’t feature much pace.

RACE 10

This is another highly competitive allowance race where you can build cases for plenty of horses. Wit Storm (#1) is probably the horse to beat after taking to turf so well at Gulfstream when he broke his maiden. He has to translate that form to 6 furlongs, but he drew well and still has upside. I'm not against him, especially since he possesses the tactical speed to work out a good trip. There isn't a ton of pace in this race, but I'm not sure that I think likely speed Burning Bridges (#6) is good enough to win if others show up with their top efforts. The lack of pace is a concern for horses like Lawyer Mason (#2) and Sunday Boy (#7), both runners that interest me a bit. Lawyer Mason had to weave his way through traffic coming off the layoff last time, but closed well into a moderate pace. However, I do think this spot is tougher. Sunday Boy ran better than it looks in a pair of turf races last year, and is intriguing getting back on this surface. He just really needs a setup. My top pick is Stormy Birthday (#9). I know this horse doesn't appear to have as much upside as others, but he is returning for his first start as a 4-year-old, which is often when we see horses attain their best form. He put in nothing but strong turf sprint efforts in the second half of last season, and he has the tactical speed to work out the right trip with Javier Castellano climbing back aboard. The layoff is an unknown, but Robert Ribaudo's horses have been somewhat live lately.

RACE 11

I don't have a major knock against Sleep Walking (#8), who will be tough to deny if he runs as well as he did on debut. He hopped at the start and was behind the eight ball early in that race before making steady progress to get up for third behind a couple of established runners. This spot probably didn't come up that tough, and any progression could put him in the winner's circle. Leave Me (#3) showed promised on debut last year for Horacio De Paz before taking steps backwards, but he drew a tough post in his second start and then hated dirt. He can get back on track here off the layoff. My top pick is Ohonte's Own (#10), who makes his second career start for Tom Morley. This barn tends to get them to improve through racing, and this horse had a subtle tough trip on debut. He lost position on the second turn and got gradually pushed wider and wider approaching the stretch before showing some determination to rally into third. I suspect he's better than he looks on paper, and he figures to be a fair price.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I could only get a glimpse of an early workout for Tylos (#3), but she appeared to be much the best in company through a slow drill. She's bred to be a runner and looks pretty quick, so she's obviously the horse to beat on debut for Todd Pletcher. Goodbye to Romance (#5) shows a couple of very quick gate works, but Jena Antonucci runners tend to need a start first time out. I'll instead by Uncleshane (#2), who goes out for Mel Giddings. The training track appeared to be playing pretty quick on May 8, but that gate drill is still fast for that surface. He looked a bit rank, wanting to do more, in video of an early drill, but looks like one that should be quick out of the gate. He's certainly bred to sprint.

RACE 2

Anyway (#6) is hard to peg since he's been inconsistent and is cutting back from a mile. He did sprint effectively on debut, and ran respectably against a good field last time. I just prefer the early speed of Linda's other horse Southeastern (#3). He should be contesting the pace early, and has subtly stepped forward since the claim, particularly when Linda cut him back to sprinting last time.

RACE 3

Caramel Chip (#1) is the horse to beat based on his back class and the drop down to this $35k level, the cheapest tag he's run for in a very long time. I do think the class relief can turn his declining form around, and some of the Kantarmaci runners have done well leaving Oaklawn. I'm just a little worried about his lack of early speed from an inside post. I prefer main rival Motorcade (#7). This horse was away for nearly two years, but returned with his typical good effort off the long layoff last time. There were many reasons to doubt him, but he made an excellent appearance on track prior to that race, and chased gamely along the inside even after getting away from the gate a step slowly. Now he's drawn well outside, which should mitigate any gate issues. If he steps forward at all off that return, he's probably going to beat this field.

RACE 4

This race was pretty confusing, as it also didn't come up that strong for the level, and no one looks terribly compelling. I just didn't want to settle for short prices on horses like Pop Art (#1) or Three to G (#7). The former at least has some tactical speed, which could come in handy here. I just wasn't thrilled with her Tampa efforts, a few of which look better on paper than they actually were. Three to G has rallied from off the pace recently, and did finish well against a good field last time. However, she got a great pace setup, and was somewhat erratic through the lane. Agia Marina (#2) is more appealing to me as she makes her second start since the acquisition and trainer switch to Amelia Green. Connections paid $170k for her, so there are some hopes here, and she didn't run that badly for the new barn behind a stakes-quality winner. I expect her to run better here. I would also use Starship Athena (#6), who returns from a layoff for Michelle Nevin. She might need a start after being away for so long, and her running style could be a liability. I just thought she won pretty impressively in that maiden score at Horseshoe Indianapolis, albeit against a weak field.

RACE 5

I have some doubts about the horse I pegged as the morning line favorite in this maiden claimer on turf. Fraudster (#3) is making her first start for a tag after racing in a series of maiden special weight events for Todd Pletcher, and horses with this profile generally attract support. However, I don't like the steady decline in her form, and the fact that she totally lost her early speed when trying to sprint last time. I'm more interested in others with turf form. Key Actress (#6) and Magnum's Microbrst (#5) faced off a trio of times last summer at Saratoga, and the former finished just ahead of the latter on all three occasions. Both went off form at the end of their seasons, but Magnum's Microbrst did get things back on track when she returned from a layoff earlier this month. She can improve again second off the layoff, but I do still prefer Key Actress. She tried sprinting on synthetic late last season, but now she's returning to what she does best following a freshening. She might just be the best horse in this field. The filly I want to bet is Ocean Ripple (#2), who looks slower than her main rivals at first glance. However, she has had a series of excuses in her turf races. She faced some tough fields early on in her career, and ran better than it looks when closing into a slow pace at Gulfstream in March of 2025. She subsequently missed time and didn't get back on turf until last month at Churchill Downs. She only finished sixth, but she ran a lot better than that result would suggest. She was keen early in traffic and had to alter course while never really in position to stride until it was too late. She's dangerous shipping to New York for David Jacobson.

RACE 6

I'm a little concerned about the pace scenario of this race for likely favorite Illmatic (#2). He's a naturally fast horse who wants to lead, but there is other speed in here that should be pursuing him early. I'll be particularly interested to see how aggressive main rival Fireballin (#3) is just to his outside. He pushed a very fast pace that ultimately collapsed when last seen and seems to finally be rounding back into top form. They are taking blinkers off, which might foreshadow a change in tactics. That could work to his advantage, since he's had trouble finishing off all of his races since adding blinkers.

RACE 7

Red Burgundy (#1) is the one to catch, but it's hard to know what to expect from her as she stretches back out in distance off layoff. She needs things her own way up front, and there is some other speed in here that could try to go with her early. My top pick is Heavenly Light (#8). This filly started out as a horse intended for turf with Horacio De Paz, and now she's coming full circle as De Paz claimed her back in March and is putting her right back on turf after she ran on nothing but dirt for Brad Cox. Her grass races look slow, but remember that was 2-year-old form. She actually ran an underrated race behind subsequent allowance winner National Archive with a wide trip on Oct. 20, 2024, her last turf effort. That form could translate well here with any routine improvement, and she'll be a price.

RACE 8

City of Oscars (#6) and Rollin in Dough (#7) are the two obvious horses to beat based on their solid efforts at this level in April. The pace of that race was faster than it might appear, but City of Oscars didn't have an ideal trip trying to close from off the pace. The horse to upgrade out of that race might be Launch Control (#4), who had to work harder than expected to make the lead and understandably tired late in his return from a layoff. I won't be surprised when he wires the field this time. Master Freud (#10) is hardly impossible here based on his prior turf form, and his recent dirt race suggests he's in the best form of his career right now. I just have to bet some money on Go Irish (#8) finally getting on the turf. This gelding's female family is all turf, and his action has always made me think that he would appreciate this surface switch. His recent form hasn't been great, so perhaps they're just trying this now out of desperation. I still have to take a small shot at the price he's likely to be.