TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Friday, December 12
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
There isn't much convincing dirt form in this maiden claiming opener. Kid Rich (#1) took a ton of money to go favored in his dirt debut last time coming off a lackluster effort on turf first time out. He was never a serious threat, but he was chasing a fast pace and got pushed wide on the far turn. He should continue improving on dirt here as he drops in to face a weaker bunch. Never Say Uncle (#4) is mildly intriguing switching to dirt, since he actually has much more pedigree for this surface. I just thought he looked a little more turf-inclined on debut, and he also strikes me as a horse who will want to run route distances down the line. He should at least be picking up pieces late.
RACE 2
I had a hard time making picks in this race because it's hard to offer a strong defense of anyone. I supposeTomschickenfingers (#6) is the horse to beat in his current form, but I liked him getting back on turf last time since his prior turf effort was better than it looked. I still think he's a little better on that surface, but he might be good enough to win this dirt race that come up quite weak for the level. I'll give the slight edge to proven dirt horse Speightful Storm (#1), who has been facing much tougher fields at this level in recent starts. He's nothing special, but this subtle drop in class should be enough to put him in the winner's circle.
RACE 3
Former rivals Pinky Brier (#5) and St. Brigid's Cross (#6) are now stablemates with both having been claimed by Brad Cox. I doubt the two of them will hook up early given the common connections, which may give a slight advantage to Pinky Brier. I have to upgrade them after the scratch of Lady Rose. Rina's Revenge (#2) is the other contender to consider, but she's been pretty disappointing since an encouraging maiden win at Saratoga. She's obviously a contender after the scratch.
RACE 4
Tatania (#6) is likely to attract attention in this one-mile maiden affair as she stretches out for the first time. She's certainly bred to go longer, but I just wonder how good she really is. She was compromised by a slow pace on debut at Churchill, but I still wanted to see her show a little more spark in the stretch of that race. Chad Brown has good statistics stretching out second time starters, but this filly is liable to get overbet with Flavien Prat taking over the mount. My Sherrona (#2) showed dirt ability here last winter, finishing second in a trio of races, culminating with a stakes-placing in the Busanda. Her dirt return at Saratoga this summer was a step backwards, but she had a right to need that race while facing a tough field off the layoff. She's since gotten back into form on turf, but she should handle this transition back to the main track. A couple of other players are exiting the Nov. 12 race for these same conditions. She's a Gemma (#4) vied for favoritism that day, and showed improved speed to contest the pace before tiring to finish fourth. That was her first start in over 9 months, and she's likely to move forward with that race under her belt. She's drawn well outside of her two main pace rivals. The horse that I would rather bet from that Nov. 12 affair is Trango Tower (#5), who finished ahead of She's a Gemma and figures to be a better price once again. I thought she ran better than it looks to close into a slow pace two back, and last time she stayed on well after a wide trip. That most recent start was her first outing for Linda Rice's barn, and I don't think Linda had her in the stable for very long prior to that race. She had been training with Chad Brown's team at Monmouth as recently as mid-October, and showed no local works for Linda prior to that start. She had a right to need the race given the less than ideal preparation, and can move forward now that she's had more time in the new program.
RACE 5
In a race where I don't have a particularly strong opinion on any of those with experience, I'll try first time starter Pop Goes the Wiz (#1). This Fasig-Tipton 2-year-old purchase looked quick working 10 1/5 at the sale last year. It's obviously taken a while for him to get to the races, but he shows a quick gate drill back in October. He's out of a dam who on won debut, and David Duggan can have a first time starter ready to fire. The rail draw isn't ideal, but I can overlook that if he's a square price. Among those with experience, Fiddling Felix (#6) probably owns the best form. I don't totally trust this 0 for 10 maiden to finally find his way to the winner's circle, but he has faced some better field than this one in recent starts. He should also appreciate the cutback I distance after failing to finish going a mile the last two times. There really isn't anyone else in here that I want. Horses like Gualillo (#3) and Alias (#4) will take money because of connections, but the form for both leaves something to be desired.
RACE 6
It's worth just drawing a line through the last race of She's Complicated (#8), since her antics prior to that start robbed her of any chance to be competitive. She basically ran off in the warm-up despite the attempted restraint of Kendrick Carmouche, heading down the backstretch at a full gallop before getting briefly apprehended. She then took off again when pursued by outriders, completing more than a full circuit of the track before coming to a stop. She probably should have been scratched, because it was clear that she had little left to offer during the actual race. She had previously dominated a field of N2L claimers for this price tag. This N3L condition isn't quite that soft, but at least she's dropping down to a realistic level. This filly has shown herself to be pretty fainthearted, so she tends to run her fastest races when she's facing inferior foes. This is the kind of level at which her talent can shine, and the one-mile distance allows her to get into a comfortable rhythm. The others do little for me. Mitole's Girl (#5) is obviously taking a big class drop, but her form has really tailed off lately, and I'm not convinced that she's at her best going this one-mile distance. Queen in the Deck (#3) is mildly interesting on the class relief angle. Even though she wasn't facing the greatest fields in her last couple of starts, she did meet better rivals going back to the spring of this year when she was consistently racing on dirt. She's now making just her second start off the claim for dangerous connections.
RACE 7
Among the horses who could take money here, the one that I don't really want is Toga Dan (#8), who faced a weaker field at this level last time and still got run down despite taking a clear lead into deep stretch. Senegal (#2) finished ahead of that rival the last two times they met at the allowance level, and seems more appealing now that he's dropping back down to this level. Good Bali (#6) is another dropping in class. He's coming off a lackluster effort at Keeneland, but that was a speed-dominated race like so many two-turn affairs over the Keeneland dirt. Linda Rice places him realistically in his first start for this barn, and he would be tough if able to get back to either of his July dirt effort at Ellis Park. My top pick is Magni (#4), who makes his first start off the claim for Charlie Baker. His last outing was mildly disappointing, but he ran well two back when he got back on dirt at this level. As I've noted previously, this barn has really turned things around at Finger Lakes lately, and that success is starting to bleed onto the NYRA scene. Baker doesn't claim that much, but he does have solid stats with new acquisitions on the dirt. This is just the second horse he's claimed for this owner. The first one, Takechargesmiling, ran a career-best speed figure to just miss by a nose first off the claim.
RACE 8
Perhaps it's a fool's errand trying to beat Party in the Army (#5), who in all four prior starts has earned Beyers that are higher than those anyone else in this field has ever produced. His most recent start was probably his best, as he contested a fast pace and dug in to battle back when challenged by closers late, only losing a head bob in the end. I do wonder if we've already seen the best he has to offer, but he probably won't need to improve at all to beat this group. I just have some interest in the horse that dueling with him up front last time. Pure Mischief (#8) had encountered a very tough maiden field on debut when chasing home stakes winner Bravaro. He actually showed some late interest after getting outrun early. He displayed much improved early speed last time when gunned forward from the rail. He paid the price late, getting very tired in the stretch. However, I do think he could take another step forward here, utilizing the tactical speed more effectively from a better outside post.
Thursday, December 11
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Points Is Points (#1) is clearly the horse to beat among those with recent dirt form, but her merits are fairly obvious. She was the last horse to beat Fully Subscribed, who has since reeled off a pair of graded stakes victories. Yet she's going to be a pretty short price for a horse who has produced her best form around two turns and has never run nearly as well in one-turn races. She isn't catching the deepest field for this level, and her early speed should play well here, but I do have some doubts about her ability to produce her best form at this distance. I prefer likely co-favorite Maggie Go (#3). She has the ability to win a race like this, and I won't hold her last performance against her, since it looked like she had an issue. Switching to dirt is the major question mark, since she was more of a turf horse when competing in Argentina as a younger horse. Yet surface preference from South America doesn't always translate to North America tracks. I find it interesting that this filly is even entered here. Chad Brown is stabled in Florida through the winter, so she could have been targeted at Tampa or Gulfstream turf races. Yet instead she's trying dirt here. I recall that Chad Brown said prior to her U.S. debut that he wouldn't have been upset to see the Eatontown get rained off the grass because this filly trains so well on dirt. He just had to enter her on turf because it's what her form dictated, but it seems like this is what he always wanted to try.
RACE 2
Proud Foot (#1) seems like the one to beat as she drops back down to the level at which she won two back for prior connections. That was the first time in quite a while that she had raced so cheaply and she got the job done, though not in terribly impressive fashion. She faced better off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci last time, fading after chasing the pace outside. The drop in class should suit her, but I do worry that her form has been gradually tailing off over the course of the season. Main rival Problematica (#2) hasn't been seen since winning at Saratoga in August, and now she's drawn inside of other speed rivals who should press her early. She'll have her work cut out for her. I'll instead take a shot with Florida Flower (#4) at what should be a square price. I had thought she was pretty interesting last time, and she ran a nice race until fading past mid-stretch. She was reported to have bled in that race, and that tracks with the visual of her shortening stride in the final furlong. She had finished gamely in her two starts prior to that, albeit against slightly weaker competition. I don't mind her turning back in distance, especially if some pace develops.
RACE 3
Vettriano (#6) looks quickest of them all early, and Kendrick Carmouche should be able to control this race on the front end from an advantageous outside post. The Pace Projector suggests that Toxic Gray (#1) is nearly as swift in the early stages, but I wonder how aggressive they'll be with him considering that he's returning from a layoff in this spot. Vettriano has gotten back into top form in his last two starts, and was beaten by a stronger rival than he meets here in the Hudson last time out. He has to hold off main rival Victory Way (#5), but that one hasn't exactly been finding the winner's circle lately despite possessing competitive form.
RACE 4
Mo Curls (#1) is probably the horse to beat in a race lacking very much form at all. He's faced better competition in both prior starts, and is getting logical class relief after not really getting disgraced either time. He stays on at the end of his races like a horse that shouldn't mind a little added ground, but you do have to swallow a short price on a horse who still has much to prove. Drop Me a Dime (#4) might take money based purely on connections, since it seems like everything trainer John Ortiz sends out for Tristar Farm has been live. This gelding was outrun every step of the way in his turf debut, but he is by more of a dirt sire and is another who looks like he should take to added ground.
RACE 5
Spiritual Lady (#5) is probably the horse to beat as she drops back down in class after getting protected in all four starts since getting claimed by these connections. Her last race was disappointing, but she did have an issue at the start and that race was dominated by a horse who has produced some big efforts at Finger Lakes. She's dropping back down to the cheapest level of her career, and should be tough to beat if she can get back to her prior NYRA form. Though, I do have some concerns that she's lost the early speed that she once possessed, which may be an indicator that she's vulnerable here. There does seem like enough pace in this race to set up the closers. Dream On Cara (#9) is another getting class relief, dropping in for her lowest claiming tag. She won against conditioned claimers this summer before facing much tougher in her last two starts. I don't mind her turning back in distance. Book of Wisdom (#3) should be a bigger price and has some races in her form that give her a shot here, especially if the favorite fails to show up. She ran deceptively well to close into a moderate pace two back at this level, and last time she wanted no part of going a mile. She now gets an interesting rider switch to an apprentice who has had a lot of success out of town.
RACE 6
This starter allowance might be the most competitive race of the day, as you can make a case for just about everyone. House United (#1) is probably the one to beat given his consistent speed figures. He's generally gone a mile recently, but he did handle 9 furlongs when he tried it this summer. I won't be too hard on him for failing to hit the board last time, since that was one of the toughest starter allowance races run on the circuit all year. He's an obvious contender. I much prefer him to Hamilton's Way (#9), who could also take money first off the claim for Mike Maker with Flavien Prat getting aboard. He has handled dirt in the past, but he's more inconsistent on this surface and has never won over it. He's not drawn well, and isn't for me. Whiskey N Soda (#3) seems like a candidate to step forward second off the layoff. He was shrewdly spotted in a cheaper conditioned claimer where his connections could use the waiver option. He easily outclassed those horses, and should benefit from getting that run under his belt. My top pick is Neon Bordeaux (#5), who has some things to prove stretching back out to this distance, since his first attempt going this far was disappointing. However, I do think he's improved since then, and he is a horse who was targeted at longer races from early in his career. He has a massive stride on him, and physically looks like one that should want to run all day. He got pace to close into when he got up against claimers last time, but that was a strong race for the level, from which Frizzante came back to win. I think he can continue his forward progression for Rick Dutrow.
RACE 7
Pantherian (#2) is likely to be a clear favorite despite failing to cross the wire first on debut. He got put up by the stewards after getting legitimately bumped in the late stages of that race, but it's debatable that he was ever going by that foe. He now gets a rider switch to Flavien Prat, which will weigh down his price. He has upside, but Wamo (#3) might have run better when they met on Oct. 24, even considering the late contact. He was clearly best last time when breaking slowly and making a wide run into contention. He may need to run faster to win here, but he has been improving with every start. Gaming Wizard (#5) is one of two horses exiting the Sleepy Hollow, where he chased the pace while racing wide throughout before fading to fourth. He failed to build on his impressive maiden score when he demolished an off the turf field by over 13 lengths. I do think this horse is talented enough to win at this level, but I'm not sure that the turnback to 7 furlongs helps him. I do like the turnback for the other horse exiting the Sleepy Hollow. Time to Roll (#7) actually broke his maiden on that same Sep. 26 card as Gaming Wizard, and did achieved the slower final time and speed figure. However, I liked the way Time to Roll put away his pace rivals and opened up on that field in upper stretch before getting leg weary late. He was another horse contesting the pace in the Sleepy Hollow, from which early leader Fourth and One came back to win last week with a career-best speed figure. Time to Roll has never raced shorter than a mile, but he is by versatile sire Not This Time out of a dam who was a pure turf sprinter. I think this shorter trip should suit him, and now he's drawn well outside of all the other speed.
RACE 8
Perhaps this is the wrong time to give up on Interceptor (#1), since I've tried this horse in some much tougher spots recently. In retrospect, he's just not nearly as good as I had once thought. His lone victory was a lucky one, where got an advantageous forward trip over a rail-biased surface. He hasn't run nearly as well in his surrounding starts. There isn't much speed in this field, so perhaps he can get forward again. He fit well but won't be much of a price on the class drop. Turn and Count (#7) dropped to this level last time, but that was going the wrong distance. Nothing about this horse says that he should handle sprinting, so that was always a strange spot. He still ran even worse than you might have expected, so her has questions to answer. Yet he is first off the claim for a barn that has been on a roll lately. My top pick is Kavanaugh (#3), who scratched out of a tougher starter allowance recently to go for this more realistic spot instead. It took him a while to break his maiden, but he did so beating the same heavy favorite than Interceptor held off in his only win. It seems like Bruce Brown got this horse back on track, and now he's making his first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci, who is dangerous with this move. He showed enough tactical speed to suggest he shouldn't get outrun here.
