TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

If Momentum Files (#1) runs back to either of his one-mile dirt races from this summer, he's going to beat this field pretty easily. You do have to be mildly concerned about the fact that he was dropped in for a tag on turf last time, and this subsequent drop off the claim by Linda Rice. However, he's a maiden nearing his 6-year-old season, so it makes sense to get more aggressive with a horse like this. The only alternative I would really consider is Linda's other runner Sequential (#6), who hasn't shown nearly as much talent. He is protected with the waiver for a second time, and he may have needed his return last time where he lost some momentum in upper stretch trying to split a pair of tiring rivals.

RACE 2

There are only three options I can seriously consider in this maiden claimer. Solo Jim (#3) is probably finding the right field as he drops in for a tag for the first time. His recent form is a minor concern, but I won't hold it against him that he failed to handle turf last time. You also can be forgiving of that race out of the Wilson Chute, where he never got position and was hung wide, a recipe for disaster going that trip. His main rivals drawn outside both have experience at this level. Good Cop (#8) possesses the best early speed of anyone in here, but he had his chance to win last time. Lucky Dragon (#7) is mildly intriguing now that he's third off the layoff, but he needs to improve again if the top pick shows up with his best. Some may go for Metatron (#6) again after he's taken money in his last two starts, but this horse is very fainthearted and is getting bet on the basis of morning workouts that he never reproduces in the afternoon.

RACE 3

I again had trouble looking past the likely favorites in this Pebbles. Fast Market (#5) has significantly improved since stretching back out and removing blinkers. She validated her impressive maiden score with a strong second to Ready for Candy in the Sands Point. Cutting back a furlong should only help her, but she will be a much shorter price now that her form is exposed. I slightly prefer Peak Hype (#6) if these two are indeed similar prices. She has improved with every start, and hasn't gotten ideal trips on a few occasions. That was the case two back when she was steadied early and stuck behind a slow pace. Then last time she never got to save any ground, launching a wide far turn run that she sustained all the way through the wire. She is potentially pace compromised again here, but I don't anticipate her dropping as far off the leaders in such a small field. Beyond those two, Love You Anyway (#4) offers some appeal after getting a wide trip at Keeneland last time. I'm just not sure that she's quite as talented as either favorite.

RACE 4

Spirit Prince (#7) seems like the horse to beat based on the form he's displayed in his abbreviated 4-year-old campaign. He beat a decent allowance field off the layoff at Monmouth and then held his own in a stakes-quality allowance race at Kentucky Downs last time. This horse showed talent from an early age, and he might finally be putting all together as an older horse. You're just unlikely to get much of a price. Exact Estimate (#5) has races that could beat the favorite, but it's fair to question his current form after he's changed barns a couple of times. He did have a valid excuse last time when getting bumped and squeezed at the start before becoming rank. He's better than that, but he does have to prove he can get back on track for Brad Cox. I'm going for the horse with upside. Starship Titan (#4) certainly didn't start out his career like a horse who would be competitive at this level, but he has improved by leaps and bounds from start to start, winning back-to-back races at odds of 28-1 and 39-1. He won't be anywhere near those prices on this occasion, but he deserves to take money based on his last performance. He didn't get an easy trip, chasing a run-off leader and reeling that rival in before digging in to hold off a closer. He has the tactical speed to get position in this small field, and isn't catching the deepest group for the level.

RACE 5

There figures to be plenty of attention focused on first time starter Ottinho (#2), a half-brother to Horse of the Year and top sire Gun Runner and a full-brother to graded stakes winner Pretty Ana. A couple of his workouts match Hadrian's Wall, who finished a good third in his recent debut with an 80 Beyer. It appears that Chad Brown has some talented route-meant 2-year-olds that he's finally unveiling this fall, and it wouldn't be a surprise if this was one of them. I just don't need a horse debuting at a mile at a short price. Among the alternatives with experience, I'm interested in both horses coming out of the Epic Summer maiden race. Fightforallegiance (#6) is more immediately appealing as a Linda Rice second time starter. He's bred to be more of a sprinter, but he did stay on well late in the debut despite lugging in through the stretch. He was green that day, and should be more professional this time. Out of that race, I'm more inclined to bet Gulfy (#5), who hit the wire with that foe last time. This horse got a wide trip and did little running in his turf debut, but he's clearly more of a dirt horse. He was off slowly last time and had to be used to rush up into a stalking position inside. He struggled to hold that position on the turn but never gave up, running on well through the wire despite getting put in tight quarters late. He looks like one that wants the mile on dirt, and he can attain more forward position with a better break.

RACE 6

I had liked Big Magic (#1) last time when she was 6-1 and seemingly set to improve second off the layoff. She did take a step forward, but she got hung 3-wide much of the way, and was left vulnerable to late challenged as the race came apart. I thought she was a little unlucky at the time, but watching the race back I'm not sure that she actually ran any better than fourth-place finisher Dimensionality (#6), who is also back in here. That filly got bumped and turned at the start, putting her at the back of the pack early. She had to launch a wide move on the far turn and did well to get within a length of the winner late. She's obviously had more chances than Big Magic, and lacks much positional speed. Yet she has the ability to win here and will be a better price. I still prefer the lightly raced Ellesmere Island (#4) to both of these horses. She ran like a filly who just didn't have it all figured out on debut. She didn't have much early speed and raced a bit greenly in traffic before hitting her best stride too late. She feels like a horse who can take a big step forward in her second start, which is typical for Chad Brown runners. He's a pretty remarkable 41 for 117 (35%, $3.09 ROI) with maiden second time starters in NYRA turf routes over 5 years. And he's 32 for 80 (40%, $3.58 ROI) when those horses are returning in 60 days or less following their debuts (not the case for his other runner in here).

RACE 7

Oversubscribed (#7) will probably beat this field if she's same horse as last year and ready off the layoff. She had to make an early backstretch move in last year's Pebbles before staying on well for second behind a winner who had gotten very good last fall. Chad Brown usually has these horses fit off layoffs of this type, and the scratch of main rival Sirona makes her especially tough to beat.

RACE 8

I know she's never run a particularly fast speed figure, but I'm still not trying to beat With the Angels (#8). You generally want to avoid horses like this, who are going to be short prices despite not having any speed figure advantage. However, it's worth remembering that most of her prior numbers were achieved as a 2-year-old. While she didn't step forward much in her return last time, she got an educational trip that day, stuck behind horses early and not getting clear to do any serious running until the eighth pole. She was far more superior to that field than the 2 1/2 length margin would suggest. Now she's drawn perfectly outside after having to overcome the rail last time, and I expect her to extend her unbeaten streak to 6 in a row. The only alternative I really considered is Roswell (#6), who occasionally has run races that could compete with the favorite. However, she's been inconsistent, and doesn't figure to be in front of With the Angels early, which is a problem since that favorite is a strong finisher.

RACE 9

I didn't have a particularly strong opinion in this finale, other than thinking Cynane (#6) was vulnerable among the short prices. I don't really see that filly as one who will get better going 9 furlongs, and I thought the other short prices were more appealing. Siyouni Flash (#3) makes some sense after finishing third at this level last time. Cutting back slightly shouldn't bother her too much, especially if there's a little more pace in this race than she encountered last time. I made Trail of Gold (#9) my top pick without much conviction. She never saw the rail when trying to get a 3-turn 11 furlongs last time, but still was running on well into the late stages. I'm hopeful that John Velazquez can get her a bit more forwardly placed this time. This is the ideal distance for her, and the race didn't come up particularly tough for the level. The only price I considered is Curlin's Girl (#12), who is hardly trustworthy. She ran some decent races on this circuit a while back, but it's unclear if she's quite as good on turf as she is on synthetic, and she would still need to improve on her recent form.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

There isn't much form to grasp in this maiden claiming opener. I'm just looking for horses that I think can handle the distance, since so few have tried it. Ivy Girl (#2) at least has some experience going a mile, and did stay on mildly at the end of her Parx debut. I'm just not sure if she's quite good enough to win on this circuit. Cathedral Aisle (#7) will take money with Prat getting aboard. She made a nice move down the backstretch of her debut and was running on decently late behind a superior winner. She has plenty of pedigree to stretch out. The most convincing stretch-out, in my view, is Luciana's Honor (#3), who has sprinted three times but finishes like a horse who would appreciate more distance. She stumbled at the start last time and was rated too far off a slow pace before running on belatedly. I expect her to be more engaged here.

RACE 2

With the scratch of Tough Love Torres, this race loses all wagering appeal for me. The two fillies drawn outside seem like the best remaining options. Timia (#6) has that one race at Saratoga in August that would beat this field. She ran poorly subsequently at Parx, but that was a tougher spot. She's back at the right level switching to Carlos Martin, her 5th different trainer in the last 6 starts. Ragtime Sizzle (#7) is where I landed without much conviction. She was overmatched in her first couple of starts off the claim, but ran better dropped to this level last time. She may benefit from getting back on a fast track.

RACE 3

When I first looked over this race, I expected to be way against Blue Kingdom (#7) since his top speed figures were achieved with the aid of slow paces. However, he has markedly improved since returning as a 4-year-old, and he actually faced some decent fields in his last two starts. I don't mind him cutting back and he drew well outside of other speed in a race that doesn't feature an abundance of true speed. Trust Issues (#1) is mildly intriguing as a gate-to-wire threat, but he is stepping up in class off a perfect trip victory. I'll instead go to My Mitole (#6), who figures to sit a good trip just in behind the forward runners. He tried cutting back to this distance in June and was staying on well against a decent field of 3-year-olds. He subsequently got a break and should be fresh for this return. He did win off a similar layoff last fall, and I believe this is the right distance for him.

RACE 4

Scope (#6) looks like a probable single for many players in the early sequences. This horse technically crossed the wire first on debut, only to get controversially disqualified. Some will argue that he then validated that form when finishing fourth in the Pilgrim, though he was just picking up pieces late. I'm not sure how strong that debut race really was, and the Pilgrim has certainly not been flattered by runbacks. I'm not convinced this horse is as much of standout as the board is likely to suggest. There are two possible alternatives for me. The more logical one is Copa de Plata (#11), who has been gradually improving over the course of his three starts. He ran deceptively well while rallying through traffic two back, and then last time looked more professional with blinkers added, finishing well up the inside. I think he can continue his progression if able to get more forward early from this wide draw, but he will have to do it under a new rider with Civaci sidelined. The other runner I want is Print (#10), who just looked like a horse who really needed the experience on debut. He was pushed in at the start, and then just looked green into the stretch when steadying in traffic. This well-bred colt still ran on decently, and should do better here if he can get better early position.

RACE 5

I'm not getting creative here. Master of Arms (#6) towers over this field based on recent form, and Linda Rice wins with these aggressive dropdowns enough to not be overly concerned. She has had particular success with this move. Per DRF Formulator, Rice is 18 for 39 (46%, $2.69 ROI) second off the claim going from an allowance to claiming race over the last 3 years.

RACE 6

One Last Knock (#10) is the horse to beat, but I am a little concerned that she could have a tougher trip coming to her from this post after getting advantageous ground-saving journeys in her recent starts. That said, she has finished second to superior rivals in each of her two attempts at this level, and is a deserving favorite. Last time was the time to have Long Legged Queen (#5) when she won at 14-1, but she's coming back in another spot where she seems to fit well. The only concern is that she just can't get out of the gate anymore, and even broke slowly en route to her victory last time. Can she work out a good trip after a poor start twice in a row? The horse that I want is Willful Mama (#9), if she's actually a fair price. These connections do tend to get bet lately, but I can't see this filly vying for favoritism based on the recent form. Her turf sprints look too slow, but she ran better than it appears both times, especially on June 26 when she steadied on the backstretch and was compromised by a slow pace.

RACE 7

I'm not trying to beat Laurelin (#7), who has been nearly perfect through six career starts. The only blemish on her record is that second-place finish in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup last time, where she was allowed to race wider than the winner on the turns, and just couldn't quite reel her in late. She was impressive winning the Saratoga Oaks two back, and it appears that she only gets better with added distance. Her pedigree suggests she should want every bit of this 11 furlongs and then some. Kendrick Carmouche rides her with a lot of confidence, but he does have to find a way to save a little more ground than last time if she's to beat main rival Fionn (#4). That Cox filly was never in position to be successful in the QEII, but she was running on belatedly. She won going nearly this far at Kentucky Downs two back, albeit with a good setup. I'm just not sure that this race features enough pace for her. The alternative that I'll use to break up this pair is Scythian (#1). She showed her quality in that G2 Miss Grillo score as a 2-year-old, and was stymied in traffic when she got back on turf last time for her second start of the season. She's bred to stretch out and can be forward in a race lacking pace.

RACE 8

Long Pour (#2) is the horse to beat, but I'm a little concerned about him drawing inside of main pace rival Roofer (#3). That horse basically needs the lead to be successful, and I worry that Long Pour could get engaged with him if he doesn't let him clear. The horse that I want is Skytown (#7), who returns from a layoff as a new gelding. He has to get faster, but can do so with routine improvement as a mature 3-year-old. He faced some talent rivals early in his career as a 2-year-old and was hardly disgraced picking up minor awards. I can easily forgive the last race, since he looks like a horse that wants no part of a mile. John Terranova is 6 for 24 (25%, $2.87 ROI) off 150-300 day layoffs in dirt sprints over 5 years.

RACE 9

Ohana Honor (#4) looks like a deserving favorite in the Knickerbocker, dropping in class out of a series of tougher races. He will be seeking his first ever stakes victory, but this horse has held his own against much stronger graded stakes foes over the last couple of seasons. He has concentrated on marathon races recently, but it's not clear that he's really any better over those distances. He arguably ran the best race of his career when going just a sixteenth of a mile farther than today's 9 furlongs in last year's Grade 1 Manhattan. It might seem like he disappointed as the favorite when last seen at Keeneland, but he was pressing an honest pace that took its toll on the leaders. The only problem is that he has popular connections in his corner and likely won't be much of a price. Main rival Air Recruit (#7) is far more lightly raced. He missed all of his 3-year-old season and has made just three starts as a 4-year-old since just returning from a lengthy layoff this summer. He won his first two starts back before disappointing at Kentucky Downs, but it's easy to excuse that effort since he was caught in traffic for much of the stretch. He has dangerous tactical speed and could play out as the pacesetter. The horse I want to bet is Naptown (#8), who has been in the best form of his career ever since getting gelded back in March. He's won 4 of his 8 starts since then, and appears to be doing better than ever for Jose Magana, who claimed him back in June. He got up for fourth in the Woodbine Mile behind subsequent Breeders' Cup Mile winner Notable Speech back in September. Since then he's settled for minor awards in a couple of allowance races, but he's run better than the results suggest on both occasions. He was very wide throughout at Keeneland on Oct. 8, and then last time he was compromised by a slow pace before finishing best of all at Laurel. He picks up Manny Franco for this and figures to be a square price for a low-profile barn.

RACE 10

This is one of the most appealing races on the card, mostly because I'm not the biggest fan of Isadora Duncan (#12), who could vie for favoritism. She was green on debut and finished with some interest, but I don't think she's exiting a very strong race, and now she's stuck outside. I think the horse to beat is Soiuxse (#8) for Graham Motion, who has been firing with his turf runners lately. She ran well behind Tideoftime, who was hardly disgraced against stakes company in her next start. This is barn that gets them to improve through racing. Miss Brunellas (#1) seemed to take a minor step forward stretching out last time. She was keen before settling into a good rail trip, but she can do better in her second route attempt. The other horse I want to bet is Just Tell Anne (#6), who ran deceptively well in that same race. She was pressing the pace while race 3-wide without cover every step of the way in her turf debut. She challenged for the lead in upper stretch but couldn't quite kick on behind a talented pair of Chad Brown runners. She can do better here with a more assertive ride from Kendrick Carmouche, and I do like her as a turf horse even though speed figures suggest she didn't improve much last time.