TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

There is an error in the morning line for this race. The odds on Helen's Revenge (#3) are a typo. She is supposed to be listed at 7-5, not 7-2. I also believe I made a misjudgment when setting the line on D's a Rock (#1). The 5-1 price was intended at the time of submission, but in retrospect I should have made her the clear-cut second choice. Helen's Revenge is still the horse to beat based on her superior recent form. Linda Rice has managed her career very well, taking advantage of every available condition as she's gradually moved her up the class ladder. D's a Rock looks like the lone speed on paper, and she has the back class to beat a field like this if William Morey has her right off the layoff. While I think she's dangerous, she's not particularly trustworthy and could be an underlay. Graceful Rose (#4) might be the right horse to take. She's a strong fit based on recent form and she may get somewhat overlooked based on her slight regression last time. She was compromised by a slow pace that day and never had much of a chance. I worry that she could be similarly pace-compromised as she was last time, but the price should compensate as the likely third choice.

RACE 2

I'm not trying to beat Sandtrap (#5), who looks like a future graded stakes horse for Chad Brown. She's coming off a lengthy layoff, and he's taking the logical step of letting her clear her first-level allowance condition before testing deeper waters. She looked like something special in her debut in England as a 2-year-old and then held her own against future Breeders' Cup winner Gezora in her only other start. She's a full-sister to Grade 1 winner Carl Spackler, and couldn’t be working any better for her return in the new barn. It helps that she catches a rather ordinary field for the level.

RACE 3

Chad Brown is likely to pick up a few wins on this card, but I didn't think he had to add this race to the tally. His contender Filly Freedom (#5) is fairly logical turning back in distance, as I don't think she really appreciated going longer. However, I've never been her biggest fan, and there isn't that much pace in this race to set up her late run. I do think Sarir (#3) is a candidate to bounce back at a better price after she was caught chasing wide against the rail bias last time. However, it's tough to look past her 1 for 18 career record. I want to bet Romantic Dancer (#2), who got a rare bad ride from Flavien Prat last time. She looked like the speed in that Mar. 13 affair, but wasn't aggressively ridden away from the gate and got caught in the pocket behind a moderate pace. She was still locked in behind horses in upper stretch and was just never in position to be effective. Ruben Silvera should send her forward this time, and she's got several prior races that can beat this field.

RACE 4

Solitude Dude (#1) is very much the horse to beat in this spot. He's dominated all three of his sprint victories and he was hardly disgraced finishing a gallant third in the Fountain of Youth last time behind two of the top choices in the Kentucky Derby. I think it's admirable that his connections have decided to turn him back in distance out of that race, since this is clearly what he wants to do. However, I do have some concerns about how much that Fountain of Youth effort took out of him. He didn't work back for a month after that race, and didn't look quite as sharp in a recent drill I watched. He was expected to tackle the Pat Day Mile, but now lands in this soft spot instead. I had wanted to try to beat him with Igniter, but will not just pass the race after that rival's scratch.

RACE 5

The majority of the entrants in this New York-bred turf allowance are older fillies and mares, but I think the younger 3-year-olds might have the edge here. The horse to beat is Cosmic Candy Girl (#9), who returns from a layoff following a productive 2-year-old season. She never finished out of the exacta last year, and just narrowly lost the Key Cents Stakes in her final start of the year. She got spun wide into the clubhouse turn that day and never saw the rail, so ground loss probably made the difference between winning and losing. She appears to have worked well during her brief preparation for this return, and it's natural to expect some improvement through maturity. I just prefer fellow 3-year-old Unmiztaken (#6) at a slightly better price. She also showed some talent last season, running well despite not winning her only turf start on debut. She set an honest pace and dug in gamely to just miss in a race that was falling apart in the late stages. She subsequently got rained off the turf and still won next time out. Her connections then took a shot in that lucrative New York Stallion Series stakes at the end of the season where she was hardly disgraced staying on for fourth after getting off to a poor start. That effort gives me some hope that she'll handle added ground, and her pedigree also offers hope. She's out of a dam who was a 5-time turf route winner, and is a half-sister to multiple turf route winner Miztertonic. This filly has the early speed to control the race on the front end. The other one that I would include is Lady Wisdom (#3), who gets back on turf for the first time since early in her career. She finished well after a wide trip in her lone turf start. I could also use Downtown Channel (#7) underneath. She is the one that Horacio De Paz leaves in this race, perhaps signaling that she's ready to fire off the layoff.

RACE 6

There's plenty of guesswork to be done in a maiden race that has very little prior turf form. In fact only two horses in this field have prior experience going two turns on turf, and I don't really like either one of them. This feels like a prime opportunity for first time starters or first time turfers. In the former category, Homewood Hustle (#6) is the newcomer likely to attract the most support. He ships into New York for Will Walden and has plenty of turf pedigree. He would be no surprise, but this barn is just 2 for 23 ($1.00 ROI) with first time starters in turf routes over 5 years. I'm more intrigued by a couple of surface switchers. The one that I've been waiting to see get on turf is Classic Commander (#1). I made a note when I first watched this horse last fall that I was anxious to see him get a chance on grass. He obviously never had that opportunity when he competed through the winter, but I'm encouraged that new trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci is getting him on grass at the first opportunity. Classic Empire is an underrated 12% turf route sire, and the dam was a 2-time turf winner who was best on grass. His movement is all turf, with big, loping action and suspension to his stride. I expect him to like the grass. The other horse I want to use, Pilot Knob (#8), hasn't shown as much ability in his dirt races, but that's only going to drive up his price. He's another with plenty of turf pedigree, by 13% turf route sire Flameaway out of a turf-winning dam. He's a half-brother to 2 turf winners including a 6-time grass winner. It also doesn't hurt that an experienced turf jockey like Kendrick Carmouche takes the mount.

RACE 7

Likely favorite Kenny Be (#4) should benefit from his return race last time. He was a bit tentatively handled on the far turn before coming on again between horses in the lane. He's another that is somewhat questionable at the 7-furlong distance, but his best race can obviously beat this field. I put Leo's Reward (#3) on top because he just seems to fit the race very well. There's speed to set up his late run and he can handle this unique distance. He will have to overcome a layoff, but David Donk's runners have come back fresh and ready to fire since the start of his meet. If he shows up with his best effort, he should win. After the scratch of Fireballin, I would also upgrade Guilty (#7), who should sit a great trip either on the lead or sitting just off a moderate pace. I'm not sure he's good enough to step right up and win at this level, but the scratch does help his chances. 

RACE 8

Intellect (#5) is going to be a popular single in all of these late sequences, and for good reason. He finished second in three consecutive graded stakes last year, culminating in a runner-up result in the Grade 1 Fourstardave last summer. There is no one else in this field with that kind of class, and you generally don't have to worry too much about Chad Brown runners coming off layoffs of this type. The only real danger that I can see is if a horse gets loose up front. That could potentially be Exact Estimate (#7), who does his best running from the front end. Some might perceive him as coming into this race in poor form, but he has had legitimate excuses in each of his last three starts. Two of those were on dirt, and he's just not a very good dirt horse. His last turf race is also a toss, since he got squeezed back at the start and raced rank and wide throughout before understandably fading. This will mark his first turf start for the Brad Cox barn and I expect that he's going to get back to form following a freshening. Will that be good enough to beat the favorite? I'm not entirely sure, but I'm willing to bet on that possibility at the expected price.

RACE 9

I didn't pick him on top, but I do think Irish Goodbye (#8) is the horse to beat after running deceptively well on debut. He didn't break sharply, and made a long backstretch move, advancing up to contest the pace before briefly taking over in the lane. He tired late, but still fought on valiantly for second as the race collapsed. The only issue I have with that performance is that I don't think he was facing the strongest field and this spot may be tougher. The horse with the highest ceiling in the race may be Max Money (#3), if he can get back to his runner-up effort in the Sleepy Hollow last year. It's just hard to trust him to do so, since he was vanned off that day and was a shadow of his former self in his lone subsequent start. Perhaps he'll be ready to rebound off the layoff but I'm not totally convinced. I'll instead go with the upside of George's Gold (#5), who returns from a layoff after finishing behind Max Money in his lone dirt start last year. He was pretty green that day, shifting about and struggling with lead changes, but he showed some ability running in spots. He didn't take to turf next time, but his pedigree leans more dirt and I like him cutting back here. He seems like a horse with room to improve if he's matured mentally during the time away.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

The two favorites in this $10k claimer both have some questions to answer dropping in class. Current Climate (#3) was a regulatory vet scratch out of a conditioned claiming race going a mile on Wood Memorial day. She's going to compete here instead, dropping down even further in class. She might be the best horse in this race, but the gradual decline is concerning. I'll give slight preference to Literary (#6), who was in way over her head when facing starter allowance company last time. She's placed much more realistically for her second start off the claim, but the drop is mildly concerning with her as well. I'll try to wire this field with Problematica (#4). She's faced much more competitive pace scenarios in her recent starts than she catches in this race. She is also dropping in claiming price, but the class relief is much more logical for her, considering that Wayne Potts only claimed her for $12,500. I thought her last race was actually pretty good, and cutting back to 6 furlongs should help.

RACE 2

This allowance turf sprint drew a compact but competitive field. Modarosa (#2) owns the best recent form, but she's primarily competed over route distances, which may have dulled her speed for this turnback in distance. The reliable turf sprinter with form on this circuit is Mz Big Bucks (#3), but she has to prove that she's still capable of producing her best form after missing the entire 2025 season. I'm going to try to beat the favorites with So Sophia (#5). There doesn't appear to be a ton of true turf sprint speed in this race, and this filly once had the gate speed to get clear of this group early. She obviously hasn't shown that quickness in her last couple of starts, but one of those was on synthetic and she had trouble at the start of the other one. She's now moving into the barn of an underrated trainer, who notably doesn't drop her in class.

RACE 3

Galinda (#5) will probably beat this field if she gets back to the level she achieved in her first couple of efforts, and turning back in distance should help her do so. I just really didn't like her last race, since she got her preferred trip and still couldn't beat an inferior field. She was riding a rail bias when she won the East View, so her form is slightly enhanced by circumstances. Pinky Brier (#5) was no match for Galinda when they met in that East View, but she lost the race soon after the start when she was slow getting into stride and always out of position. She subsequently rebounded in a big way when dominating starter allowance competition last time with a very competitive 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Even her Jan. 10 effort where she defeated the classy Hot Currency would make him a tough foe for today's favorite. She's claimed away from Brad Cox, but Gustavo Rodriguez is 9 for 30 (30%, $3.68 ROI) first off the claim over the last 2 years.

RACE 4

This two-turn dirt optional claimer might be the most competitive race of the day, as you can build a decent case for most of the field. I don't have a major issue with potential favorite Fast and Frisky (#1), who draws yet another advantageous inside post position and should have a good trip coming to her. She was mildly aided by an inside bias when she won two back on Feb. 13, but she backed up that improved effort last time with another victory. I had previously questioned her ability to get 9 furlongs earlier in her career, but she seems to have no issues going two turns anymore. She makes her first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci, who does pretty well with this move. Many of the other contenders that I found myself considering could be compromised by a lack of early pace. I'm Buzzy (#6) certainly fits at this level and has a right to improve as she makes her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. However, she lacks any early speed at this stage of her career, and she could leave herself with too much ground to make up. I'm hoping that my top pick Just Music (#3)can use her inside draw to attain decent early position just in behind her uncoupled stablemate. This mare was claimed by Ilkay Kantarmaci two back and was just placed in the wrong spot in her first outing for the new barn last time. She's not a horse who wants any part of sprinting 6 furlongs, and she was predictably outrun throughout. Now she's stretching back out to her preferred distance and she's been competitive going long at higher levels than this in the past.

RACE 5

My primary take on this race is that I don't want to settle for a short price on Goncora (#7) for Chad Brown. This gelding has faced inferior competition down at Tampa, and took advantage of some favorable pace setups last year. His most recent victory was a step in the right direction, but I still think he'll be overbet here. I much prefer Griffin's Wharf (#8) of the short prices. He got in a prep on dirt last time, so he should be fit second off the layoff. He ran some nice turf races last season, including that good third behind subsequent Grade 1 winner Salamis in the Gio Ponti. He's not catching the toughest field for this level and should appreciate the class relief on turf. The only price horse that I could take as an alternative is Two's a Crowd (#6), who ships up from Florida for trainer Derek Ryan. I always give this barn's horses a second look when they come to New York, since Derek Ryan is 17 for 90 (19%, $5.08 ROI) on this circuit over the last 5 years. He once had some ability on dirt, but he's recently transitioned into a turf horse and has taken to the surface quite well. He was a dominant winner against weaker two back and last time should have won after getting a less than ideal trip. The form from that race has held up well, and I don't think it's as steep of a class hike as some might perceive.

RACE 6

I spent far too long looking at this race trying to come up with a creative option, only to circle back to the likely favorite. Russi (#10) just looks too good for this field. He's primarily faced tougher New York-bred second-level allowance horses on the turf over the last couple of seasons. He had some trouble staying on the track last year, but he ran well when last seen on turf in a couple of tough spots at Saratoga last summer. He got in a prep on dirt last month, running better than you'd even expect based on his prior dirt form. This is the softest turf race he's attempted in quite some time, and he seems ready for a step forward. City of Oscars (#7) is another logical option getting back to turf. I'm not sure why Mark Casse ran him in a couple of dirt routes recently, but he's clearly better on grass, and this distance suits him. He just needs more pace to develop up front than the top pick does. The only mildly intriguing longshot I could see was Free Dance (#3), whose lone turf race is a bit better than it looks. I'm just not sure he's good enough to win at this level even on his best day.

RACE 7

The two likely favorites in this Biogio's Rose both have some questions to answer. That's especially true of Bam's Bliss Kiss (#5), who seeks her sixth consecutive victory. While I respect her recent career-best form, I've never viewed her as a horse who wants a mile, and there is other speed to keep her honest up front. She's the horse to beat based on speed figures, but I'll be surprised if she produces her best form at this distance. Her presence also complicates the task for main rival Collect the Data (#7), who does her best running from the front end. She's another that has been in great form, and she's proven at the distance. However, she has also taken advantage of some great setups that may not be available to her here. I see a couple of viable alternatives. Midtown Lights (#3) obviously has to get faster to beat both favorites, but I do like her returning to New York-bred company. She faced a tough rival down at Gulfstream last time and should be fitter sharper off the layoff. My top pick is Walk With Me (#4), who has twice been beaten by Collect the Data in recent starts. Yet she has run better than it looks in each of her last three starts. She overcame a speed bias on Dec. 13 to get up for second, then was one of the few horses to beat the rail bias on Feb. 11. Even her last race is somewhat underrated since she never had great position locked in traffic behind a moderate pace. She hit her best stride late when finally angled into the clear. This time she figures to get the setup she needs, and I'm expecting a career-best performance.

RACE 8

This finale seems totally wide open since so many of the contenders are coming off layoffs. I still didn't want to settle for a short price on the most logical horse with recency, El Paco (#6). I just didn't think he was facing the strongest field at this level last time, and this spot came up so much deeper. He's the one they'll have to catch, but I thought he was beatable. Both Vitalize (#2) and Chris's Song (#8) have some past races that are superior to El Paco's last race form. I prefer the David Donk runner a little more given his stronger body of work, but both are dangerous off the layoff. At a bigger price, Foto (#3) seems like a horse with upside as he returns from a layoff for David Duggan. He got a pretty awkward trip on debut and is a better horse than he showed that day. I don't care about the turf race, and he's returning at a realistic level. Though, I generally prefer horses with recency and I do think there's one with a strong upset chance. Inonit (#7) has certainly had his opportunities to break through, but he's been in deceptively strong form lately and might be ready to earn that diploma. He showed some signs of interest in his first two starts off the layoff this winter, and he was primed to win last time. However, a less than ideal trip cost him the victory. He was traveling best of all around the far turn, clearly full of run. However, his jockey was far too confident, and then steadied when he finally tried to commence his rally in upper stretch. The horse still almost bailed him out with a terrific late run. This spot is tougher than that one, but I do think he's going to appreciate the slight turnback in distance and he gets a rider upgrade to Ruben Silvera.