TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Many handicappers will lean towards Doc Sullivan (#4) in this stallion series stakes opener since he's been more proficient at this 7-furlong distance than his main rival. However, I don't think the gap in sprinting ability between these two is nearly as wide as the result of the John Morrissey would suggest. Bank Frenzy (#2) got away to a poor start that day and had to rush up along the inside while never in a comfortable position over a muddy track. He's better than that, and asserted his class when holding off Doc Sullivan in the Empire Classic last time. I'm not someone who believes that Doc Sullivan is compromised at 9 furlongs, so I'm not expecting some dramatic form reversal as they both cut back in distance. They're clearly the two horses to beat, and the proven winning spirit of Bank Frenzy forces me to give him the slight edge. General Banker (#3) is mildly intriguing as an alternative, sine he badly needed a freshening after a year of constant racing. He's run well fresh before, but I'm not sure that even his best effort is quite good enough to win at this level.

RACE 2

Amundson (#6) has to be considered the horse to beat as he nears the end of his tenure at NYRA with his 10-year-old birthday approaching. He switches into the barn of Chad Summers, who is just 2 for 42 (5%, $0.34 ROI) first off a trainer switch over the last 5 years. Yet I don't want to put too much stock in that stat, since this horse is so consistent, and has proven that he belongs at this level. I have some more questions about the other potential speeds in this race. Dot's Dollar (#2) ran poorly last time but should appreciate cutting back to 6 furlongs. Divine Leader (#3) would be tough if able to repeat his last effort, but I'm not sure what to make of the layoff and use of the waiver in his return for a new barn. I prefer Laughing Boy (#4), who has to prove he can sprint going this short, having never done it successful before. Yet his last race at 7 furlongs is a bit better than it looks, since he got a pretty passive ride from Dylan Davis, rated from the inside while taking plenty of kickback. He traveled willingly behind an honest pace and was finishing best of all through traffic at the end. Perhaps he can improve on that result in his second start off the claim for Mike Miceli.

RACE 3

I have little insight to offer here. I couldn't find a good reason to try beating Liberty's Advance (#7). She had run well in her sprint debut at Finger Lakes, finishing with interest behind a talented rival. She was never beating Letmecounttheways in a race dominated up front last time. While she does have pedigree to get that distance, stretching all the way out to a mile in just her second start was asking a lot. Cutting back to 6 furlongs makes sense at this stage of her career. The first time starters didn't do enough for me. Kaz Farm Girl (#2) doesn't have much pedigree, but shows some decent works and these connections can win on debut. Braverthanubelieve (#9) also goes out for a decent debut barn with some sprint pedigree. Neither one is convincing enough to upgrade above the favorite.

RACE 4

This is another race where I couldn't look beyond the favorite. Sunday Girl (#7) held her own against a much tougher field than this last time out, and appears to be back in top form after she got derailed this summer. I suppose the upgrade to Flavien Prat is appealing to some, but she's a straightforward horse to ride who has generally gotten good trips. I don't think Flavien needs to do anything special to guide this heavy favorite to the winner's circle. The alternatives just don't do much for me, and the outside post should keep the favorite out of trouble.

RACE 5

Here we have another Katie Davis to Flavien Prat rider switch, and that's likely to drive down the price on Wamo (#11), who might have been the horse to beat regardless. The only thing Katie did wrong last time was using a left-handed crop just before the wire, which caused the interference and disqualification. He's drawn well outside and his improved tactical speed should put him in an advantageous position, but I don't view him as some standout in this field. Party in the Army (#2) seems like an obvious rival after twice hitting the board in stakes at Finger Lakes. However, he broke very poorly last time and that's a concern as he breaks from the inside with blinkers now going on. I prefer the other Jeremiah Englehart trainee Mission Critical (#3), who figures to be a much better price. This colt ran into a tough field on debut, finishing well behind his stablemate. He didn't take any money that day and surely needed the start. Another second time starter that should offer even greater price appeal is Pure Mischief (#1). Like the Englehart runner, this colt took no money on debut, going off at 81-1 against an extremely tough maiden field. While he lost by over 10 lengths, I thought his performance was actually quite encouraging. He was kept very wide after breaking from post 12, losing significant ground to avoid kickback on the far turn. Yet keeping him out in the clear turned out to be unnecessary, as he showed no fear rallying behind a wall of horses in the stretch. He was finishing best of all among those outside the trifecta, and it should be noted that the top 3 finishers in that maiden race also completed the trifecta in next month's Sleepy Hollow. I know this is a low-profile barn, but the horse drew much better this time and has a right to improve significantly with that experience under his belt.

RACE 6

This two-year-old maiden special weight features just three horses with experience, all of which rate as contenders. Hedge Ratio (#1) might go favored given the presence of Flavien Prat, who has been a magnet for wagering support in recent weeks at Aqueduct. This horse did seem to appreciate the switch to dirt last time after putting in a dull effort in his debut on grass. I'm just a little confused by this subsequent turnback in distance, since this colt is bred to go longer. The rail draw could complicate his trip, since he doesn't seem quick enough to get forward position. Dark Assault (#10)possesses superior tactical speed and drew best of all in the outside slot with a long run to the first turn. He just lacks the upside of the other two experienced options. He's already gotten three races under his belt and his progression seemed to stall last time when he faded to finish third in a similar spot. I prefer Our Magical Moon (#8), who returns from a brief freshening to make his first start since the summer at Saratoga. He switched to dirt in his second start and got involved in a fast pace that ultimately came apart. The fractions of that race are color-coded red in TimeformUS, and his pace-upgraded 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts him right in line with the two favorites even though his Beyers are a bit lower. Three horses who were within 3 1/2 lengths of that pace at the half-mile have run back, and they have each improved their TimeformUS Speed Figures by 13, 25, and 26 points. I'll focus my wagers on the Casse runner, and will try to spice things up by including a couple of first time starters. Complex Charlie (#3) is bred to be a talented sprinter as a half-brother to stakes winner Firecrow and stakes-placed National Identity, and Carlos Martin can win with a first time starter. Feroce (#4) goes out for underrated two-year-old trainer Chad Summers and looked pretty quick working 10-flat at OBS June earlier this year.

RACE 7

There is very little early speed signed on in this 9-furlong turf event, which might lead some handicappers in the direction of Cynane (#8), and the presence of Flavien Prat makes her an attractive option. However, we have seen the paces come apart in most of the turf races run over the outer course this week, and I have serious concerns about this filly getting 1 1/8 miles over a course that may be tiring. I some late runners who can see out the distance. Trail of Gold (#4) is obviously one of those after closing well going 1 3/8 miles in her most recent start. That may have been a bit too far for her, especially since she never got a chance to save any ground. I like her turning back slightly and she ran pretty well to beat stakes company two back. If they're similar prices, I would slightly prefer Siyouni Flash (#7), who might possess a more potent late kick. She closed strongly into a slow pace to break her maiden going farther than this two back, and then last time she stayed on resolutely in another race that didn't feature much pace. She also never got a chance to save ground in that spot, going 2 to 3-wide throughout. This distance over a demanding course should suit her. Even Perky (#9) offers some appeal based on her strong finishes from the spring at Tampa. Those races came against weaker, but she has a right to do better now that she's towards the end of her 3-year-old season. I had initially given a long look to Curlin's Girl (#1) when this race was first drawn since she can be forward, but I'm not sure that's the running style you want anymore. She also may not be good enough.

RACE 8

This is another race where I couldn't get past the logical options. Linda Rice appears to hold a pretty strong hand. I suppose Ranger Battalion (#7) is the more reliable of her two runners since he has proven form at this level. He is turning back slightly in distance but that shouldn't be much of a concern. He ran especially well last time when making the first move to take over at mid-stretch in a race that completely fell apart in the final furlong. I just think there's more upside with Linda's other horse Coffee Talk (#9). He will surely beat this field if he runs back to the 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 94 Beyer that he earned breaking his maiden at Keeneland. I know that he was with David Jacobson for that start, but he only spent one race in that stable so I'm not viewing him as damaged goods. This horse always showed potential for Brad Cox, and may have been mismanaged targeting route races. He's bred to go shorter if you dig into his female family, since his dam is a half-sister to G1-winning sprinter Better Lucky and turf sprint stakes winner Final Frontier. It also doesn't hurt that Linda Rice is 13 for 37 (35%, $3.02 ROI) first off the claim with last-out maiden winners on dirt, and 6 for 15 (40%, $3.83 ROI) moving those horses up into allowance company over the last 5 years. The other ex-Jacobson runner Remi's Moon (#1) is also mildly interesting, since he didn't get the best ride last time at Keeneland. I just have greater concern that he may lack upside coming out of that barn.

RACE 9

I don't enjoy defaulting to horses like Knightsbridge (#2) at short prices, but it's hard to find appealing alternatives in this race. Bill Mott appears to have found a pretty soft spot for him to make his return, and the Pace Projector indicates that he's quick enough to control this field from the front end. It's obviously a concern that this son of Nyquist can't seem to stay on the racetrack, needing layoffs in between each of his starts. However, he does appear to be training well for this return, even if I doubt the veracity of that 57 4/5 gate work at Saratoga earlier this month. (It's nearly impossible to go that fast in an Oklahoma gate drill.) The only alternative that I even considered is Twenty Four Mamba (#3), who was probably best in defeat when he last tried this distance in August at Saratoga. However, that came at a lower level, and it's unclear that he's still in that kind of form for the new barn.

RACE 10

The outer turf profile with the rail at 36 feet that I noted earlier makes this race especially difficult to handicap, since most of the contenders possess early speed. Seemingly something has to give if they all go, especially over a course that has been favoring closers. That's an issue for Unmiztaken (#9), who seemingly has to send from an outside post. She ran well on debut, but I wonder if she was cranked to win that day. Copper Caduceus (#3) would fit this race pretty well if she could get back to the style she used on debut. Last time she chased wide and was lugging in through the lane, so a change of tactics could suit her here. I had initially liked Joyful Dancer (#4) a bit more, since she was involved in a fast pace that came apart last time. I just wonder about the overall quality of the races she's exiting, and a demanding course may not suit her. I still will use her at what figures to be a square price. The horse that I feel best about is Ticket to Ride (#1). She ran her best race when rated before making one late run at Saratoga, so I'm hoping they get back to those tactics here. That race came for a different barn and she's clearly disappointed for Saffie Joseph since then. Yet I believe she's exiting stronger races than everyone else in this field, as horses like Fancy Lights and Dancingwithdestiny are better than the rivals many others have faced. Some subtle class relief and change of tactics could finally put her in the winner's circle.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I'm not trying to get too creative here. Linda Rice appears to have made a shrewd claim with Atarah (#5), who won that $50k claimer and thus becomes eligible for this starter level on the NYRA circuit. Some may view it as a negative that she's claimed away from Will Walden, but horses first off a claim away from Walden are 10 for 38 (26%, $2.37 ROI) over 5 years. Linda Rice also sends this horse out for a pretty sharp owner who has most of his horses with Saffie Joseph. She has to get the distance, but she should be able to do it against this field. 

RACE 2

None of the short prices in this starter optional claimer do much for me. George Weaver has a pair of contenders in St. Brigid's Cross (#4) and Zuby (#5), but I'm not keen to take shot prices on either of them. St. Brigid's Cross did beat today's rival Pinky Brier (#1) when she broke her maiden, but that rival may have improved since then and is now first off the claim for Brad Cox. I would prefer her. Zuby was intended for turf on debut and ran well on grass in the Awad, but that was a very weak stakes for the level. I'm going against these logical sorts with Caradise (#2), who obviously has to get faster to win this race. Yet she's had three months off since she broke her maiden at Saratoga, and horses can progress quite a bit between August and November of their 2-year-old seasons. She ran better than it looks against a very tough field on debut at Saratoga, and then easily won her second start dropping in class. That form was flattered when runner-up Fonzi Angel came back to win her next dirt start, improving her Beyer by 19 points. She should be a fair price again for low-profile connections.

RACE 3

I had picked Sabby Sunset (#2) before the winner of her last race came back to improve considerably beating winners on Thursday. I had thought Sheer Will was a tougher rival than any of her competitors in this spot when I first handicapped it, and that certainly appears to be the case in retrospect. I'm not sure that we're going to get my 3-1 ML in light of Thursday's result, but I do view this filly as the one to beat. I liked her at a bigger price last time off some less than ideal trips on the way into that race, and she merits respect coming right back in a similar spot. 

RACE 4

The speed of Certified Loverboy (#2) has to be respected given the overall lack of pace in this race. Yet paces rarely seem to develop as they seem on this circuit, and I wonder if someone will go forward to keep him company early. I also have some concerns about this last race. I know he was setting a pretty quick pace for the distance, but I didn't like that he faded behind fellow pace rival Mr. Papagiorgio in what was a weaker race at this level. I much prefer Bramito (#4), who seemed to really appreciate this distance when he first tried it at Saratoga back in June. He was more engaged in the early stages that day and finished very strongly once guided into the clear. I also thought he ran a lot better than it looks in his subsequent start at this distance behind Malarchuk. That was a forwardly dominated race and he was always out of position racing very wide on both turns. He's run well around one turn since then, performing better than it might appear last time when closing resolutely up the rail despite getting put in tight quarters for nearly the entire stretch run. I like the switch to more aggressive rider Ricardo Santana, and Gustavo Rodriguez seems to excel in these dirt routes. The other horse I'll throw into the mix along with that runner is Bourbon Day (#1). His best dirt form has been achieved over wet tracks, but he's had some excuses in his dry dirt races. He's a little interesting switching into Linda Rice's barn following a freshening.

RACE 5

Escape Hall (#8) was a $42k two-year-old purchase who started out in auction-restricted races and is now dropping down to a logical level since we probably won't get more of the auction condition races getting written. He showed some minor improvement on turf last time, but he had run nearly as well in both prior dirt starts. Even that regression second time out isn't as bad as the result suggests when you consider the fast pace of that race. He drew perfectly outside and figures to finally earn that maiden win at a very short price. Winston D (#3) is one of the more logical alternatives to consider as he also drops down out of a tougher spot, but he hasn't shown as much talent as the favorite yet. Some may go to first time starter Whiskey Stones (#5), who debuts for capable first-out trainer Ned Allard, but I wish he had shown a bit more speed in his workouts.

RACE 6

This is another 2-year-old maiden race where I didn't want to get too creative. True Legend (#5) is probably the one to beat despite losing at a short price last time. He showed speed from the inside but then was taken in hand to come around the leader before taking over in upper stretch. I didn't like the way he faded in the final eighth of a mile, but perhaps that bit of early maneuvering detracted from his finish. He did put in a solid effort on debut. I prefer the upward trajectory of main rival Thirsted (#7), who stayed on well for second after getting a good trip in his turf debut. I would have preferred him stretching out off that performance, but there's no time to be picky at the end of turf season. I know he only got a 50 Beyer for that last start, but winner Chummers returned to run 13 points faster in defeat next time, so it was probably a better maiden event than the figures suggest. Dillielo (#6) is the other logical option to consider, but he lacks speed, has failed to progress since his debut, and has just been so one-paced in his races.

RACE 7

With She's Complicated getting scratched from this race, Sassy Princess (#3) figures to be a short price based on a narrow loss at this level last time. Stretching out to a mile shouldn’t bother her since she handled going longer on turf. She makes some sense, but you have to swallow a shorter price now that her dirt form is exposed. I'll now upgrade Best Impression (#1), who showed more fight than I had ever seen from her before when rallying through traffic to finish second at this level last time. I've always thought she's been pretty fainthearted when push comes to shove, but she may finally be putting things together.

RACE 8

Grace and Grit (#3) handled both dirt and the 9-furlong distance of her last race better than I could have expected. She traveled well into the race despite taking some kickback, but just couldn't find an extra gear in the late stages. She should appreciate the significant cutback to a one-turn mile. I still have some doubts about her overall upside as a dirt horse, but I suppose she's the horse to beat in this spot. Half-sisters Dream on Cara (#5) and Cara's Dreamweaver (#6) both had legitimate excuses in their last races. The former dwelt badly at the start, spotting the field at least 6 lengths. She actually made a decent middle move before flattening out. I don't know if she really wants to go a mile, but she's otherwise been in career-best form. Cara's Dreamweaver was no match for Grace and Grit last time, but she was compromised by a wide trip. Both would offer some appeal at double-digit odds, but I question their quality at this level. My top pick is Graceful Rose (#2), who has proven in the past that she can handle this one-mile distance without issue, including when trying it on this circuit. She's primarily sprinted in the last year, but I think stretching back out could suit her, especially since it will allow her to sit a bit closer to the pace. She was arguably best last time when closing strongly despite having to alter course through stretch traffic. Now she's racing second off a layoff with room to move forward.

RACE 9

The scratch of likely favorite Before the Wind reduces my enthusiam for this race. Focus now shifts to horses exiting that Oct. 26 race at this level. Among those, Blame It On K J (#5) ran the best race after going wide on both turns while others saved ground. I just question the overall quality of that affair given the longshot winner and blanket finish. The horse I want is Sammy C Note (#9), but he may now vie for favoritism. He stretches out off a pair of turf sprints, running well in both of those starts while clearly appreciating the switch to grass. He showed good speed sprinting, but he still strikes me as a horse that is naturally suited to going longer. He has a long, steady stride on him, and his dam was a 10-time turf route winner. He can attain good forward position on the stretch-out in a race where some of the plodding types might be pace-compromised.