TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

Likely favorite Yo Leven (#8) will be a handful if she can get back into top form here. However, she was pretty disappointing when last seen here in June. She just never looked comfortable over a sloppy track, and may do better if it comes up fast on Thursday. It also helps that she's now dropping down to a realistic level, and it also doesn't hurt that she's picking up Flavien Prat. I don't totally trust her, but she is the horse to beat. I definitely prefer her to the other prominent dropdown She's Complicated (#7), who has one sloppy track victory that would beat this field. Yet her surrounding performances on fast going are pretty mediocre, and she's been a disappointment since getting claimed by some sharp barns. Spirit of Esther (#1) is another class dropper. She's run well on both dirt and turf in the past, but her former versatility makes her last couple of performances pretty concerning. She wasn't really persevered with on turf race last time, but it's still hard to excuse her dirt effort two back. I'll try to beat these shorter prices with Toxic Girl (#2). She's never run a race as fast as the likely favorites in here, but she is getting back to what she seemingly does best, routing on dirt. She recently experimented with both turf and sprint distances, neither of which seemed to suit her. Though, she actually showed some signs of improved form last time when staying on too late at 6 furlongs after losing early position. She now gets back to her preferred distance, and should be a fair price for lower profile connections.

Fair Value:
#2 TOXIC GIRL, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 3

The horses with experience in this state-bred maiden event aren't exactly trustworthy, so focus naturally shifts to the first time starters. The one likely to attract the most support is Red Velvet Cake (#3), who debuts for Melanie Giddings. This daughter of 12% debut sire Lord Nelson is a half-sister to Grade 2 Phoenix winner Federal Judge, who was one of the top sprinters in the country last year. However, there isn't much dam's side pedigree beyond that standout sibling. This barn has won with some firsters, but is just 2 for 34 (6%, $0.56 ROI) with horses debuting on dirt. The first time starter I prefer is Brokealltherules (#7), a $165k yearling purchase who has taken over two years to finally make it to the races. She's by 13% debut sire Frosted out of a winning dam who produced allowance-level sprinter Scoot Daddy. Rick Dutrow isn't known for debut success, but this filly sports a very steady worktab. Among those with experience, Sunshine Lily (#5) is the horse to beat. She had a legitimate excuse when last seen finishing up the track at Saratoga. She stumbled very badly at the start, and could never recover thereafter, chasing a runaway winner. She had run well over this course and distance prior to that, and it's easy to excuse a prior turf experiment. I don't love the way her form is declined since coming into Greg DiPrima's barn, but she is obviously dangerous if she can rebound here. My top pick is Patience N Grace (#8), who returns from a minor layoff to make the third start of her career. She showed some promise on debut when passing over half the field with a rail rally back in late March. She then attempted to stretch out to a mile for her second start, but was unable to sustain a wide bid and faded through the lane. That race's winner Material Girl is better than any of the rivals she's facing here. Patience N Grace didn't want to go that far anyway, and now she turns back to a sprint distance following a freshening. She returns with blinkers added after training well in that equipment this summer at the Spa, and the outside draw should allow her to use more of the tactical speed she started to develop this spring.

Fair Value:
#8 PATIENCE N GRACE, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 5

Fraudster (#9) has to be considered the one to beat off her 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure third-place finish switched to turf at Saratoga. I'm not convinced that she will necessarily repeat that number here, as there have been a few runbacks to regress out of that race. This filly still showed she can handle solid competition on turf, and merits respect. Todd Pletcher also sends out Pampered (#2), who finished 5 lengths behind her stablemate on debut at Saratoga. She had no early speed and ran like a horse who needed the experience. She was green in upper stretch and only really picked up her stride in the late stages when steered into the clear. She can build on that performance, but she's another exiting a race that may have been slightly overrated. In spite of those solid contenders with experience, I still think this is a race to consider first time starters. Isadora Duncan (#10) merits respect based on pedigree alone, being by top international sire Dubawi out of multiple graded stakes winner Significant Form. That makes her a full-sibling to Grade 1-placed turfer Opulent Restraint. She has shown some talent in the mornings, though doesn't figure to be much of a price for popular connections. I'll instead upgrade another firster. Vekoma View (#6) debuts for George Weaver, who is 6 for 30 (20%, $2.66 ROI) with two-year-old first time starters in turf routes over 5 years. She has plenty of pedigree for this surface, being by solid turf sire Vekoma and a half-sister to turf route winner Cliffs. Her dam is also a half-sister to Group 3-placed turf performer in Europe. She appeared to work well in Saratoga this summer, and may fly under the radar given the presence of the Brown and Pletcher runners.

Fair Value:
#6 VEKOMA VIEW, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6

Laughing Boy (#7) looks like the one to catch after setting an honest pace going this distance at a higher level last time. He should benefit from class relief here, though I don't love that he's now racing for a fraction of the $32k price tag for which he was claimed just two starts back. He has plenty of back class and has reportedly been training well for this second start out of Linda Rice's barn. I just don't want to fully commit to him at a likely short price. Bold Endeavor (#2)looks like one of his main rivals as he stretches back out to 9 furlongs, a distance he has handled in the past. He ran poorly at this level last time, but he was going out for a different barn that day. He's since been claimed back by former trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci and will obviously be dangerous if he can rebound to his prior form. Similarly-named Bold Victory (#5) the other Ilkay Kantarmaci trainee to consider, and he might be more interesting at a bigger price. His form had been dropping off earlier this year, but he was given a pair of tighteners sprinting recently. Those performances may have sharpened his approach as he stretches back out to his preferred distance. I'll use him underneath, but I prefer another on top. I'm looking for O P Firecracker (#4) to rebound after trying tougher in his last couple of starts. He ran poorly on July 23, but that was during a time when his former barn was stuck in a slump. He showed significant improvement first off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart last time, and would have been more involved in the finish if he had gotten a better trip. He wasn't asked to show early speed, and ended up in a difficult spot, losing position around the clubhouse turn and encountering further traffic thereafter. He should get a more aggressive ride this time, and has solid prior form at this level.

Fair Value:
#4 O P FIRECRACKER, at 3-1 or greater