TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Friday, May 15
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
I could only get a glimpse of an early workout for Tylos (#3), but she appeared to be much the best in company through a slow drill. She's bred to be a runner and looks pretty quick, so she's obviously the horse to beat on debut for Todd Pletcher. Goodbye to Romance (#5) shows a couple of very quick gate works, but Jena Antonucci runners tend to need a start first time out. I'll instead by Uncleshane (#2), who goes out for Mel Giddings. The training track appeared to be playing pretty quick on May 8, but that gate drill is still fast for that surface. He looked a bit rank, wanting to do more, in video of an early drill, but looks like one that should be quick out of the gate. He's certainly bred to sprint.
RACE 2
Special Ops (#5) will obviously beat this field if he carries his Oaklawn form up to New York. He chased home some legitimate rivals last time in that allowance race, and the horse that won returned to win a stakes with an even faster speed figure. I just don't love that he seems to struggle with his lead changes, and his only two good dirt efforts are at Oaklawn. At a short price, I'm willing to look beyond him to the two Linda Rice runners. Anyway (#6) is hard to peg since he's been inconsistent and is cutting back from a mile. He did sprint effectively on debut, and ran respectably against a good field last time. I just prefer the early speed of Linda's other horse Southeastern (#3). He should be contesting the pace early, and has subtly stepped forward since the claim, particularly when Linda cut him back to sprinting last time.
RACE 3
Caramel Chip (#1) is the horse to beat based on his back class and the drop down to this $35k level, the cheapest tag he's run for in a very long time. I do think the class relief can turn his declining form around, and some of the Kantarmaci runners have done well leaving Oaklawn. I'm just a little worried about his lack of early speed from an inside post. I prefer main rival Motorcade (#7). This horse was away for nearly two years, but returned with his typical good effort off the long layoff last time. There were many reasons to doubt him, but he made an excellent appearance on track prior to that race, and chased gamely along the inside even after getting away from the gate a step slowly. Now he's drawn well outside, which should mitigate any gate issues. If he steps forward at all off that return, he's probably going to beat this field.
RACE 4
This race was pretty confusing, as it also didn't come up that strong for the level, and no one looks terribly compelling. I just didn't want to settle for short prices on horses like Pop Art (#1) or Three to G (#7). The former at least has some tactical speed, which could come in handy here. I just wasn't thrilled with her Tampa efforts, a few of which look better on paper than they actually were. Three to G has rallied from off the pace recently, and did finish well against a good field last time. However, she got a great pace setup, and was somewhat erratic through the lane. Agia Marina (#2) is more appealing to me as she makes her second start since the acquisition and trainer switch to Amelia Green. Connections paid $170k for her, so there are some hopes here, and she didn't run that badly for the new barn behind a stakes-quality winner. I expect her to run better here. I would also use Starship Athena (#6), who returns from a layoff for Michelle Nevin. She might need a start after being away for so long, and her running style could be a liability. I just thought she won pretty impressively in that maiden score at Horseshoe Indianapolis, albeit against a weak field.
RACE 5
I have some doubts about the horse I pegged as the morning line favorite in this maiden claimer on turf. Fraudster (#3) is making her first start for a tag after racing in a series of maiden special weight events for Todd Pletcher, and horses with this profile generally attract support. However, I don't like the steady decline in her form, and the fact that she totally lost her early speed when trying to sprint last time. I'm more interested in others with turf form. Key Actress (#6) andMagnum's Microbrst (#5) faced off a trio of times last summer at Saratoga, and the former finished just ahead of the latter on all three occasions. Both went off form at the end of their seasons, but Magnum's Microbrst did get things back on track when she returned from a layoff earlier this month. She can improve again second off the layoff, but I do still prefer Key Actress. She tried sprinting on synthetic late last season, but now she's returning to what she does best following a freshening. She might just be the best horse in this field. The filly I want to bet is Ocean Ripple (#2), who looks slower than her main rivals at first glance. However, she has had a series of excuses in her turf races. She faced some tough fields early on in her career, and ran better than it looks when closing into a slow pace at Gulfstream in March of 2025. She subsequently missed time and didn't get back on turf until last month at Churchill Downs. She only finished sixth, but she ran a lot better than that result would suggest. She was keen early in traffic and had to alter course while never really in position to stride until it was too late. She's dangerous shipping to New York for David Jacobson.
RACE 6
I'm a little concerned about the pace scenario of this race for likely favorite Illmatic (#2). He's a naturally fast horse who wants to lead, but there is other speed in here that should be pursuing him early. I'll be particularly interested to see how aggressive main rival Fireballin (#3) is just to his outside. He pushed a very fast pace that ultimately collapsed when last seen and seems to finally be rounding back into top form. However, they are taking blinkers off, which might foreshadow a change in tactics. I expect Leo's Reward (#5) to be sitting in the best spot just in behind the leaders. He probably needed his return from a layoff last time, where he made a strong middle move on the turn before flattening out. He ran races last year that could beat this group, and may be set for a top effort second off the layoff.
RACE 7
Red Burgundy (#1) is the one to catch, but it's hard to know what to expect from her as she stretches back out in distance off layoff. She needs things her own way up front, and there is some other speed in here that could try to go with her early. Among those with strong turf form, Bobby Jean (#6) seems like the best option based on her grass races last year. I'm just a little concerned about how her form fell apart on dirt this past winter. She can handle dirt, so the fact that she was totally uncompetitive twice in a row raises questions. I still think she's dangerous if she can rebound following a short layoff. My top pick is Heavenly Light (#8). This filly started out as a horse intended for turf with Horacio De Paz, and now she's coming full circle as De Paz claimed her back in March and is putting her right back on turf after she ran on nothing but dirt for Brad Cox. Her grass races look slow, but remember that was 2-year-old form. She actually ran an underrated race behind subsequent allowance winner National Archive with a wide trip on Oct. 20, 2024, her last turf effort. That form could translate well here with any routine improvement, and she'll be a price.
RACE 8
I originally picked Boltage (#11) on top, but I'm guessing he didn't ship to New York after getting stuck on the AE list. He did work on May 13 at Churchill Downs. Assuming he's not running, City of Oscars (#6) and Rollin in Dough (#7)become the two obvious horses to beat based on their solid efforts at this level in April. The pace of that race was faster than it might appear, so I want to downgrade closer City of Oscars slightly. The horse to upgrade out of that race might be Launch Control (#4), who had to work harder than expected to make the lead and understandably tired late in his return from a layoff. I won't be surprised when he wires the field this time. I have to bet some money on Go Irish (#8) finally getting on the turf. This gelding's female family is all turf, and his action has always made me think that he would appreciate this surface switch. His recent form hasn't been great, so perhaps they're just trying this now out of desperation. I still have to take a small shot at the price he's likely to be.
Thursday, May 14
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
If this race stays on turf, Through the Years (#1) is obviously going to take a lot of money coming of her narrow defeat on debut at Keeneland. She seemed to be on her way to a sure victory before shortening stride as her rider seemed to get surprised by the late run from the eventual winner. She'll obviously be tough if she runs as well here. However, Wesley Ward is just 8 for 64 (13%, $0.66 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf sprints over 5 years. The two first time starters who look most dangerous as alternatives are Fire Song (#2) and Just Peachy (#3). There's no workout video available for Fire Song, and we don’t know much about first crop sire Fire At Will, but she does show some solid work times at Turfway. I did watch video of Just Peachy, who was easily best in an Apr. 30 drill and then responded to pressure nicely on May 7, edging ahead on the gallop out. She's bred to be a nice turf horse, and seems like one that can win on debut even though her trainer doesn't have great stats with these types.
RACE 2
I didn't have a strong opinion here. It seems like a first time starter will probably win here since those with experience don't do much for me. Some may go to Morning Menace (#3), who has been the Payson work partner of Minute by Minute, who ran poorly last weekend for Chad Brown. This filly's replays last year for Brad Cox didn't get me excited. Of those with experience, I thought Amended Dreamer (#1) was more interesting at a price since she's bred to be a dirt horse and has improved since her early dirt races as a 2-year-old. I went to Chad's first time starter Long Term Market (#5). She's bred to get better with distance, but I like the workout video that I've seen from her. Her overmatched work partner was fifth here on turf last weekend, but Long Term Market has had that one's measure in all of their drills. Highgrove (#2) seems like the other firster to consider. Frosted was a decent debut sire and she's got some pretty quick workout times for the Payson surface, though there's limited recent video of those drills.
RACE 3
I'm not trying to beat Celtic Dawn (#6) as she returns from a layoff. This filly won her debut at Saratoga very nicely, easily beating subsequent stakes winner Hot Currency. She was vanned off after the race and found to have a fractured pastern. It's taken a while to get her back, but she appears to be working well for the return, and she's not catching a particularly tough field.
RACE 4
I'm again going with an obvious favorite. Silver Talent (#1) had worked well down in Florida and was well meant on debut. He just ran like a horse who needed the race experience. He was slow into stride from the rail and only got down to serious running in the second half of the race. He finished nicely through the lane and galloped out best. I don't mind him stretching out to a mile, and he clearly has more upside than main rival Dark Assault (#3). The Phipps runner has shown some ability and runs like a horse that should get this added distance. I just expect Silver Talent to beat him if he puts things together second time out. Chad Brown's stellar statistics with these types suggest that's likely.
RACE 5
Jubilee Parade (#6) is the one to beat given his positive turf sprint experience in a race lacking much turf form of any kind. I can't say that I love any of this colt's replays, but he obviously fits well in this spot. I'm just not keen to take a short price. Miguel Clement sends out the two most interest alternatives. He's My Kind (#5) has pedigree to be an effective turf sprinter and seems like a dangerous option. I wish I could have found video of his workouts to get some sense of his ability. I gave the nod to Grunge (#7) instead. While he doesn't have obvious turf pedigree, there is some to be found digging through the dam's side. He also moves like a turf horse, and notably worked on the turf following his debut at Saratoga last summer. That speaks to some intention to get him on this surface. If his speed transfers to the grass, he should prove tough to catch.
RACE 6
Linda Rice will only go with Oil Capital (#1) after scratching her other runner. He hopped at the start and got away slowly in his last start at this level, which put him out of position for the entire race. He doesn’t need the lead, but he races best from a forward position and he figures to get sent to the front from his rail draw. I expect Tiger Twenty Four (#6) to perform better as he turns back to a sprint race. He hasn't run this short since his career debut, but he's been running like a horse that needs a turnback in distance. He's just not finishing off his one-mile races very well despite traveling strongly to upper stretch each time. He has pedigree to go shorter and possesses the tactical speed to sit a good stalking trip at this distance. My top pick is Buttah (#4). He needs to rebound from a couple of poor efforts in his most recent starts over the winter. However, he is now going out for a new trainer following a brief freshening that he probably needed. He broke from the gate sluggishly in each of his last two starts, and that put him out of his preferred stalking position each time. Those were also some very tough fields for the level, so he's getting some class relief as he returns for the new stable. He was running speed figures last fall that would beat this group. It also doesn't hurt that he picks up Flavien Prat, who has a knack for attaining forward early positioning on horses like this.
RACE 7
After the scratch of expected favorite Lady Godiva, I didn't want to put Lady Rose (#5) on top at a short price. I'll hardly be shocked when she wins, but I don’t love that she went to the sidelines after that maiden score and want some validation of that performance. Sparkling Mama (#7) has speed and should appreciate stretching back out to a mile after getting outrun to the lead sprinting last time. She should control the pace up front here, and Manny Franco feels like a good fit for a filly who needs an aggressive rider.
RACE 8
After the scratch of the likely favorite, I'm against dropdown I Rest My Case (#8), who figures to take money. Her replays last year didn't fill me with confidence that she'd handle dirt. There are a couple first time starters to consider, but neither one had a terribly appealing profile. Lady Delilah (#4) has plenty of prior races that fit this level, but she's hard to take on top as an 0 for 21 maiden. I'll instead go with Grit N Glitter (#7), who returns from a brief layoff. She had run well on debut here last September, showing tactical speed and just missing. Since then she's lacked any early speed whatsoever, but I wonder if she can get a little more involved off the layoff. She has finished well in each of her last two starts since the blinkers went on, but her lack of focus early in her races puts her at a disadvantage. I do believe she has the ability to beat the favorite if she can finally run a complete race again.
