TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Sunday, March 9
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.
PLAYS
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 2
Sunday Gilt (#4) has to be considered the horse to beat in this $32k claimer. Most 3-year-olds who win maiden special weight races don’t make their first start against winners in a claiming race. Jeremiah Englehart actually entered and scratched him from Saturday’s Gander Stakes, where he would have been a longshot. While it’s an unconventional move to bypass allowance company altogether, this is a logical spot for a homebred who has never run particularly fast. The 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for his lone victory last time is the best number coming into this race by some ways, and a repeat of that performance will make him tough to beat. I just have some reservations due to the lack of confidence being displayed by connections. Among this chief rivals is Revivalism (#6), who also broke his maiden last time out, doing so against $25k state-bred maiden claiming company. That makes this open claiming race more of a logical next step for a horse who has been in decent form lately. He ran better than it looks two back when he botched the start and passed rivals to finish fourth. He has shown better tactical speed in his surrounding starts and figures to be part of the pace here for a trainer who has sent out nothing but live runners at this meet. My top pick is another horse exiting a maiden victory who figures to be a much bigger price. Bernie Goes Boom (#7) is unlikely to attract much support off his modest 65 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which he earned for a victory against $20k maiden claimers last time. He only won by 1 3/4 lengths, but he was much the best as a heavy favorite. He traveled well in behind the leaders and got stuck in traffic for much of the far turn, waiting for room before getting tipped outside at the quarter pole. He rallied past the leaders with ease in a comfortable win, looking very much like a horse who has more to offer over route distances. He had run better than it looks two back when never seeing the inside path over a heavily rail-biased surface, and he should have won on Dec. 8 after getting an unfair start. This horse is better than his past performances indicate, is coming off an improved workout, and should be a fair price on the rise in class.
Fair Value:
#7 BERNIE GOES BOOM, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 4
I don’t want any part of likely favorite Timaeus (#7), who is dropping back down in class for Linda Rice. I don’t mind the class relief for this horse, since Rice only claimed him for $25k last year. I just doubt this horse’s competitive spirit. He’s gotten very good trips in a few of his recent races and just lacks a response when set down. I also wonder if he’s really at his best going this short. I know he does own a victory at the distance, but that came against a very weak field. He’s a long-striding son of Malibu Moon who just appears to be very one-paced. The Monopoly Man (#4) ran pretty well when returning on short rest last time, making his first start for Rob Atras. He was chasing outside over a track that was kind to rail runners. He's relatively consistent, but I'm not sure how much upside he has, even making his second start off the claim for this barn. My top pick is Mackville (#6), who was claimed away from Linda Rice last time. I didn’t like the ride he got on that occasion, as he was a little flat-footed away from the start but then not asked for any speed by Kendrick Carmouche, who rode him very conservatively. He’s a horse who has done his best running when he’s forwardly placed, and he just lost position under tentative handling on the turn before staying on late. He now makes his first start off the claim for Wayne Potts, and more importantly switches to the aggressive Ruben Silvera, who figures to make better use of his early speed. He also had a right to need that last race off the layoff, and figures to move forward here.
Fair Value:
#6 MACKVILLE, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 6
I don’t really trust any of the shorter priced options in this $40k N2L claimer. The entry figures to take money merely by default, though I don’t love either of these Jamie Ness trainees. Scarborough Fair (#1) has to prove she can go longer, and Stress Reliever (#1A) has been a major disappointment in her last two starts. I was interested in To Be Loved by You (#7) when she returned from a layoff last time, and she had a right to get a little tired after setting an honest pace. However, I didn’t like the way she was lugging out through the stretch, and now she’s claimed by a barn that hasn’t had much success first off the claim. Beira (#2) seems like the horse to beat. She easily handled the aforementioned rival last time and was pretty game chasing home superior winner Street View. She appears to be in solid form for Rob Atras and just makes sense even as she steps up slightly in class. My top pick is Saucy Six (#3), who figures to get somewhat overlooked based on the connections, going out for a barn that rarely wins here and a rider who only has a single victory in the last year. However, she’s been steadily improving over her last few races, and her form actually stacks up quite well with these. She ran better than today’s rival She’s Cool when wide against a rail bias on Dec. 27, and last time she again chased wide and still finished in a photo for third with Street View, who beat a few of the top contenders in this race in her next start. I think she’s a contender, and she’s likely to offer fair value.
Fair Value:
#3 SAUCY SIX, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 8
Four of the major contenders in this allowance optional claimer are returning from significant layoffs. That group is headlined by High Oak (#4), who achieved a Grade 1 placing behind Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish back in 2023. He’s only started 4 times since then, and is making his first start in over a year, so he has many questions to answer. I’m inclined to take a wait and see approach, especially at a short price. Stolen Base (#7) is a little more appealing, since he really seemed to blossom when turned back to sprint distances last winter, and now is returning in the right kind of spot after a failed turf experiment when last seen. He’s just another who lacks much early speed, and it doesn’t appear that there’s that much early pace in this race. Just Beat the Odds (#5) is arguably most dangerous of the returnees. I typically don’t love horses that go to the sidelines when they’re in top form, but his connections had some ownership issues to work out following his last race. He’s been working steadily for his return, and Greg Sacco has pretty solid statistics with horses returning from layoffs of this type. His tactical speed figures to play well here. My top pick is Twenty Four Mamba (#3), who has struggled to handle wet tracks in the past, never hitting the board in 5 attempts over wet surfaces. Therefore, I’m willing to forgive him for his last two performances, and think he deserves another chance to improve in his second start for the Michelle Giangiulio barn. He made a nice middle move before unable to sustain it over that distasteful footing last time. He does have prior races that put him in the mix against a field like this, and I do think he has some upside going out for a barn that has had success on this circuit over the last year. He’smyhoneybadger (#2) is another horse who doesn't appreciate wet tracks, and exits the same Feb. 9 affair over a muddy surface. He could get a favorable trip here if able to recapture some of the early speed he’s shown in the past. The result was dreadful last time, but perhaps the wet track didn’t agree with him, and he seemingly got discouraged when unable to make the lead from the rail. He is especially aided by the scratch of the entry, one of which looked like a major pace rival. Now he figures to be in front if he breaks well from the rail. It’s a good sign that there’s no drastic drop in class second off the layoff, and the Brad Cox barn has been live lately. I would take whichever horse exiting that race goes off at the better price.
Fair Value:
#3 TWENTY FOUR MAMBA, at 9-2 or greater
#2 HE'SMYHONEYBADGER, at 9-2 or greater
Saturday, March 8
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.
PLAYS
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 5
Liberty Central (#6) is obviously the one to beat as he makes another attempt to break through this first-level allowance condition. It’s just getting harder and harder to swallow short prices on this horse as he continues to settle for minor awards as the favorite. He’s now finished second in 3 of his last 4 starts while going off at odds less than 2-1 each time. He has actually run his best races going 9 furlongs around two turns recently, so I don’t love this slight cutback to a mile. He’s very logical, but I wouldn’t be afraid to take a shot against him. The problem is finding a suitable alternative. Among the horses exiting that Feb. 15 race at this level, Willintoriskitall (#3) obviously makes sense, but he was a generous 8-1 that day and now will be a much shorter price after just missing with a good trip. Leo’s Reward (#4) is an interesting new face at this level after beating maidens last time, but he got a very good trip despite encountering some minor traffic in upper stretch. He also must prove that he really gets better going a mile, though he did run fairly well two back behind Baron of Sealand, the winner of that aforementioned Feb. 15 allowance. My top pick is Provision (#5), who finished far behind a couple of these when they met on Feb. 15, but that was just his first start off a layoff. His trainer Lolita Shivmangal isn’t known for having horses ready to fire fresh, so he figured to need that start. He was at least staying on well at the end over a demanding surface. He had shown some ability at this level last year, outrunning his odds when picking up minor awards in a few races like this. He ran particularly well against a decent field at Saratoga in August going this distance. Now he’s making his second start off the layoff with some upside and will be a price for an underrated barn.
Fair Value:
#5 PROVISION, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 8
This allowance optional claimer appears to be particularly wide open. Cascais (#7) could go favored again despite disappointing as the public choice when he returned from a layoff at this level in February. This runner who posted some impressive speed figures when competing in early 2024, but he lacked his typical early speed and backed up through the pack when he resurfaced following a 9-month layoff last time. The good news for him is that there doesn’t appear to be as much speed signed on in this spot, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he should be quick enough to make the lead in a neutral pace scenario. However, he does figure to have some company up front, and I’m not keen to swallow a short price on a horse who still has to prove he can get back to top form. The other Chad Brown runner Expected Value (#1) was a much bigger price than Cascais when they met in that Feb. 8 affair, but he outran his 15-1 odds to get up for fifth, only beaten 2 lengths. A relatively slow pace did him no favors, but he still closed powerfully from last to pass over half the field. He was much more effective in that spot than he had been in his first start off a layoff, so perhaps he can continue on his upward trajectory here. He will just have to do so in a race that may not set up perfectly for him once again. The hard-knocking General Banker (#3) is always a solid contender in races like this. He doesn’t visit the winner’s circle very often, but he typically outruns his odds at this level, such as when he finished a close second at 17-1 behind the talented Yo Daddy going this distance two back. He doesn’t have to rally from as far back as Expected Value, and actually finished ahead of that foe last time despite racing in some traffic. My top pick is Doc Sullivan (#8), who is stepping back into open company after facing New York-breds in most of his recent starts. He ran into a very nice foe in Bank Frenzy two back, and was flattered when that rival returned to beat open company in the Stymie last week. Doc Sullivan almost held off that heavy favorite after carving out the fractions in the slop, earning a career-best 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure going this distance. A repeat of that performance would make him awfully tough against this group. Doc Sullivan wasn’t as effective last time in the Say Florida Sandy, but the trip didn’t work out for him. He was rated in the pocket along an inside path that was not the place to be on Feb. 15, and lost position on the rail around the turn. However, he never threw in the towel and was staying on well for third when steered outside late. I like the outside draw, and Romero Maragh should be a good fit for a horse who benefits from an aggressive rider.
Fair Value:
#8 DOC SULLIVAN, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 9
National Identity (#5) will be tough on this field if he repeats either of his last two TimeformUS Speed Figures, a 111 for losing a photo to Sacrosanct and a 109 for just missing behind Sand Devil. However, he had every chance to go by Sacrosanct when he got a better trip in the Great White Way, and he benefited from the slow pace in the Damon Runyon. Both performances still make him the horse to beat in this spot, but now he has to stretch out to a mile. His pedigree is geared much more towards sprinting on the dam’s side, and I wonder how much upside he still has, especially considering that the connections chose to bypass the Gotham. Mo Plex (#3) is his main rival, and he put forth some nice efforts against even better competition last year, finishing a good third in the Grade 1 Champagne before giving Sacrosanct all he could handle in the Sleepy Hollow. He’s already proven going the distance, and may be ready to take a step forward in his 3-year-old debut. Soontobeking (#4) is another who fits from a class perspective, but I don’t love him stretching back out to a mile. He has no early speed, and is most effective in shorter races where the pace comes apart. My top pick is Swift Magic (#9), who figures to get ignored once again even after upsetting a maiden field at 21-1 last time. The race wasn’t fast from a final time perspective, but he chased a very fast pace over a dead strip, and was the only horse contesting the early lead that was around at the end. His 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure reflects that pace upgrade, and that was just his first start off a layoff as a 3-year-old. I think it’s interesting that George Weaver is spotting him ambitiously against stakes company out of that performance. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of speed in here, and George Weaver has sent out nothing but live runners this winter at Aqueduct. He’s drawn well outside of the other speed, and figures to get overlooked.
Fair Value:
#9 SWIFT MAGIC, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 10
I don’t have a major knock against the logical dropdown Eleni (#7). She at least ran competitively against maiden special weight company two back, albeit in a slow race for the level. She chased the pace before fading in that same Feb. 22 race last time, but should be able to carry her speed farther against this softer group. My top pick is another horse dropping in class who figures to be a much bigger price. Shock (#5) debuted against open company at Parx last October, and actually attracted significant support to get bet down to 7-2. However, nothing went right during the race, as she was away slowly and then climbed down the backstretch while racing greenly through kickback. She briefly moved up into mid-pack but then dropped back on the turn and could never recover. She’s almost surely better than that, and now she’s spotted at a realistic level for her return to the races. The low percentage rider figures to scare some away, but Tim Hills is a decent 7 for 38 (18%, $3.17 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns over the past 5 years. I’m expecting her to show a lot more early speed provided a clean start.
Fair Value:
#5 SHOCK, at 5-1 or greater
