TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

I didn't love the last effort from My Girl Aubree (#5), who was unable to win at this level despite getting a great stalking trip. Some might focus on the fact that she was bumped in the last furlong, but I didn't see that having much of an impact on her performance. I have a little more faith in She's Bankable (#3), who contested a solid pace last time and fought on gamely to just miss second behind a first time starter. There is a fair amount of pace in here, but I'm still not sure that will be enough to get 0 for 19 Lady Delilah (#4) into the winner's circle. She fits at this level, but is probably better used underneath. The only horse I could bet is No Reserve (#1), who faced a decent field on debut last summer. She showed good early speed to contest that pace while racing wide before shutting down late. She's placed realistically for the return and may be dangerous up front getting in light with apprentice Dalila Rivera aboard.

RACE 2

Sharp Spark (#1) is obviously the horse to beat after getting up for second in a marathon starter even last time out. That was his first start off the claim for Rob Atras and he held his form well. However, he doesn't possess much early speed and it's hard to project much pace for him in this small field. Hey Toby (#5) figures to go forward, but he's questionable at this 9-furlong distance. I prefer the other potential speed. Laughing Boy (#2) didn't run that well first off the claim for Karl Grusmark last time, but I didn't think he got a great ride. He was outrun to the front and lost some position on the far turn before staying on belatedly through traffic late. He's proven at these two-turn distances, and figures to be much more aggressively handled from the inside by Jorge Vargas this time. The barn being winless on the year figures to drive up the price on a horse who otherwise seems like a pretty solid contender.

RACE 3

Like most players who have followed this circuit through the winter, I'm pretty sick of Noguchi (#1) losing at short prices. However, I do think this rider switch to Dalila Rivera is a pretty interesting move by Linda Rice. This horse is fainthearted and the thought process is probably that putting him in front and getting some weight off might carry him the distance at this level. I'm not sure I quite buy it, but I would hardly be shocked if he beat this field. It's not like I have much trust in his main rival Sounds Like Fun (#6), who gets claimed by a barn that has been pretty quiet so far in 2026. He didn't do much running off the long layoff last time, and it's unclear if he's ever going to get back to the fleeting form we saw him produce last May. I'll try to beat this pair with the lightly raced Final Joke (#8). He obviously has to get faster to win at this level, but he caught a tough duo on debut and then participated in a deceptively strong maiden race at Parx last time. That field has proven to be stronger than the speed figures it was assigned. He now gets significant class relief, and I like him stretching out to a mile.

RACE 4

After spending far too long considering various options in this race, I'm defaulting to proven turf horse Mermaid (#6). It's mildly disappointing that she's still a maiden considering that she finished second behind Breeders' Cup winner Cy Fair on debut last summer. However, she isn't catching a particularly tough field for this level as she ships back to New York. Her main rivals all have their flaws. I'm highly dubious of the speed figures assigned to the only turf race for Beneficence (#7), since so many have come back to regress. Amended Dreamer (#5) has had tough trips in each of her last two starts on grass, but she's not the best gate horse and that worries me as she turns back to a sprint. Bourbon Betty (#3) has the most convincing pedigree of those trying turf for the first time, produced from a strong Colts Neck female family. However, Mark Hennig is just 2 for 44 ($0.59 ROI) with horses switching to turf for the first time over the last 5 years.

RACE 5

While she hasn't posed a significant threat in any of her three prior starts, the company that Academia (#1) has kept probably makes her the horse to beat. She chased home G1 Spinaway winner Tommy Jo last summer, and then in her turf debut found herself in against Lion Lake, who returned to win the G3 Herecomesthebride at Gulfstream. She didn't show much improvement in that initial turf attempt, but she also ran a strange race, getting outrun on the far turn before staying on belatedly in the final furlong. I prefer Brown's other runner Tax Holiday (#4), who didn't run nearly as poorly as it might seem in her Tampa debut. She was getting a good trip inside before she got completely shuffled out of the race rounding the far turn. I wish she had recovered a bit better when she got clearly in the lane, but the trouble she experienced on the turn was a valid excuse. The horse I really want to bet is Majestic Moonlight (#5), who gets on turf for the first time. She doesn't have that much obvious turf breeding, but she trains like a horse who can improve with the surface switch. She faced a very tough field in her dirt debut down at Gulfstream and just never seemed comfortable while outrun over that course. Since then she has worked very well on turf at Palm Meadows, including a quick Feb. 8 drill where she was much the best against a couple of decent workmates. According to DRF Formulator, trainer Jorge Abreu is 4 for 17 (24%, $7.21 ROI) with maidens switching to turf for the first time over the last 5 years.

RACE 6

B Thedonald (#5) seems like a legitimate favorite even as he steps up against winners for the first time. He closed well after getting away slowly on debut, and last time he won despite breaking from the outside post and getting a wide trip over a rail-biased surface. It's conceivable that he could improve again here, and that probably puts him in the winner's circle. You just have to take a short price on a horse moving up in class. I prefer him to Love Coin (#2), who was visually impressive going from last to first on debut but did benefit from a hot pace against a weaker field. If I'm going to try and beat this favorite, it will be with Stickupwithoutagun (#3), who has a right to run faster as he returns for his 3-year-old campaign. He contested the pace while racing wide against a much tougher field in the Champagne last fall and unsurprisingly paid the price late. His maiden win at Saratoga prior to that had been a solid effort, and the form from that race has aged pretty well. He appears to be working well for his returning and I like him turning back to a sprint.

RACE 7

Among those with turf form, One Last Knock (#1) is the horse to beat after running well in all of her turf starts last season. She has to deal with a layoff, but Keri Brion is highly experienced at bringing horses back off lengthy breaks. This filly even ran better than it might appear in her last start when she was always wide from an outside post. She draws well inside and should sit a good trip from just off the pace. Fifi La Fume (#4) and Long Legged Queen (#6) didn't finish that far behind her in that Nov. 15 race at this level. The latter hasn't raced since then, just like One Last Knock. However, Fifi La Fume got in a couple of dirt preps this winter and may be set for a better effort as she returns to turf. She just needs some pace to develop but should be a square price. There are a few 3-year-olds stepping up, and Trading Trouble (#7) is likely to attract the most support among them. I just didn't like the way she tailed off at the end of her juvenile season and I wonder if she's the type who will improve with age. Her pedigree suggests otherwise. I'm instead going to try a bigger priced 3-year-old. Sugartown Sweetie (#9) gets on turf for the first time, but I made the note over the winter that she looked like a horse who would benefit from this surface switch. I'm encouraged that the connections apparently see the same thing, getting her into a turf race as soon as they had the chance. Mitole is a deceptively strong turf influence, winning with over 14% of his turf sprint starters. This filly is a half-sister to 2 turf winners and has the mechanics of a horse who should move up on this surface.

RACE 8

Watching back that replay of the last race for Morning Prayer (#1) still stings a bit, as I had picked and bet her at 18-1 and she just got nailed on the wire in her turf debut. She's probably the horse to beat as she returns from a layoff given the lack of turf form among her competition in this state-bred maiden affair. However, she's hard for me to take at a short price off a layoff after that tough beat when she was a longshot last fall. I also think one of her main rivals Bernina Express (#3) is a little more interesting as a less exposed option. Her lone turf start is better than it looks. She did get a good trip for the first half of the race, advancing along the rail while saving ground. However, she tried to move inside of the leaders at the quarter pole and got stopped in traffic, then steadied again in upper stretch, basically losing all chance. She subsequently failed to handle dirt and they wisely put her away for the winter. She returns to her preferred surface and draws well. The post position was the main thing that held me back with the only other horse I wanted to consider. That's AE Neeka (#13), who had a tough trip in her dirt debut and has some sneaky turf pedigree. I think she'll like the surface switch, but she has a lot to overcome from the widest draw even if she gets in.