TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

A few horses in this race are exiting that Feb. 26 race won by Southeastern. It was a speed-favoring track and Mercilesanihilator (#3) was unable to clear off up front ahead of that eventual winner. He dueled inside of that foe in a tight spot and ultimately faded. That was his second consecutive face where he had a less than ideal trip, since he was chasing two-wide against a bias two back. I think he's the horse to beat, but now he's going to be a short price. Escape Hall (#1) didn't run that much worse in the same race last time and has comparable prior form. I thought he was a legitimate contender. The same can be said about Mo Spice (#6), who was running on belatedly for second in that same race. I believe another horse from that affair has a chance to move forward at a bigger price. Longshot Miami Kaz (#2) got a strange ride last time, as Ricardo Santana hustled him early and then basically stood up in the stirrups on the far turn, looking like he was contemplating easing to the wire. He ultimately set him down again in the lane and the horse finished the race, running on with decent energy under mild late encouragement. He may have struggled to handle muddy, sealed tracks in each of his last two starts. He was also on a dead rail two back, so his form isn't quite as bad as it looks. He ran a speed figure that makes him competitive here on debut in his only start over a dry track.

RACE 2

I'm not trying to beat heavy favorite Munnings Express (#2), who looks like the controlling speed and simply the best horse. She has lost twice at this level, but the winners are both runners of quality who have been in great form. Howling Wind (#3) is stepping up in class in great form, but she may need to improve on her last race against weaker.

RACE 3

Commuted (#4) will take money exiting a win while making his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. He's staying at the same class level, and the last race was flattered when third-place finisher Sharp Spark. I do think speed was a slight advantage that day, and Frizzante (#3) was trying to close behind that winner. I just wish Frizzante won a little more often, as it's hard to overlook the 12 second-place finishes. I prefer Mr. Papagiorgio (#2), who is better form than it might appear. He was against track biases twice in a row, riding a dead rail on Jan. 15, and then chasing outside against a gold rail on Feb. 15. He has the speed to challenge early but he doesn't need the lead to be successful. I just think he's going to run a lot better here. The only drawback is that you have to swallow a short price merely because Prat's riding.

RACE 4

Moment's Notice (#4) figures to be a heavy favorite in this $30k conditioned claimer as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. This horse showed promise during his 2-year-old season, hitting the board behind future stakes performers Tough Catch and Jonathan's Way in a pair of maiden races. However, despite that strong early form it took him 6 attempts to finally break his maiden, and he went to the sidelines soon after. Two attempts against winners have been disappointing, and now he drops down. He can win here if he merely runs back to his return effort at Tampa, especially after all of the scratches. I just have some concerns about him holding that form. The only horse who really interests me as an alternative now is Middle Market (#7). he is getting class relief that he desperately needs after facing tougher foes in all of his recent starts at higher levels than this. He didn't run that badly with a wide trip against the rail bias two back, and he may not have appreciate muddy tracks in his surrounding starts. He's getting a rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano, and has had prior success at this 7-furlong distance.

RACE 5

So Spirited (#5) might inherit the favorite's role by default after scratches. He looked totally clueless on debut, but it's unclear that he has any ability. I thought Monte Avi (#3) was the best option since he's coming out of slightly tougher races and drops down to this level for the first time. He has had plenty of chances, but he at least has shown some consistency in a race where form is hard to trust.

RACE 6

I suppose Take Me to Londyn (#2) will be a short price once again, but he's hardly some standout based on form. Sher an fine at this level last time, but didn't have a major excuse as the favorite. Sabby Sunset (#3) might play out as the main speed. She needs the lead to be successful, and never had a chance when outrun against tougher foes last time. A repeat of her maiden score two back could beat this group. I'll take a shot with Eleni (#6) simply on the angle that she was against the track last time. She was chasing wide against the Feb. 14 rail bias after breaking a step slowly. Her overall form isn't great and I don't love horses coming from Penn National, but her local start is better than it looks and she does get a rider upgrade.

RACE 7

Caddiemaster (#4) might win this race at a short price, but I'm always a little hesitant to trust 9-furlong form to automatically translate back to a one-turn mile on this circuit. This horse really seemed to improve in his last couple of starts around two turns, and now he's cutting back in distance. His last race off the claim for Linda Rice was his best yet, since he did angle wide at the quarter pole after saving ground early on a day when the rail was an advantage. He's obviously a contender, but he figures to be a pretty short price. Solo Dancing (#5) is stepping up in class, but he faced some reasonably tough foes for the levels at which he's competed in his last three starts. It's been a strong winter for the Ralph D'Alessandro barn, and this horse's form speaks to that trend. He ran well with a wide trip last time, but I am a little concerned that he may not get the pace he needs after the scratch of one speed. After scratches, I want to upgrade E Z Bourbon (#1). This horse figures to get an aggressive ride from the rail as he makes his third start off a layoff. He needed his return sprinting, and then caught a sloppy track that he may not have loved last time. He ran speed figures in the first half of his 3-year-old season that would make him tough to beat here, and the likely pace scenario of this race should allow him to produce his best effort yet since coming back.

RACE 8

Shellac (#4) will probably win this race at an extremely short price, but I don't love the steady decline in his form. Perhaps he didn't like synthetic or going longer, I still wanted to see him do a little more finishing in those races. He obviously ran well in his first couple of starts in dirt sprints, but this drop all the way down the class ladder to $12,500 suggests that the barn doesn't expect him to get back to those efforts. There just isn't a compelling alternative. Grey Ace (#2) has had plenty of chances at these lower levels, and first time starter Chips and Fish (#5) goes out for a barn that hasn't had any success with this move.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

The likely favorites in this $50k beaten claimer have their flaws. Royal Bobbie (#1) is consistent, but her starting gate antics make her tough to trust. She breaks slowly in nearly every race, and it often puts her in a disadvantageous position right from the start. I don't mind her cutting back slightly to a mile, and the longer run to a turn may give her more time to regain position if she breaks poorly again. I just don't want to bet her at a short price. Grace and Grit (#2) is similarly frustrating, since she's a difficult filly to ride. She has talent, but can be hard to maneuver and is prone to trouble. However, I am intrigued by the switch to Amelia Green, whose barn has been on a strong run lately. I'll try to beat these favorites with Moonlight Gal (#4). I know she looks pretty light on speed figures, but remember that most of those numbers were earned during and just beyond her 2-year-old season. She returned from a yearlong layoff last time and ran a respectable race, achieving a new 82 TimeformUS Speed Figure top despite going a distance that seems too short for her. That was a solid spot for the level as horses have returned from the race to win and improve. She ran best going a mile in her second career start, and now gets to stretch back out to that distance on dirt for the first time since then.

RACE 2

Linda has scratched Magnanimous Max again, and will instead only start her other horse Apalta (#4). He is already proven going this far, beating a very weak field when he broke his maiden at this distance, but now he's getting class relief after being placed over his head last time. He's also second off a layoff and seems like the horse to beat. Ambridge (#5) stretches back out around two turns for the first time since breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs. He did have some minor trouble in upper stretch of his last race, but he was already under a hard ride at that point. My top pick is Egyptian (#2), who finished ahead of Ambridge in that same Feb. 19 race and was traveling much better at the time of that rival's trouble. He hasn't won going this distance but certainly handled it in two prior attempts at this level. He would be tough to deny if he ran as that effort behind Ambition two back. His last race was a regression, but he probably didn't handle the muddy, sealed track.

RACE 3

Stamina becomes a question again in this race, as both likely favorites may not be at their best going 1 3/16 miles. Confabulation (#2) is probably the best horse in this race, as he displayed when dominating conditioned claimers three back. He's dropping back down after facing tougher in two starts since getting claimed by Ilkay Kantarmaci. However, he's hard to trust at this distance when he's never finished particularly well around two turns. I also have distance concerns with He's Got This (#3), who was wide last time but just picking up pieces in a race that was falling apart. I also don't like him stretching out further. I considered Centavo (#4), since he at least has wins around two turns. I'm just not sure that he's still sharp enough to win on this circuit now as an 8-year-old. Instead I'll go for the new face Texas Red Hot (#5). It seems like these Kantarmaci horses that ship up from Oaklawn are pretty live, and this one didn't run that badly in a couple of starts down there. Those races are generally more competitive than similar conditions here. This horse clearly wants the distance, and it's probably a good sign that Manny Franco is named aboard this one of the pair.

RACE 4

There's a case to be made for all runners in this highly competitive $50k claimer. It's hard to identify the horse to beat, but Twenty Four Mamba (#2) feels like a runner who should work out a pretty good trip. There isn't that much speed signed on, and he has the ability to attain forward position. Gustavo Rodriguez does tend to do much better off the claim with routers than sprinters, but this horse may have upside. He ran better than it looks when chasing wide against the bias last time. Three Technique (#3) has some past races that would make him awfully tough here, but he really tailed off for these connections at Oaklawn and doesn't have any early speed. If I'm going to look beyone Twenty Four Mamba, it will be with the Chad Summers runners. Bermuda Blitz (#1) is mildly appealing after racing wide against the track bias last time. He didn't get the most comfortable trip two back when stuck inside behind the leaders for the last half of the race. Yet his top effort on Nov. 29 was aided by a rail bias. I prefer Tuskegee Airmen (#6), who draws well outside this time. He got an inside post in his last start and was mildly shuffled back early behind a slow pace. He did spend some time in the advantageous rail path, but I still liked the way he closed into the slow pace. He's only tried this 7-furlong distance once in his career, but he won that day and it should be perfect for him here.

RACE 5

It's mostly guesswork for me in this maiden claimer. Those with experience don't do much for me. She's Bankable (#6) was wide against the rail bias last time, but that wasn't much of a field behind the winner. Chardonnay Derby (#4) didn't run a step on debut at Saratoga, but she is bred to be a dirt horse. She has seemingly worked better for her return. I would rather go with first time starters, and the two drawn closest to the rail are most appealing. Neeka (#2) sold for $82k after working a furlong in 10 3/5 at Timonium last year. She shows a solid worktab for the debut. David Duggan isn't known for winning with firsters, but this one appears to be spotted appropriately. I slightly prefer K Gun (#1), who debuts for another trainer, Horacio De Paz, who tends to give horses a start. Yet I like that she's by 17% debut sire Violence with some class on the dam's side. Ricardo Santana, Jr. gets live mounts for this barn, and she may get somewhat overlooked due to drawing the rail.

RACE 6

Some speed has scratched out of this race, which probably helps Vibrant Express (#3). I'm still skeptical of this runner as he steps up in class seeking his fifth win in a row. He has had track profiles and paces in his favor, and I would be mildly surprised if he were able to win at this level. Pair of Socks (#6) projects to sit a great trip perched just outside the speed. He's another moving up in class, but he beat the track bias winning last time. He also ran into an unusually strong rival for the starter allowance level two back when beaten by stablemate Porosity. I view him as the horse to beat, but I want to give My Mitole (#4) a chance to rebound as he returns on short rest. I'm not concerned about the quick turnaround since he barely participated when last seen a week ago. He was immediately taken off the pace and ridden very conservatively on the turn before making a belated bid through the fog. He had been in great form prior to that, and doesn't need to rally from as far behind as last time.

RACE 7

I don't have a clever take on this Jimmy Winkfield. Igniter (#4) has shown stakes quality right from the start, beating a strong field when he broke his maiden last September. Trying 1 1/8 miles in the Remsen was too much for him, but he didn't even run that badly, hanging in until the final furlong. He got back on track last time with a powerful victory, beating a track bias while pulling clear. He has to turn back to 6 furlongs here, but it's not as if there's that much speed in this race to run away from him early. I'm not trying to beat him. I do think Time to Roll (#3) will perform better than he did last time when he was wide against a rail bias. I just don't think even his victory against New York-breds two back quite measures up against the two wins by the favorite.

RACE 8

I don't have many major knocks against Malu (#1), who owns superior form and is the clear class of the field. The main problem is that she's struggled to stay on the racetrack recently. It was understandable that she got a break last April after keeping up a heavy workload through the winter. However, I don't like that she went back to the sidelines after that one return start in December. She didn't even run that badly against open company, but now she's dropping back down in class to be risked for a $45k tag. That's generally not a great sign for Linda Rice horses. The problem is that the alternatives aren't terribly appealing. Fast and Frisky (#2) rode a bias to victory last time. Lika Rolling Stone (#3) can win only if others step backwards slightly. The best I can come up with is Khali Magic (#6), who has to turn things around after disappointing in two starts following a brief layoff. However, she was just run off her feet against a better field two back, and last time got caught chasing wide against the track bias. She's a candidate to rebound here, and I do think she has a chance to get ahead of these early switching to the more aggressive Ruben Silvera.

RACE 9

Among those with experience, I do think Pride of the Union (#2) merits some respect. He was chasing outside against the rail bias last time, and his prior two efforts are pretty solid. I view him as the horse to beat, but there are a couple of intriguing first time starters to consider. Irish Goodbye (#9) is out of a debut winner who raced for Christophe Clement, who bred this filly. She now goes out for Brad Cox, who doesn't have the strongest stats with firsters on this circuit. Yet she has been working well for this unveiling. I slightly prefer the South Florida shipper Love Coin (#5), a gelding by Hard Spun. This is another with some dam's side pedigree, being a half-brother to talented allowance performer Listentoyourheart. I watched videos of a few workouts from a while back and the horse appears to have some ability. Miguel Clement has had a quiet winter up north, but he did ship up Galinda from Payson to win her debut. Notably, Manny Franco is off Pride of the Union to ride this firster.