TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

If this race stays on turf, Through the Years (#1) is obviously going to take a lot of money coming of her narrow defeat on debut at Keeneland. She seemed to be on her way to a sure victory before shortening stride as her rider seemed to get surprised by the late run from the eventual winner. She'll obviously be tough if she runs as well here. However, Wesley Ward is just 8 for 64 (13%, $0.66 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf sprints over 5 years. The two first time starters who look most dangerous as alternatives are Fire Song (#2) and Just Peachy (#3). There's no workout video available for Fire Song, and we don’t know much about first crop sire Fire At Will, but she does show some solid work times at Turfway. I did watch video of Just Peachy, who was easily best in an Apr. 30 drill and then responded to pressure nicely on May 7, edging ahead on the gallop out. She's bred to be a nice turf horse, and seems like one that can win on debut even though her trainer doesn't have great stats with these types.

RACE 2

I didn't have a strong opinion here. It seems like a first time starter will probably win here since those with experience don't do much for me. Some may go to Morning Menace (#3), who has been the Payson work partner of Minute by Minute, who ran poorly last weekend for Chad Brown. This filly's replays last year for Brad Cox didn't get me excited. Of those with experience, I thought Amended Dreamer (#1) was more interesting at a price since she's bred to be a dirt horse and has improved since her early dirt races as a 2-year-old. I went to Chad's first time starter Long Term Market (#5). She's bred to get better with distance, but I like the workout video that I've seen from her. Her overmatched work partner was fifth here on turf last weekend, but Long Term Market has had that one's measure in all of their drills. Highgrove (#2) seems like the other firster to consider. Frosted was a decent debut sire and she's got some pretty quick workout times for the Payson surface, though there's limited recent video of those drills.

RACE 3

I'm not trying to beat Celtic Dawn (#6) as she returns from a layoff. This filly won her debut at Saratoga very nicely, easily beating subsequent stakes winner Hot Currency. She was vanned off after the race and found to have a fractured pastern. It's taken a while to get her back, but she appears to be working well for the return, and she's not catching a particularly tough field.

RACE 4

I'm again going with an obvious favorite. Silver Talent (#1) had worked well down in Florida and was well meant on debut. He just ran like a horse who needed the race experience. He was slow into stride from the rail and only got down to serious running in the second half of the race. He finished nicely through the lane and galloped out best. I don't mind him stretching out to a mile, and he clearly has more upside than main rival Dark Assault (#3). The Phipps runner has shown some ability and runs like a horse that should get this added distance. I just expect Silver Talent to beat him if he puts things together second time out. Chad Brown's stellar statistics with these types suggest that's likely.

RACE 5

Jubilee Parade (#6) is the one to beat given his positive turf sprint experience in a race lacking much turf form of any kind. I can't say that I love any of this colt's replays, but he obviously fits well in this spot. I'm just not keen to take a short price. Miguel Clement sends out the two most interest alternatives. He's My Kind (#5) has pedigree to be an effective turf sprinter and seems like a dangerous option. I wish I could have found video of his workouts to get some sense of his ability. I gave the nod to Grunge (#7) instead. While he doesn't have obvious turf pedigree, there is some to be found digging through the dam's side. He also moves like a turf horse, and notably worked on the turf following his debut at Saratoga last summer. That speaks to some intention to get him on this surface. If his speed transfers to the grass, he should prove tough to catch.

RACE 6

Linda Rice will only go with Oil Capital (#1) after scratching her other runner. He hopped at the start and got away slowly in his last start at this level, which put him out of position for the entire race. He doesn’t need the lead, but he races best from a forward position and he figures to get sent to the front from his rail draw. I expect Tiger Twenty Four (#6) to perform better as he turns back to a sprint race. He hasn't run this short since his career debut, but he's been running like a horse that needs a turnback in distance. He's just not finishing off his one-mile races very well despite traveling strongly to upper stretch each time. He has pedigree to go shorter and possesses the tactical speed to sit a good stalking trip at this distance. My top pick is Buttah (#4). He needs to rebound from a couple of poor efforts in his most recent starts over the winter. However, he is now going out for a new trainer following a brief freshening that he probably needed. He broke from the gate sluggishly in each of his last two starts, and that put him out of his preferred stalking position each time. Those were also some very tough fields for the level, so he's getting some class relief as he returns for the new stable. He was running speed figures last fall that would beat this group. It also doesn't hurt that he picks up Flavien Prat, who has a knack for attaining forward early positioning on horses like this.

RACE 7

After the scratch of expected favorite Lady Godiva, I didn't want to put Lady Rose (#5) on top at a short price. I'll hardly be shocked when she wins, but I don’t love that she went to the sidelines after that maiden score and want some validation of that performance. Sparkling Mama (#7) has speed and should appreciate stretching back out to a mile after getting outrun to the lead sprinting last time. She should control the pace up front here, and Manny Franco feels like a good fit for a filly who needs an aggressive rider.

RACE 8

After the scratch of the likely favorite, I'm against dropdown I Rest My Case (#8), who figures to take money. Her replays last year didn't fill me with confidence that she'd handle dirt. There are a couple first time starters to consider, but neither one had a terribly appealing profile. Lady Delilah (#4) has plenty of prior races that fit this level, but she's hard to take on top as an 0 for 21 maiden. I'll instead go with Grit N Glitter (#7), who returns from a brief layoff. She had run well on debut here last September, showing tactical speed and just missing. Since then she's lacked any early speed whatsoever, but I wonder if she can get a little more involved off the layoff. She has finished well in each of her last two starts since the blinkers went on, but her lack of focus early in her races puts her at a disadvantage. I do believe she has the ability to beat the favorite if she can finally run a complete race again.