TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 3

I'm not thrilled with the options in this $20k maiden claimer, especially when it comes to the two expected short prices. Battle Anthem (#7) is probably the one to beat based on his lone dirt effort at Tampa in March where he closed to pass half the field behind the talented but since sidelined Accelerize. However, it's not like this gelding was ever a serious threat, and his lack of any early speed whatsoever has to be a concern even as he drops in class. I also can't take main rival Very Satisfactory (#2), who has had more than his fair share of chances to break through this level. He's consistent, but he has made clear his disinterest in crossing the wire first. I suppose some might guess with first time starter Spirit Dragon (#1), who does have some pedigree, but I didn't want to take a firster in this spot. I'll instead try John the Baptist (#3) switching surfaces. This might seem like a strange horse to take given his turf profile, but this gelding strikes me as one that may be able to make the transition to dirt. His dam's side pedigree is all grass, but he is by More Than Ready, who can get dirt runners despite being regarded as such a strong turf sire. This horse has always trained well on dirt, even going back to his time in the Chad Brown barn. Furthermore, Mark Hennig does very well with this move. He is 7 for 28 (25%, $5.03 ROI) going from turf to dirt in NYRA maiden claiming races over the last 5 years.

Fair Value:
#3 JOHN THE BAPTIST, at 9-2 or greater
 

RACE 5

This conditioned claimer looks pretty wide open at first glance. I suppose the horse to beat is Lady Arwen (#2), who was too ambitiously placed off the claim last time and now drops back down to a realistic level. She finished second in a similar spot two back against a field that was arguably stronger than this one. I know it seems like she regressed off the claim for Antonio Arriaga, but I think she deserves another chance in this barn. I just doubt she's going to be much of a price against this field. Rivals like Foxy Cara (#1) and Dolce Sera (#4) both fit in this spot and have attracted the services of two of the top riders in the nation, but both mares struggle to find the winner's circle. I want to go in a different direction with Despo's Dream (#7). She moved up in class for her first start off the claim for this barn last time and was just slightly overmatched. She actually might have been more of a factor in that spot if not for the rail draw, as she never looked comfortable racing inside and was actually staying on well late once she finally found a clear path. I view that performance as a subtle step forward for her, and she already had prior form that makes her highly competitive against this field. She now draws outside with a chance to move forward again as long as the track is playing fairly.

Fair Value:
#7 DESPO'S DREAM, at 3-1 or greater
 

RACE 7

The main track at Aqueduct has been favoring speed for several days now, and it's worth monitoring if that changes with some expected rain on Friday. If being in front is an advantage, Certified Loverboy (#1) could be pretty tough for this field to beat. He is moving up in class a bit here, but he has been in pretty strong form lately. You can throw out his race two back where he lost the jockey, though notably he did run past the field to cross the wire first riderless even on that occasion. The stretch-out to 1 3/16 miles has to be the major concern for this horse, since he hasn't run quite as well in his two-turn races. That said, he did contest a very fast pace going 9 furlongs in January, and appears to be in better form now. Some will gravitate towards the back class of Masqueparade (#2), but his good efforts have been few and far between as of late. He did run pretty well two back at Oaklawn, but that wasn't the strongest field for the level. He also hasn't performed at his best on wet tracks, which he's likely to encounter here. Chileno (#3) makes some sense after finishing second at this level last time. Yet he didn't run nearly as fast as the 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure he achieved two back against claiming competition, and I wonder if he'll continue to move forward against tougher competition. He also has to prove that he can produce a top effort going this far, as his better efforts have come around one turn. I prefer a different horse from that April 13 race at this level. Mikealicious (#6) finished several lengths behind Chileno, but I didn't think he got the right trip given the race flow. Pirate dominated on the front end setting slow fractions, and Mikealicious was not only rated towards the back of the pack but also glued to the rail with little chance to advance from there. He still finished decently to be fourth, and I think he'll be capable of better from this outside post. He also gets some changes for this race, switched into the barn of Carlos Martin, who has enjoyed a productive last few months. He also gets a significant rider upgrade to Ricardo Santana, Jr.

Fair Value:
#6 MIKEALICIOUS, at 4-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 6

A few of the top players in this allowance optional claimer must prove that they're still capable of recapturing their best form from prior seasons. Octane (#4) leads that list as he attempts to rebound from the poor efforts that closed out his 2024 season. He's making his return switching into the barn of Amelia Green, who has had success with limited starters in recent months. He appears to be working well, but he attracted Flavien Prat and isn't likely to be much of a price. Nova Rags (#6) would benefit from any pace that develops in this spot, but he's also hard to trust after spending nearly a year on the shelf. His top efforts put him in the mix, but it's fair to wonder whether he's still capable of producing that form now as a 7-year-old. Rotknee (#3) is another with the back class to beat a field like this. However, he really tailed off in the second half of last year, and his return from a layoff last time was underwhelming. He's struggled to break sharply in recent outings, and that was a problem again last time. He did rush up to contest the pace, but did so into a slow opening quarter mile. The horse with the best recent performance is Twenty Four Mamba (#1), who improved significantly off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci last time, upsetting a heavy favorite and earning one of the best speed figures of his career. While Tom Morley has pretty good statistics off the claim himself, I am a little concerned about this horse holding his form through all of these barn changes, especially since he lacked consistency previously. My top pick is Ridgewood Runner (#2). He's obviously going to need a few rivals to underperform if he's to beat this field, but the likelihood of such a scenario playing out seems fairly strong. He is coming off two lackluster performances, but I can easily excuse his Tom Fool, where he was simply overmatched against superior competition. His last race is better than it looks, since he didn't break that sharply and was always out of position from there. He got shuffled back to last behind a slow pace and pushed wide on the turn, but he never stopped trying through the lane. This horse should get a more aggressive ride with the switch to apprentice Christopher Elliott and he's getting back out to his favorite 7-furlong distance.

Fair Value:
#2 RIDGEWOOD RUNNER, at 6-1 or greater
 

RACE 8

Orie (#1) seems like a deserving favorite as he returns from a layoff and drops in class. This horse ran pretty well in all three appearances last season. He clearly failed to get the two turns when he tried to stretch out in late August, but his surrounding sprint races were solid efforts. He ran into a pretty good rival in winner Friend Ofthe Devil in his juvenile finale, and now is facing a softer field of maiden claimers as he returns from a layoff. I prefer him to the other horses with significant turf experience, such as Cousin Ed (#6) or Army Proud (#9). Hard Par (#13) draws in off the AE list and is mildly interesting dropping down even though he's already had plenty of chances on turf. I'm just more interseted in a couple of horses switching surfaces. I don't know if Oat Coutour (#10) has much ability, since he his debut effort was a dull one against weaker company. However, his pedigree suggests that this switch to turf should suit him. He's by decent turf influence Tourist, and his dam was strictly a turf horse, albeit routing. I just wonder if he really wants to sprint or will eventually prefer more ground on this surface. My top pick is Pandemic Hero (#3) switching back to grass. He made one prior start on this surface as a 2-year-old, where he didn't take much money for a Wesley Ward first time starter, showed speed and faded badly. His subsequent start on dirt was even worse, so it would appear that he just wasn't ready to be a racehorse at that point in time. Yet he's returned in much better form recently, finishing second in a pair of dirt races in April while sustaining his speed much better. He has turf pedigree, being by good influence Munnings, out of a dam who has produced a turf winner. He appears to be possess the speed to get out in front early, and he may be able to carry it farther on this surface.

Fair Value:
#3 PANDEMIC HERO, at 9-2 or greater