TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Coquito (#1) will obviously be a handful if she transfers her recent form into a new barn, making her first start off the claim for Michelle Giangiulio. While she is moving up slightly in claiming price, this is a very weak $20k claimer compared to the races she's exiting. She has the speed to get forward from the inside in a race that doesn't appear to feature much speed. The only horse I would consider as a potential upsetter is Whistler's Style (#2). This mare generally needs more pace assistance than she's likely to get here, but the track has been kind to closers this week. She actually stayed on decently into a slow pace last time against a much tougher field than this one. This is her best distance, and she should be a fair price for low-profile connections.

RACE 2

This starter optional claimer didn't draw a very big field, but it's still a competitive race where cases can be made for everyone. Southeastern (#1) may go favored for the powerful duo of Brad Cox and Flavien Prat. They teamed up for this gelding's maiden victory last time when he seemed to appreciate stretching out in distance, drawing off to win by over 7 lengths. A repeat of that 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure certainly puts him in the mix but hardly makes him a standout in this field. The fastest horse from a speed figure standpoint is Bala de Plata (#3), who has posted TimeformUS Speed Figures of 96 and 94 in his last couple of starts at Laurel. He's a proven router, having made four consecutive starts at distances of a mile or farther. He tired noticeably when finishing second last time, but he paid the price for setting a very fast pace. He will likely hook up with Southeastern early. The Obliterator (#2) would benefit from any pace that develops as he makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. He was beating a weaker field when he finally broke his maiden last time, but Rice does have very strong statistics with horses coming into her barn off maiden victories. My top pick is Capanaparo (#5), who returns from a minor layoff after disappointing when last seen at this level at Keeneland. He didn't get the most comfortable trip that day, stuck inside early and appearing to get discouraged while racing through kickback. He didn't have to encounter any kickback when he broke his maiden two back, perched wide outside of dueling leaders before taking over. He finished off that race like a horse who would appreciate added ground, and he's bred to go longer. I also like that he's drawn outside here, which should allow him to work out his preferred trip.

RACE 3

Gatsby (#2) is one of the best gate horses on the circuit. His ability to outbreak the field coupled with his superior early speed puts him in advantageous position in most races. However, he has had the luxury of backing down the pace before sprinting home in his last two victories for Ilkay Kantarmaci. He may not get that same trip here with the speedy Looms Boldly drawn to his outside. The 5 1/2 furlong distance is ideal for him, but the track profile hasn't been in his favor this week. The most interesting alternative might be Burninhunkoflove (#3), who should sit a good trip right in behind the speeds. He's exiting a loss as the favorite at a lower level just 9 days ago, but that was a reasonably strong race for the level so I don't feel that this is actually much of a class hike. He's generally been in solid form lately and he tends to run his best races over wet tracks.

RACE 4

I found it hard to look past the two likely favorites in this $12,500 claimer. My First Love (#2) is the class of this field as she drops down out of a series of tougher races. She's actually been fairly consistent through recent starts, and has just been slightly overmatched. This is a realistic spot for her, and I don't mind her cutting back in distance. She's just going to be a very short price with Flavien Prat aboard. Perhaps we'll get slightly better odds on Problematica (#6), who does look like the controlling speed. She's another getting some class relief after competing against tougher company. She faded without much excuse 8 days ago, but that was going 7 furlongs. She's generally better over slightly shorter distances, and her outside post position should give apprentice Dalila Rivera plenty of options.

RACE 5

Perhaps it's as simple as Gypsy Dreaming (#2) finally finding the softest field of his career, as he does appear to be the most naturally talented horse in this race. He owns the fastest speed figures in this field, and he did have a legitimate excuse last time when going too fast up front in a race that ultimately fell apart. He'll be tough to beat if Kendrick Carmouche can ration out his speed better this time. I just have to take a small shot against him with Lough Currane (#1), who was no match for that rival when they met last time. Yet he was another chasing that fast pace and he seemed to get discouraged after he wasn't able to keep up early. He ran deceptively well two back when he lost position on the far turn before coming again late. He gets an intriguing rider switch to the talented apprentice Yedsit Hazlewood.

RACE 6

Party in the Army (#6) drew best of the contenders, but this will be his first start against winners. He was game to nearly survive a fast pace two back, and last time he finally won against an overmatched field. He's pretty gritty, but I do have some concerns that this pace could heat up. I'm hoping that Wamo (#2) can revert to the tactics that he used to break his maiden two back. He settled well off the pace that day and made a wide run to victory. Last time he broke better and forced the pace between horses before fading late. He won't be much of a price after the scratch of Pantherian, but I slightly preferred him.

RACE 7

This unusual $100k claiming race has brought together an intriguing field of runners coming from various directions. Light the Way (#6) is probably the one to beat after winning a high-level allowance optional claimer last time. The race came up slow for the level, but he did defeat a couple of rivals that he meets again here. He's logical, but I do have some concerns that his form is heading in the wrong direction. Dr. Kraft (#5) has arguably been the most consistent horse in this race, especially since getting claimed by Ilkay Kantarmaci. He was no match for the talented Doc Sullivan against stakes company last time, and he doesn't visit the winner's circle that often. Yet he always shows up, and he appears to fit very well at this level and distance. My top pick is Bramito (#4), who makes his first start off the claim for trainer Steven Schauer. This barn had great success through the first half of 2025, but then disappeared after Saratoga. This will be Schauer's first starter since Aug. 29 of last year, but there's no reason to think he won't pick right back up where he left off. Bramito is another who has held his form well through recent starts, and he didn't get the most comfortable trip when going 9 furlongs last time. I don't mind this distance for him, since he ran deceptively well when fourth behind Light the Way and Dr. Kraft going this trip in October.

RACE 8

Power of Women (#3) has taken money in both prior starts for Charlton Baker. She was surprisingly live against a much tougher field on debut and then was the heavy favorite when she dropped in class last time. She's been mildly disappointing considering that tote support, but she does appear to fit well at this level. The Baker barn has been on a strong run lately, and she looks like the controlling speed. The other horse for me is Probable Angle (#2), who drops in for a tag following one maiden special weight attempt this summer at Saratoga. The race didn't come up very fast, but she stayed on well for third and should be competitive at this level with routine improvement since then.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Alias (#6) will be a handful on the drop in class if he actually returns on 8 days' rest for Linda Rice. He was simply overmatched against maiden special weight foes last time, but his prior effort for this barn makes him the horse to beat. He's in for the $40k tag, but I do think there are a couple of New York-breds not in for a tag who are eligible to move forward in this dual condition race. The obvious one is Poppy's Ticket (#5), who didn't seem to appreciate stretching out to a mile last time, especially given his wide trip. I like him cutting back after he encountered a tougher group sprinting off the layoff. My top pick is Don Luis (#4), who actually finished ahead of that rival when they met on May 4. This colt had an experience edge that day, but he was coming off a layoff and improved significantly on his juvenile form. He's been off for a while, but now returns for new trainer Ralph D'Alessandro. This barn has run two horses in recent weeks first off a trainer switch for this owner, with one finishing second at 47-1 and the other third at 88-1.

RACE 2

For the Ladies (#3) will be the Tom Morley runner to participate after the scratch of stablemate Interstatelovesong. I preferred this filly anyway given her superior early speed, nearly surviving a fast pace in her losing debut. She's the speed of the speeds, and will be tough to reel in against this small field. Ohoopee (#5) is the wild card making her first start off the claim for Linda Rice, but I didn't think she was beating much of a field at Churchill last time.

RACE 3

Perhaps it's as simple as dropping back down in class for Whiskey N Soda (#1), who just found starter allowance competition to be too tough last time. I still wanted to see him do a little more running in that spot, since his return victory in November seemed like a solid starting point for a horse who had once shown potential. He just never seemed to get over a deep and tiring surface, and the track still has that same profile a few weeks later. I don't need to settle for a short price on him with Flavien Prat getting back aboard. Best Bet (#6) might have the best overall form of anyone in here, and might have been facing tougher company in recent starts against open claimers. I'm still not convinced that he's really at his best going this far, but he did nearly get the distance last time.

RACE 4

It's hard to look past the two fillies dropping out of the $500k New York Stallion Series stakes. Hot Currency (#5) outstayed Daniella Marie (#1) in the final furlong that day as they both settled for minor awards behind Braverthanubelieve. I don't see why the result should be much different here, since Daniella Marie drew a tough rail post position with plenty of speed drawn to her outside. Last time she had the opportunity to stalk outside of Hot Currency, and still couldn't forge past that foe. Now Hot Currency should be in the position to sit just off the speed, and it should work to her benefit. I did think Irish Fortune (#3) did some nice things on debut, but she has to get faster and likely workout a different trip this time.

RACE 5

Sagamore Mischief (#3) is the one to catch in this $30k claimer where he figures to play out as the main speed. He got hooked up in an early duel last time and was unable to hold off some classy late runners. He's not getting minor class relief, and should be competitive with a similar effort. He's been admirable consistent ever since stretching out for Gustavo Rodrigeuz. Mr. Ripple (#5) should sit a good trip perched outside of that pace foe. He was facing a much better group at the allowance level last time, and didn't get the most comfortable trip. He was hung wide early and then guided down to the rail behind foes for the stretch drive. I don't mind the slight cutback for him, and the class relief should help. He's one of two that I want to focus on, with the other being Jackson Heights (#4). He's another who has faced better rivals recently. This gelding can be highly pace dependent, but there is a possibility that Sagamore Mischief gets hooked by Shared Success early, which would help this late runner's cause. He's primarily sprinted in recent starts, but I don't mind him stretching back out in distance. He would also be helped if the track is playing the same way as yesterday when outside closers appeared to have an advantage.

RACE 6

There appears to be some quality among this group of 7 new 3-year-olds vying to break their maidens on Saturday. Right to Party (#5) may go favored as he exits a very fast race for the level when chasing home the talented duo of Iron Honor and Crossingthechannel. He ran like one who probably needed the race, lacking early speed before staying on well for third. He's bred to stretch out for a barn that has had great success with its youngsters over the last year. I'm not as optimistic about Felonious (#3), who figures to also attract support. He did improve getting on dirt for Todd Pletcher last time, but I wonder how much further improvement there could be with this third time starter. Good Illusion (#1) is another making the third start of his career, but I think he has a little more upside as he makes his second start off a layoff. He clearly needed his debut at Saratoga in that fast race won by It's Our Time. He failed to make much of an impact in his return last time, but the slow pace of that affair did him no favors and that was a fairly strong field. I would expect him to show a bit more speed this time. My top pick is second time starter Dr. Sinatra (#7), who just missed second on debut behind the experienced Hedge Ratio. He broke from an inside post and didn't get the most comfortable trip. He tried to run up on heels early and had to be taken under a hard hold while rating behind the moderate pace. I liked the way he never backed out of that position and found an extra gear once he found room along the rail in upper stretch. This son of Speightstown has plenty of route pedigree on his dam's side, and looks like one who should appreciate stretching out. I also expect him to get into a better early rhythm from this outside post. John Terranova is 8 for 48 (17%, $2.02 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt over 5 years.

RACE 7

Good Lord (#2) will probably take plenty of money as he makes his first start off the claim for Brad Cox. It's just hard to get too excited about a horse who is 1 for 18 with 5 seconds. He's arguably faced slightly tougher competition in his recent starts in Kentucky, but he also has had chances to win a couple of those races and hung in the late stages. Perhaps he gets over that issue for a barn that gets horses to win, but he could be overbet first off the claim. Playa Del Mar (#4) is the other who will take money, and the class relief could be meaningful for him. I just haven't really been impressed with any of his races and wonder how good he really is. Amy's Music (#1) ran respectable at this level last time despite getting an unorthodox trip. He was forward early, but then got steadily shuffled back, losing momentum at the quarter pole before coming back for fourth late. He has returned as a better horse since the layoff last fall, and he can do better if he runs a more complete race here. The horse I really want to bet is Salming (#7), who stretches out on dirt for the first time in his career. He handled routing on turf, but has only sprinted on dirt. He was visually impressive when he broke his maiden at Laurel two back. Then last time he got off to an awkward start and made a middle move before flattening out. I think he can get into a better rhythm breaking outside this time. He's bred to stretch out, and looks like one that wants to go longer.

RACE 8

I wish I could have found a more clever take on this race, but the two favorites do appear to be the right horses. Nina Kay (#9) has been a little disappointing since that runner-up result behind With the Angels early in her career, still searching for her second victory. Yet she's catching a relatively soft field for this level and is supposed to get a decent pace setup. I thought either she would close them down late, or Lady Angelina (#5) would hold off the closers. The latter really stepped forward when she got back on dirt last time, and will be tough if she repeats that effort against winners. I suppose Rare Society (#2) has an outside chance after also improving to break her maiden last time, but she was no match for Lady Angelina when they met in November.

RACE 9

Among those with experience Hire the Hat (#6) looks like the one to beat after having run well in both prior starts. I wish we had seen a little more speed figure progression last time, but I did appreciate her improved early speed. However, now she's facing a few first time starters that could be well meant. The one with the best pedigree is obviously Princess Jane (#11), a daughter of Grade 1 winner Princess Violet. The works look fairly ordinary, but it might be meaningful that she attracts Flavien Prat. The firster that intrigues me most is Galinda (#8), who goes out for capable debut trainer Miguel Clement. I only got a glimpse of one prior workout going all the way back early November and she looked like a horse with some ability, well held all the way while never allowed to do much. She's bred to win early, and I'm expecting a solid effort on debut.