TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

The two likely favorites in this opener both have questions to answer. Master of Arms (#5) exits a victory against $10k claimers last time, and now moves back up in class to the $16k level. While Antonio Arriaga has had success off the claim, his stats with short prices making this move leave something to be desired, and isn't so easy to claim off Linda Rice. Ten Cent Town (#7) also figures to attract support as he moves into the Linda Rice barn. However, she's slashing his claiming price in half following a disappointing effort last time out. Rice has good statistics making this drop off the claim, but this horse has struggled to find the winner's circle recently. My top pick is Screaming Uncle (#4), who I have to try one more time after he was chasing outside against a minor rail bias on Nov. 29. The previously stamina-challenged Looms Boldly was carried along by the racetrack to wire that field, and Screaming Uncle understandably tired after chasing in the 2-path. He has occasionally run races that would give him a big chance here, and it's been a while since he's competed this cheaply.

RACE 2

Wesley Ward runners typically attract plenty of attention when they ship in to the NYRA circuit, and Floodlites (#1) is another that should prove popular with the bettors. He was only defeating $80k conditioned claimers that day, but it was a relatively strong field for the level. It was just the second dirt start of his career, and it looked like he really appreciated getting back on this surface. The likely leader is Sacrosanct (#6), but he's tough to trust after disappointing in his only appearance this year. It's possible that he was a precocious two-year-old that just hasn't gone on, and the fact that Linda Rice doesn't name one of her primary riders might be a red flag. I prefer her other runner Ranger Battalion (#5), who has been well managed since Rice claimed him for $50k this spring. He picked up plenty of checks against starter allowance foes before breaking through at that level last time. His recent performances are slightly better than they look on paper, since he moved too soon into a fast pace two back, and last time closed into a slow pace. He should stack up well against a group that isn't that strong for the level. My top pick is My Mitole (#4), who returns on short rest, having just competed a week ago on Cigar Mile day. While that was also an N1X allowance, this race didn't come up nearly as tough as last week's contest. He was facing future stakes horse Life and Times, and no one could get close to that dominant winner. While he was never winning that race, the post position and ride didn't do My Mitole any favors. He was hung outside right from the start, and Flavien Prat made little attempt to save ground, handling him very conservatively while content to lose ground into the lane. He did ultimately set him down in the stretch, and he actually finished with good interest. He also ran better than it seems two back when he was wide against a minor rail bias. I don't mind him turning back, and he's reunited with the jockey who piloted him to both career victories.

RACE 3

Crossingthechannel (#3) will obviously be a handful against this group if he replicates that debut effort at Laurel, for which he earned a 79 Beyer and even more impressive 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was defeated by a fellow first time starter that day, so it's hard to assess the quality of that race. He was competing over a muddy track, so he will have to prove he can handle fast going here. I prefer Fightforallegiance (#5), who showed promise despite racing greenly on debut. He failed to step forward when he stretched out in distance second time out for Linda Rice, but perhaps this son of Violence didn't really appreciate the added ground. He also never seemed comfortable racing inside of horses that day, and Kendrick Carmouche basically wrapped up on him at the quarter pole. It seemed like he had more to give, and Kendrick didn't appear to ask him for a full effort. I like him turning back now that he showed the ability to display better early speed, and he gets a rider switch to the more aggressive Ruben Silvera. There are also firsters to consider. Funky See Funky Do (#6) might take money for the dangerous Chad Summers barn based on some quick works, including a 46 3/5 drill that was in company with the barn's recent debut winner Game for It. I prefer Right to Party (#7), a $325k yearling buy for Chester Broman. It's interesting that this colt was given to Ken McPeek, since his assistant Jimmy Jerkens used to train some nice horses for Broman. McPeek's 2-year-old's under Jimmy's care have fared well in New York all season, and it would hardly be a surprise if this one were ready first time out.

RACE 4

I'm not inclined to give a second chance to Coffee Talk (#3), who may go favored again as he makes his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. This horse has that one maiden-breaking effort at Keeneland that would make him pretty tough against this field. However, his surrounding form isn't particularly convincing, and he was disappointing last time despite getting a good trip on top of a moderate pace. Sir Kartrite (#5) exits that same race and can obviously win, but he's another who benefited from a friendly pace scenario. The front end figures to be much more hotly contested this time. That's a reason why I downgraded Social Hour (#2), who exits a fast victory here 8 days ago. Yet he may not be quick enough to make the lead this time, and he enjoyed a very soft lead after one of his main pace rivals failed to break last time. I prefer two horses coming out of the Nov. 1 race at this level won by Three B's. The pace may not look that fast on paper, but it completely fell apart for closers. Uncle Jim (#4) didn't break that well and had to rush up to lead before fading only as the race fell apart late. He shows pretty solid recent form for Horacio De Paz, whose barn has subtly been doing very well between here and Turfway in recent weeks. I also like him turning back to 6 furlongs. The other horse exiting that race that I want to use is Timaeus (#7). He got caught very wide chasing Uncle Jim early, and never caught that foe before throwing in the towel late. However, he may benefit from race flow here if the pace comes apart. He has an opportunity to rate off the leaders and finish, a style he's used with success sprinting in the past. He figures to be the better price and I like that there's no drop in class for a horse who has raced against cheaper before.

RACE 5

I have some reservations about Flat On (#5) at what figures to be a short price. He is making his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who takes him back after she trained him for a few starts earlier this year. He did get back into decent form for Rudy since dropping to this level in his last few starts. However, I didn't think he had a major excuse last time, and the form of that race wasn't exactly flattered when Whiskey N Soda was uncompetitive against tougher earlier this week. Awesome Empire (#8) was second in that same race. He'll benefit from any pace that develops here, but he was no match for a couple of today's rivals going this distance two back. He might have improved off the claim for Michelle Giangiulio last time, but I suspect that's the best he has to offer right now. I prefer the other closer Smilensaycheese (#9), who stretches out to a mile for the first time since getting claimed by Linda Rice. He failed to handle this distance early in his career, but I suspect he's better equipped to go this far now that Rice has him heading in the right direction. He may be the most naturally talented horse in this field, but he's just so hard to trust, since he gets out badly on the turns and doesn't always appear to have his mind on running. I have to bet Confabulation (#4), whose last race isn't nearly as bad as it looks on paper. That Nov. 7 affair featured a total pace collapse, as he was part of a 3-way early duel for the lead in a race dominated by closers. The margin of defeat was exaggerated by the fact that he was basically eased in the stretch. He had been in better form prior to that, and actually beat Flat On at this level two back. There is other speed in here, but he can rate successfully, and he gets an interesting rider switch to Christopher Elliott, who has had success for this barn.

RACE 6

I found it hard to look past the two likely favorites in this maiden affair. Liberty's Advance (#2) is obviously the horse to beat in her current form. She ran well on debut in a stakes at Finger Lakes that hasn't exactly been flattered by runbacks. Yet she's validated her own form in two subsequent starts. She cut back to a sprint in her first try against maidens last time, and was a little unlucky to lose after getting held up in traffic on the far turn. That form was bolstered when the winner returned to take down a $500k NYSS stake with a 77 Beyer. She's the most likely winner, but I do think Hire the Hat (#9) is a serious rival. She got a good education on debut, have to adapt to rating tactics after breaking slowly. She angled wide on the turn and was staying on mildly late behind a runaway winner in a race of decent quality. She should fare better here with that experience under her belt.

RACE 7

Weigh the Risks (#3) has done very little wrong since getting onto dry dirt surfaces in her last 5 starts. Her only loss during that time was a second-place finish in stakes company back in February when she was chasing outside against a rail bias. She put in a huge effort to win with a 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure this summer at Saratoga, and then scored in workmanlike fashion coming off another layoff last time. I suppose it's a good sign that she's now finally putting races back to back with no layoff. She also figures to play out as the controlling speed in this small field. She'll be hard to beat, but I do wonder if she's better on faster ground than the demanding surface she'll encounter today. Stonewall Star (#6) ran well last time in a race that her trainer suspected she would need off the layoff. That sprint distance was a little short for her, and she has run some of her best races going a mile over this course in the past. She would be dangerous if she steps forward for this hot barn. I have to give one more chance to Scalable (#2), who lost to Weigh the Risks last time. She just ran out of ground closing over 7 furlongs after getting badly outrun early. That tendency to walk out of the gate has been an issue in both starts so far this fall, but her finishing ability suggests that a mile should help her cause. She won over a similarly slow and demanding surface in the Interborough last year, so I'm hoping that this track highlights her superior stamina.

RACE 8

My original top pick was scratch from this race, so I'm left with two short-priced options that I don't really want. Chad Brown's remaining runner Collect the Data (#5) will probably go favored off a facile victory against New York-breds last time. A repeat of that effort will make her tough here, but she had everything her own way up front that day. She proved vulnerable when challenged early two back, and there is certainly other speed to keep her honest up front in this spot. One of those rivals is the other favorite Save Us Melania (#1). Her best effort would probably put her in the winner's circle even ahead of Collect the Data. However, it's hard to know exactly when we're going to see her show up with a top performance. She lacks consistency, and she really needs the right kind of trip to get this mile distance. I'm concerned she could prove vulnerable late if she's under the gun from the rail. Given my distrust of these two favorites, I'll upgrade Rice's other runner Yankee Doodle (#10), who comes back into this barn from Finger Lakes. She has undoubtedly faced weaker competition in her recent starts, but I'm encouraged by her finishing ability. She's always hitting her best stride in the final eighth of a mile, and she beat a decent rival last time when taking down the in-form Ekwanok. Ruben Silvera seems like a good fit for a filly who needs some encouragement to gain early position, and I suspect she's going to excel over the tiring surface she'll encounter. She is bred to be a nice racehorse, out of a stakes-winning dam who has produced Grade 1-placed half-sister Taxed.

RACE 9

I don't have a major knock against Princess Becca (#5) in this finale. She had a right to need that return from the layoff last time where she obviously got tired after contesting the pace. This 7-furlong distance is perfect for her, and she doesn't need the lead to be successful. She's a logical contender, but probably a deserving favorite. I just slightly prefer a rival who is probably better than her last race indicates. Clearwater Beach (#7) made her first start on dirt in that Nov. 21 race at this level, and she finished a non-threatening fourth. However, I didn't think she was positioned to achieve the best result. She had more early speed than she was allowed to show, ridden very conservatively to get taken back to last in the early stages. She traveled well on the turn, but then was kept inside to weaver through traffic and kickback in the lane. That's a tough trip for a horse who has never been on dirt before. The pace was also on the slower side, so she was against dynamics. I expect she can do better in a race with more early speed, and I don't mind the slight cutback. I would also use Graceful Rose (#10), who was attempting to close in that same race last time. She's had more chances and generally settles for minor awards. Yet her recent form is a bit better than it appears and she does figure to be a square price.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

The presence of Flavien Prat on Doppio Espresso (#6) could attract some support in that one's direction. She is dropping, but I'm skeptical of her switching to dirt. She's bred for this surface, so it's curious that she was kept strictly on turf in her first three starts. You can see why when you watch her run, as she has much more of a turf action. Asking (#1) is the other class dropper to consider, and she has faced much tougher company in most of her dirt races. She traveled like she might be a danger last time, but then came up completely empty when asked in the lane. That running line suggests she may be better off sprinting. There isn't very much speed in this race, which could work against Marajoline (#5), who did appreciate getting back on dirt last time. I'm more interested in another rival from that Nov. 28 race. Clarividente (#3)vied for the front end with a couple of other rivals and paid the price, fading badly in the stretch. She also found herself chasing an even faster pace against a better field in her prior start. She clearly got discouraged in those situations, but she figures to get far more comfortable up front this time. She does have at least one race in her past that gives her a chance here, and Ruben Silvera has been riding well lately.

RACE 2

It's hard to get too excited about this one. Here's another race where Flavien Prat's mount may wind up taking money by default. There isn't that much to recommend about first time starter Princess Wadadli (#5). Her dam was a pretty nice horse for these connections, but it's still not easy to debut going a mile on dirt. Morgana's Moment (#1) might have some ability, but she was such a head case on debut, so it's hard to trust her here even adding blinkers. Lady Delilah (#3) is probably the most reliable option, having run well over this distance last time out. She may be more of a turf horse, but she's handled dirt well enough to beat a group like this. I want Bodegas (#7), who stretches out for the first time. The outside post and added ground should allow her to gain better forward position. She got mildly shuffled back along the inside last time before staying on late. She faced a significantly better field at this level last time, so she's getting class relief. She also has enough pedigree to handle the distance.

RACE 3

This race featured another Prat favorite that I don't find particularly convincing. Valentinian (#4) has been a disappointment, losing 7 straight races since winning against a weak field on debut. A turf experiment last time didn't work out, and now he's making his first start as a gelding. His best effort gives him a chance, but I don't need him at a short price. Double Your Money (#6) has to be respected given his consistency and razor sharp form. He exits a victory over 13 rivals in the Claiming Crown Jewel last time at Churchill. He obviously relishes the distance, and he's run well over this track before. I just think there are a couple of horses at bigger prices that offer greater intrigue. One of those is Noted (#5), who makes his first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci and some dangerous owners. He disappointed at a short price against weaker last time, but he hopped at the start and was always out of position. He then got hung wide over a track that was favoring inside runners. He's better than that, and should be able to attain forward position with a clean break. My top pick is Makes Sense (#8), who is an interesting claim for the red-hot Chad Summers barn. He's another coming off a less than stellar result, but he got shuffled back in the early stages of that race and was actually staying on decently in a moderately paced race behind a runaway winner. He's raced in nothing but one-turn races since breaking his maiden going this distance, and I think the longer the better for this colt. He needs a hustling ride to get forward from this post position over a track that has been kind to speed lately, but the price should be fair.

RACE 4

I don't have a major knock against likely favorite Fabian's Princess (#2). She didn't get the most comfortable trip on debut, getting rated from the inside, waiting for room on the turn, and then flattening out late. I won't fault her for failing to produce a kick since the leaders really sprinted home off slow fractions, and the winner returned to win a stakes next time. She's bred to stretch out, but may get overbet on that angle with Prat aboard. Bernina Express (#6) is another second time starter that intrigues me a bit. She debuted on turf, but she has a pedigree that can go either way, being a half-sister to multi-surface stakes runner Tripoli. She was getting a very good trip on debut before she got steadied past the quarter pole and lost valuable momentum for the stretch drive. She has to prove she can handle dirt, but there's upside with her. My top pick is Roseberns Dream (#5), who figures to be among the biggest prices in this field. She hasn't run very fast in either start, but she looked like she needed her off the turf debut, and she got involved a pretty contentious pace that totally collapsed on grass last time. She's returning to the races trying a dirt route for the first time, and is what she's bred to do. She's the half-sister to dirt route stakes winner Bernietakescharge, and Always Dreaming's progeny do best going long on dirt.

RACE 5

Melle Mel (#7) is sure to attract support with Flavien Prat taking over the mount for Tom Morley, whose barn has been on quite a roll over the last several weeks in New York. He is getting this horse from another dangerous trainer in Orlando Noda, and I find it interesting that he elects to stretch this filly out to a mile in her first start for the barn. Her prior form hardly suggests that more distance is supposed to benefit her, but she did finish pretty well going 7 furlongs in her most recent start. I have some reservations about her producing her best form over this trip, but she does possess early speed, which has been an advantage at Aqueduct lately. I much prefer her main rival Sassy Princess (#9), who is stretching back out to a mile after winning by over 11 lengths going this distance two back. That victory was achieved against weaker $17,500 beaten claimers, but she proved she can stack up against a field like this when finishing second at this level last time. That was her first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci, who curiously cut her all the way back to 6 furlongs. Not only did she handle this level, but she might have been best considering that she chased wide on a day when the inside path appeared to be an advantage. She has much more of a route profile, so I like her stretching back out here, and she has the tactical speed to attain forward position. The only other horse I want to use is Kadena (#5), who has been a bit of a disappointment since getting claimed by Linda Rice. However, I can make some excuses for her last two efforts. She didn’t seem to handle a muddy, sealed track two back, and last time she was chasing outside in that same rail-biased race that Sassy Princess exits. I'm not sure that the mile will suit her, but she figures to finally be a better price this time.

RACE 6

I couldn't come up with a clever take here. Baseball Lady (#6) is dropping in class out of some tougher maiden optional claiming events and should prove too tough for this group to handle. She won't be much of a price with Prat aboard, but the class relief coupled with the cutback in distance should be enough to put her in the winner's circle. I prefer her to Makealittlelove (#1), who is also dropping. Yet she just beat out a bunch of turf horses to finish second last time out. Island Charm (#3) is the other contender, but this might be a tougher race than the $50k maiden claimer she exits.

RACE 7

The three dropdowns figure to attract the bulk of support in this claimer and one of them is likely to win. I suppose Aggregation (#8) is the one to beat because he's consistently kept some of the best company, competing in primarily in allowance and stakes races over the last couple of seasons. He returned in good form at Saratoga, but he hasn’t moved forward since then, and his last race was a step backwards. The drop makes him tough, especially given the speed-oriented profile of the racetrack recently. However, there are others in here who want to be forward. That includes my top pick Tizmarkus (#5), who stretches back out to a mile for the first time since getting claimed by Orlando Noda. He ran a huge race off the claim for these connections, but has since been uncompetitive in a pair of allowance races. He did face much tougher company each of those times, and he was mildly compromised by race flow and track bias in his last race. While I do think slightly shorter is better for him, he did handle a mile at Churchill back in May and this distance should help him attain the forward position he'll need to be successful. The other dropdown is Lotsa Trouble (#6), who did win his only prior start against claiming company at a similar level. However, he's coming off a layoff and lacks any early speed, which could be a problem over this racetrack.

RACE 8

Sequential (#10) will obviously be tough to beat if he runs as well as he did last time when third behind a couple of superior rivals at a higher level. He'snever been the most reliable sort, but he obviously fits against this field and his early speed should play well here. I'm certainly using him, but I have to bet Grand Commander (#11) at a bigger price. This gelding deserves another chance now that he's making his second start off a layoff. He did show talent early in his career before quickly losing that form. Even though it looks like he hasn't been successful stretching out, I actually want this horse going longer. He can only be successful when he gets forward position, and this is the perfect draw for him to get the sort of unencumbered trip he needs.