TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Liberty Rising (#1) looks like the horse to beat after the scratch of Let's Get Weird. He has found a home at this maiden claiming level after knocking heads against much tougher rivals for the first 6 starts of his career. He didn't get the best ride two back, but was simply second best last time behind a superior rival. I just want a different horse out of that race. Aetherium (#8) didn't run as poorly as his 17-length margin of defeat would suggest in that Nov. 2 affair, as he never attained secure position from the rail and got shuffled back down the backstretch. He had shown some ability two back when only finishing a length and a half behind Liberty Rising with a wide trip. He has more upside than many in here, and the outside post should suit him.

RACE 2

Kay Cup (#6) will obviously be a handful if she gets back to her sprint-winning efforts from early in her career. However, her connections have tried to stretch her speed over 9 furlongs in her last two starts, and horses that make such a more aren't always as sharp as they used to be when they turn back in distance.Main rival Embraceable Gal (#4) races first off the claim for Linda Rice, who will try to get this mare back to the winner's circle. She's become content to settle for minor awards in the last couple of seasons, but perhaps that will change now she's moving into a hot barn. After the scratch of my original top pick, I want to upgrade Ariana Rye (#2), who returns from a layoff. This filly obviously disappointed when last seen at this level in April, but something may have gone wrong that day to trigger the layoff. She had been pretty consistent prior to that. She actually defeated Embraceable Gal a couple of times last winter, and was much the best in defeat after having some early trouble on Jan. 4. Robert Falcone can have horses ready off a layoff and she should sit a good inside stalking trip.

RACE 3

Bold Endeavor (#4) looks pretty formidable on paper, especially with that recent 81 Beyer victory at Parx jumping off the page. Notably, he was facing beaten claimers that day, and is moving into an open spot here. That said, it's not the toughest open $10k and this might even be slight class relief for him. The only knock against him is the fact that he's back in for a $10k tag on the NYRA circuit. Jamie Ness hasn't had much success with this cheaper claimers here, and you would think this horse would be targeted at one of the many starter races at Parx if connections were confident he'd hold his form. I'll instead take a shot with Because the Night (#1), who might look a cut below these on paper. Yet I can poke holes in the favorite, and there's no one else to fear in this spot. He was just rounding into top form this summer before being given a break. His sprint return was probably intended as a prep, and he traveled well from the back before getting taken up behind a spill on the far turn. Now he's stretching back out to a distance that suits him, and the price figures to be fair for low-profile connections that can send out some live longshots at times.

RACE 4

I suppose Spirit of Esther (#1) will go favored after she showed speed and faded at this level last time. That's been her pattern over the last several starts. Her lone career victory was earned going a mile on dirt, but that was a Wilson Chute race at Saratoga, a different sort of affair than this conventional one-turn mile. She's tried this distance at Aqueduct a number of times and just seems to lack finishing ability over this configuration. The horse coming back in this spot who achieved the best result in that Nov. 12 race is 17-1 runner-up That'sthefactjack (#8). She won't be nearly as generous a price this time coming off that career-best result. She had gotten up for third at a similar price in August at Saratoga, so it's not as if that recent improvement came out of nowhere. Yet she's still hard to take as one of the shorter prices given her 1 for 23 career record and overall lack of consistency. After the scratch of the horse I originally liked, I'll upgrade Calling an Audible (#3). She's another one who isn't exactly a winning type at 1 for 20 lifetime, but I do think she ran a bit better than it looks in her first start against winners last time. I prefer her going a bit longer even though she broke her maiden sprinting. Her speed figures fit with this field, and she seems a bit more reliable than many other options.

RACE 5

It's mostly guesswork for me in this multi-condition maiden. Among those with experience, Sixer (#6) looks like the one with the most upside. He was taken up at the start of his debut, then was climbing greenly at the back of the pack before staying on mildly. Carlos Martin can get horses to win second time out, and he's back at the same level. The only problem is that this may be an unusually tough race for this condition given the presence of some interesting firsters. Game for It (#7) is the obvious one with so many fast drills popping off the page. I don't love Known Agenda as a win-early sire, but Chad Summers has had success with these types in recent seasons. I slightly prefer Adamonthegrill (#3), who is in for the $75k tag. Though, I don't take that as a major negative. He worked a pretty nice-looking 21-flat at the OBS April sale, where he was an RNA for $95k. Street Boss is a solid win-early influence, and De Paz can win on debut. This colt also has some fast workouts, including a Nov. 15 gate drill that matches this barn's 3-year-old multiple winner Uncle Jim.

RACE 6

Island Charlie (#1) looks pretty logical on the dropdown as he makes his second start off the layoff. I actually liked him getting on the turf last time since he has plenty of pedigree for that surface. He showed speed and faded, probably just needing the race off the layoff. I think he has upside, but I would have preferred to see him staying on turf or targeting longer races. I'm not sure sprinting is his best gig, but it might not matter against this group. Hello Newman (#4) ran fine getting on dirt last time after a wide trip. He's not particularly interesting, but a contender nonetheless. I prefer the upside of Fric and Frac (#3), who makes just his second dirt start. He does have plenty of turf pedigree from his dam, but Leofric is more of a dirt influence and this horse ran like one who needed a race in that dirt debut. He may show more speed with blinkers going on.

RACE 7

Exploration (#8) is the one to beat as he drops in class after a poor effort against tougher last time. That race was dominated up front and didn't feature much pace, so he had an excuse. I still didn't love the way he lost position in the early stages of both of his last two starts and wonder if he could be pace-compromised again here. Let It Ride (#4) gets back on dirt for the first time since early 2024. While he ran fine on turf over the past year, he's never won on that surface and looked like more of a dirt horse early on in his career. He had excuses in his last two disappointing dirt outings, and deserves another chance on this surface, especially now that he's in a barn that excels with its dirt sprinters. Celestial Glaze (#7) might slip through the cracks here since he doesn't have anything particularly interesting going for him. He possesses a little more tactical speed than Exploration, and has proven that he belongs at this level. Seven furlongs is a more appropriate trip for him. He was compromised by a slow pace last time, and he was wide against an inside bias two back. I just think he's pretty logical and should be a square price.

RACE 8

Man in Finance (#1) is the logical horse to beat for Danny Gargan, who has won all of his limited starts so far at this Aqueduct meet. I just wasn't terribly impressed by this horse's last race, where he took advantage of a contested pace with two rivals dueling in front of him. He ultimately pushed past and stepped forward off his return at Saratoga. Yet now he's drawn the rail in a race that features plenty of speed outside of him, so he could find himself in a less comfortable early position. Yo Banana Boy (#4) already has plenty of experience at this level and arguably ran the best race last time when hanging on for second behind the classy National Identity, another Gargan runner. He's not the most reliable win candidate since he often settles for minor awards, but he has been pretty consistent as of late. With all the speed in here, you have to consider the lone closer Braciole (#8), who could potentially win this race if the pace completely collapses, but he's hardly the most talented horse in this field. I just think Yo Banana Boy is a much more likely winner, and he has at least shown the ability to stalk and pounce.

RACE 9

Shoot the Nickel (#6) is a convincing favorite as he drops all the way down to this $17,500 level after facing nothing but tougher competition since breaking his maiden over a year ago. Gold Square has made a few aggressive dropdowns lately, and Adrianne DeVaux did win with her horse Marcus Gift when she finally dropped him into a realistic spot last month. I'm not viewing this as a major negative for a horse who probably needs the class relief. There appears to be some pace in here to set up his late run. Pace might help Leading Role (#5) if he runs a similar race to last time. I'm not exactly sure where his early speed went, but he did adapt well to rallying tactics. However, the horse I want out of that race is runner-up Wajda (#10), who ran very hard in his return from the layoff. This gelding was almost unratable early as he ran off on the front end. He understandably tired going 7 furlongs, but now he's drawn well outside cutting back a furlong. I think he can step forward second off the layoff for Rice.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I had trouble seeing past the two likely favorites in this maiden opener. For the Ladies (#1) ran very well on debut, nearly surviving an extremely fast pace only to get nailed on the wire by a deep closer. Her pace-upgraded 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure would win most races at this level, and the form was flattered when pace rival Daniella Marie came back to win. However, I am scared of first time starter Rage Bait (#5), who rattled off a 46 1/5 gate drill last week. Mike Maker doesn't have great stats with firsters overall, but the barn has had a very strong fall season in New York. She's bred to be fast, by 21% debut sire Yaupon, and she looked pretty quick in her Timonium gallop back in May.

RACE 2

Chad Brown sends out a pair of first time starters who each could attract support in this one-mile maiden event.Permutation (#4) sold for $225k and has some pedigree to be precocious, but Brown's maiden winter rider Manny Franco lands on the Juddmonte homebred Romala (#5). That filly doesn't have much immediate pedigree, but her second dam is the multiple Grade 1 winner Sightseek. They appear to have been working together, and it would hardly be a surprise if both run well. Chad Brown just tends to get overbet with these types. I prefer some others with experience. Three Sixty (#2) ran well in her dirt debut at Saratoga. She's obviously been turf meant, but she has a versatile pedigree and may appreciate stretching out. I just had more confidence in Baffle (#1), who already tried this distance last time. She had a right to need that race coming off a 6-month layoff and just one prior 4 1/2-furlong outing. While her pedigree doesn't scream distance, she has a long, steady stride that suggests dirt routes suit her. I liked the way she stayed on after losing some position on the far turn last time. She now gets blinkers on and figures to get ridden more assertively than last time.

RACE 3

I don't really have many knocks against Higher Force (#7), who steps up in a logical spot off an N1X allowance win. This is a tougher field, but she appears to be the controlling speed once again, and she obviously relishes this 9-furlong distance. She's gained consistency since the claim by Rudy Rodriguez, and is clearly the horse to beat. I prefer her to main rival Fast and Frisky (#3), who is the class of this field, having already won at this level back in June. She faced a tougher field last time, but I'm not sure that she's really suited by stretching out in distance. I prefer the other Jorge Abreu trainee Ah Ca Ira (#4), who wants every bit of this 9 furlongs. She started out in cheaper races, but improved by leaps and bounds through the spring and summer, ultimately winning a first-level allowance in July. She was off for some time after that, and was no match for a tough group when she first tried this level last time. She got a wide trip and probably needed that race around one turn. She was also wearing goggles for the first time in that last race, and will have that equipment on again here, so perhaps she'll benefit from the experience. She fits well here if she can get back on track and build on her summer form.

RACE 4

Kadena (#3) is fairly logical after catching a tough off the turf field last time. She may not have appreciated the muddy track, and got caught extremely wide on the turn. Her first start off the claim for Linda Rice was a good effort, and makes her the horse to beat. Sassy Princess (#7) is mildly intriguing stepping up in class for Ilkay Kantarmaci, who is dangerous off the claim. I just question the cutback in distance to 6 furlongs, since she seems like a horse that prefers added ground. I'm intrigued by the return to dirt for Hue (#1), who ran well to break her maiden on the main track in the summer of 2024. Her connections then just seemed to abandon her dirt career as she made her next four starts on grass. While she did win once on turf, she didn't really improve on that dirt maiden win. I like her getting back on this surface, and she figures to show improved tactical speed with blinkers going on.

RACE 5

Stewie (#7) might just be getting the class relief he needs after facing tougher company at the New York-bred allowance levels in recent starts. It does feel like his form has tailed off a bit since the summer, but it hasn't helped that he's been outrun to the lead in a few of those spots. He should get a more comfortable trip breaking from the outside here, and main pace rival Looms Boldly isn't as fast as he once was. Another potential pace player is Screaming Uncle (#2). This is the horse I want to bet as he drops down in class to this $20k level (only the NY-breds race for $25k). He didn't run well last time, but he seemed to get discouraged after getting outrun to the front in a fast-paced affair. He held his own against some solid rivals two back, and he ran well to win going this distance back in June. He gets a rider upgrade to Ricardo Santana for this and should be a fair price for low-profile connections.

RACE 6

After the scratch of Mr. Papagiorgio, two horses figure to vie for favoritism. One of those is Ridgewood Runner (#3), who makes his first start off the claim for Orlando Noda. I have some reservations about this horse getting a mile, but I suppose he can improve for the new barn in a race that didn't come up that tough for the level. I just think Noted (#6) makes more sense as he drops out of tougher N2X allowance competition. He showed some fight before throwing in the towel against better foes last time, and has generally run well in his limited opportunities on dirt. I expect him to fit nicely at this level. Cicciobello (#7) is also in with a chance after the scratch, as this spot isn't so much tougher than the $32k claimer he exits. He has back class and is drawn well outside of the other speed.

RACE 7

It's hard to have too much confidence in anyone in this $20k maiden claimer. I defaulted to Linda Rice's Career Risk (#2), who is still relatively unexposed as a dirt sprinter. He was facing a much tougher field than this in that lone dirt sprint on debut. He wanted no part of the added distance second time out, and then failed to handle turf after a wide trip last time. Linda Rice is 7 for 20 (35%, $3.76 ROI) going from turf to dirt second off the claim over the last 5 years. The others are hard to get too excited about. Lean Music Machine (#7) returns to the barn of Bill Morey, but it’s not like he ran that well for him this summer. On the other hand, Morey's runners do tend to perform better in New York. Lough Currane (#1) has the speed to get involved from the rail and, like the top pick, faced a far tougher group in his only prior dirt attempt. They're the main three uses for me.

RACE 8

This is another race where I found it tough to look beyond the favorites. The Boondocker (#6) is logical as he drops down second off the claim for Tom Morley, whose barn has enjoyed a strong fall season. This former Chad Brown runner has been on a steady downward slide, but even his recent form might be good enough to beat this field. I just slightly prefer Last Man Standing (#8) for the red-hot Linda Rice barn. He wasn't beating much of a field last time, but it was a big step in the right direction after something seemed to go awry first off the claim. Rice is 10 for 32 (31%, $2.62 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in dirt claiming races over the last 5 years.

RACE 9

My primary take on this unusually deep starter allowance race is that I believe Nuanced (#2) is a vulnerable heavy favorite as he steps up against winners for the first time. I'm not quite convinced that his maiden victory at Keeneland is a true representation of his ability. His speed figures, a 91 Beyer and 116 TimeformUS Figure, absolutely tower over this field. However, it's fairly common for horses to run up exaggerated margins in two-turn dirt victories at Keeneland. The pace might look fast on paper, but he established a pretty easy lead from an inside post that day. I'm not sold that he can reproduce those numbers in a one-turn mile with other speed drawn outside of him. Among the recent maiden winners, I prefer Porosity (#3), who just won going this one-turn mile distance at Aqueduct. He beat an unusually strong $50k maiden claiming field, out of which today's rival Kavanaugh has already returned to win. This horse debuted in an extremely tough maiden event in his lone start last winter, and he appears to have returned as an improved horse after being given plenty of time to mature. Golden Symphony (#9) has had many more chances than those two lightly raced rivals, but he is coming off a strong effort at this level when only beaten by the classy Dreamlike. He had to be hard-used to make the lead from an inside post that day, and set some quick fractions. He actually showed grit to fend of challenges in upper stretch before succumbing to the winner's final bid. Drawing outside this time should benefit him. My top pick is Bermuda Blitz (#1), who figures to be rallying from somewhere in mid-pack. This 3-year-old showed promise as a younger horse last winter for Mark Casse before going off form for that barn. However, he seemed to improve when changing hands this summer in Kentucky. He hasn't won since a claiming victory at Ellis in July, but he's had some legitimate excuses lately. He got shuffled in traffic in August, and last time made an early move to take over at Keeneland in a race that completely fell apart late. He now switches into the barn of Chad Summers, making his second start off the claim for owner Roddy Valente. I believe he's better than he looks on paper, and a one-turn mile with a fair pace setup should be ideal for him.

RACE 10

The late double encompasses the two best races of the day from a handicapping perspective. This 13-horse New York-bred allowance is pretty competitive, and I could see some defaulting to the consistent Moe Eighty Eight (#8). Yet this is a turf horse who is totally unproven over a fast dirt surface. He did handle a sloppy dirt track in a stakes this summer at Saratoga, but that was an off the turf affair, and I'm reluctant to accept those results at face value. I prefer main rival Concorde Spirit (#13), who really improved first off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez last time. He nearly got the 9 furlongs, but he should be more comfortable turning back to a one-turn mile this time. He'll be a handful if he maintains that form. There does appear to be a decent amount of pace signed on, and I think there's some potential for the race to come apart late. That would benefit Resilient Hero (#11), who is finally putting races together after spending much of 2025 on the sidelines. He picked up pieces from far back against a tough field at Saratoga two back, and last time found himself having to be used early to chase wide in a small field. That effort is better than it looks on paper, since he's better when he can be reserved early and make one run. Now he's cutting back to the distance at which he broke his maiden earlier this year, and he figures to be a generous price for connections that don't typically take money. I even think Landauer (#10) is mildly interesting getting back on dirt. While he does prefer turf, he's clearly in the best form of his career right now and may be capable of better dirt efforts than he was producing last winter.