TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

DRF's Dave Grening reported earlier this week that likely favorite Twice the Life will be scratched from this race due to an infection, so four at most will compete here. There's still another six-figure daughter of Life Is Good in the mix, as Beach Life (#2) seems likely to inherit the favorite's role. I know very little about her or the other first time starters aside from what's on paper, but Beach Life goes out for Todd Pletcher, who has had the most success with these types of runners. It is more of a grass pedigree on the dam's side, being a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 turf winner Casa Creed, but main rival Outlaw Annie (#4) has a bit more turf in her pedigree as well. I'll just be watching these.

RACE 2

I couldn't get too creative here, and won't be trying to beat heavy favorite Apalta (#3). This gelding drops back down to a level that clearly works for him. He tried tougher foes in two of his last three starts for Linda Rice, but he's been an easy winner of both starts where he's dropped in for claiming tags similar to this one. He's also proven that he can handle this 9-furlong distance. Petrolo (#4) is another who is pretty convincing at the trip, but the downside with him is that he hasn't raced in over a year. Bourbon Chase (#6) has the best prior form in the field, but he hasn't run very well in three starts since returning from a layoff this year. It's intriguing that he's first off the claim for the dangerous Steven Schauer, but that wasn't enough to make me want to bet him.

RACE 3

Seat At the Table (#5) comes into this race in good form and seems realistically spotted after easily defeating a weaker field at Gulfstream last time out. She hasn't been particularly active since getting claimed about a year go, so it's good to see her now putting races back to back without a layoff. This race didn't come up particularly tough for the level, and she has the tactical speed to ensure she gets a good trip. I much prefer her to main rival Notable Exchange (#3), who does sport some of the best speed figures in the field. Yet I think those were a product of her facing tougher competition. She didn't do much running in either of those races and her prior form doesn't compel me. I was more intrigued by the pair going out for Derek Ryan. I always give this barn's runners a second look at NYRA since they seem to run so well here. I believe Mrs. Katz (#6) is better than the low speed figure assigned to her last race, but shew as still squarely defeated by her stablemate Stillthinkingofyou (#1) when they met on Mar. 20. That filly is coming off a minor layoff, but she appears to fit well at this level and drew well inside. She seems like an improving 4-year-old in a race where many of these have already shown their cards.

RACE 4

They all have to catch Gypsy Dreaming (#3) on the front end, and perhaps his expected pace advantage will be enough to put him in the winner's circle. I'm not so concerned about him stretching back out to 7 furlongs since he nearly got this distance against a decent field two back. I just wonder how long he can hold his current form since getting claimed since I thought he showed slight regression last time out, and I wonder if more is coming. I wasn't thrilled with the locally based alternatives, led by Celestial Glaze (#6), who never seems to win. So I'm instead looking at a couple of runners from Parx. Windsor Gold (#5) had some minor traffic two back and then took a slight step forward last time. He has prior races that would beat this field but seems to lack consistency. I have a little more confidence in the other Parx shipper Paradise Valley (#1). He looks a cut below these at first glance, but I think the speed figure for that recent Penn National race is too low. I also didn't love the trip he got two back when he was steadied at the start and then had some trouble navigating traffic towards the inside. He's another with some back class, and I like him getting the services of a more aggressive jockey this time.

RACE 5

Alma's Law (#2) and My Girl Aubree (#4) are the two logical options but neither one really excites me. The former has run decently against tougher company, but her best races have come over a mile and I'm not sure she has the natural speed to win going 6 furlongs. My Girl Aubree is a little more consistent, but she's also lacked development since the second start of her career. I took a long look at Call Me Jal (#8), who showed speed and faded in her first couple of starts. She drops in class, but I question her overall ability. Quell (#6) showed mild late interest in her turf debut and actually has more of a dirt pedigree. I just need to see a bit more talent before I trust her. I'll instead go with Fifteen Over (#1), who makes just the second dirt start of her career. She faced tougher company in her first two races in Kentucky before dropping into a pretty strong race for the level at Keeneland last time. She actually ran on pretty well after a 3-wide chasing trip, and now meets softer competition. John Servis is always dangerous shipping to NYRA, and I would expect this one to get a more aggressive ride here.

RACE 6

I can't possibly take another short price on Scythian (#5) after she ran so poorly as the chalk last time. She was mildly shuffled back into the far turn but didn't really have any major excuse. She's had some excuses along the way, but remains winless since her Miss Grillo win as a 2-year-old. Can't Fool Me (#1) ran best of those exiting the May 1 race at this level, making up ground into a moderate pace. She lacks any early speed whatsoever but did produce some of her best form off the layoff last time. In a race where I didn't have strong feelings about anyone, I'll try a price with Snowy Evening (#4). She didn't run as well as others in that May 1 race, but she was making her second start off a layoff returning just 8 days after her prior start. She probably needed both of those efforts, and should be set for a move forward in her third start back. She's competitive at this level on her best day, and is reunited with regular jockey Javier Castellano.

RACE 7

I had a tough time setting a morning line for this race because all of the main contenders have significant flaws. Tuscan Sky (#8) might be the most naturally talented horse in this field on his best day, but his connections have struggled to coax that top form out of him in recent starts. He does appear to working well here and he picks up Flavien Prat, which should attract some support. I just find him difficult to trust at a distance this short. Raise the Bar (#5) will also take money as he makes his second start since a trainer switch to Chad Brown. His reputation is primarily built on form from Texas and Oklahoma, and he didn't show much improvement in his first start for Chad Brown. The good news for him is that the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts that he could be alone in front this time, which obviously makes him dangerous. However, I do think there are a couple of rivals who could apply pressure early. One of those is T Kraft (#7), who won three races in a row over this track in early 2025. He subsequently got thrown into the deep end of the pool, trying Grade 1 company in the Woody Stephens last summer. He was hardly disgraced, beating over half the field home, though he didn't run quite as well in the Amsterdam subsequently. He received time off after that, and got in a useful prep on turf off the layoff last time. He's now returning to his favorite surface and is drawn well outside of other speed. My top pick is Over and Ollie (#6), who is clearly good enough to beat this field on his best day. The problem is that his best days have been few and far between, scattered among several dismal performances over the last year. His last victory did come over this course and distance last December, and he also in an impressive victory at this sprint distance last July at Saratoga. Notably, those were the only two races with Lasix that he actually completed during the last year, losing his rider at the start of another, and he gets to use that medication again this time. He's also had some excuses for the recent poor efforts, racing wide against a rail bias two back before trying a distance that is too far for him last time. I'm expecting him to rebound.

RACE 8

Urgency (#2) owns some of the best turf form in this field, but he's only raced at a mile on grass. Turning back is a question, but he has run even better than it looks in a couple of those prior grass starts. He had traffic issues when chasing home subsequent stakes winner Immortalised on Jan. 2, and then got a wide trip in February. He's a top contender, but you generally want to avoid taking short prices on turnbacks like this. I don't know what to make of Felonious (#9) switching back to turf. He didn't run that well in his only prior start on this surface. It seems like a move of desperation, and he's going to take money just because of Prat riding. In some ways, the horse to beat is Oligarch (#8), who arguably should have won when he was nearly 20-1 at this level last time. This horse had run deceptively well with a rough trip in his only prior turf start, and then finished well after getting held up in traffic on the turnback last time. He gets a rider upgrade to Javier Castellano, but will be a fraction of the price he was in the last start. My top pick is Traverse City (#5), who still has to prove he's good enough to win at this level. He struck me as a horse who was undone by the distance, not the turf, last time. He traveled well in his debut sprinting but came up empty when set down over the dirt, moving more like a turf horse. He's bred to be a turf sprinter, has the quick action of a turf sprinter, and now finally gets a chance to prove it in a turf sprint at a square price.