TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

After the withdrawal of White Smoke Rising, I scratch into the likely favored first time starter. Sea Strike (#6) sold for $650k last year following a blazing 20 2/5 workout. There is plenty of turf and synthetic in this pedigree, but Chad will unsurprisingly debut this horse on dirt after a string over eye-catching workouts down in Florida. He appears to possess serious speed and might prove too fast for these.

RACE 2

Horses going out for the powerful stables of Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown figure to attract the bulk of support in this allowance. Vassimo (#4) is the more high profile of the two runners from these stables, having competing through a series of graded stakes events last year. He wasn't particularly successful in any of those starts, and is now returning from a substantial layoff. He seemed like a horse that wanted to run two turns and beyond last year, so I have mixed feelings about his returning in a one-turn race. First Call Bob (#7) also has upside as a lightly raced 4-year-old. He won on debut down at Gulfstream despite not taking much money, looking like a horse that definitely wants to go long. His pedigree and massive frame make me wonder if he's really going to achieve his best form around one turn, and he failed to progress when he tried winners last time. That race got a fast speed figure, but the runbacks haven't flattered the form. I want to look elsewhere. Alan Turing (#3) seems like a viable alternative based on his last race, which he won at this distance with a solid 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He's moving up in class, but he appears to have found himself getting back into a one-turn dirt race. My top pick is Run Quiet Run Fast (#5), who hasn't had the easiest trips in his two local starts for Tom Morley. He had absolutely no chance given the circumstances on Feb. 6, since he was wide against a strong rail bias and also compromised by a very slow pace. Then last time he was clearly primed to run a better race, but he got locked in traffic early and was never able to get clear until it was far too late. The winner of that race also had some traffic issues, but this horse was never clear until they approached the wire. He did gallop out ahead of the winner past the wire, suggesting there was more in the tank. He figures to be a very fair price once again.

RACE 3

I know there are some questions about Pretty Boy Miah (#7) stretching out to a mile, but I get the sense this horse is pretty talented and he isn't catching the toughest field here. He was much the best breaking his maiden against open company last time, showing high speed from the start and drawing clear with authority. If he comes anywhere near that 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure, he's going to beat this field. Main rival Bold Love (#5) is the only horse who really comes close to the favorite from a speed figure standpoint, but I didn't love that he was unable to seal the deal at this distance last time after striking the front in upper stretch.

RACE 4

We'll see if this or any of the other turf races stay on the grass. If it does get run on turf, I had trouble looking past the two favorites after the expected scratch of Blinging It Back. Teddy's Rocket (#3) was the buzz of Saratoga prior to his debut last summer and he delivered, winning like a horse who would progress from the race. He didn't really get that opportunity to step forward in the Summer, since he drew a tough post position and was wide throughout. He's been off since then and doesn't show much of a worktab for his return, but he sure looked good in his most recent Apr. 18 drill in company with the older Carson's Run. I gave him the nod over Instability (#1), who still has something to prove as he steps up in class. He looked good on debut at Tampa, but did work out a very good trip.

RACE 5

Graywing (#1) got the job done last time at the $16k level and now drops in for $10k, so he figures to be awfully formidable. The form of that last race was flattered when runner-up Timaeus returned to beat a much tougher group in his next start. He looks like the main speed, but he does have to see out 7 furlongs, which has been a problem in the past. There aren't too many appealing alternatives. I trust Brew Pub (#3) to get this distance, but he is hard to take on the win end given his 5 for 70 career record. Therefore, I'll side with Sin Nombre (#9), who also doesn't win very frequently but hasn't had quite as many chances. It seems like all of the live Jesus Romero runners are ridden by Jose Lezcano, so I like that he gets back aboard. He got a wide trip last time, and given the ground loss he really didn't run any worse than Graywing. At least he'll be a better price.

RACE 6

This allowance optional claimer is one of the better betting races of the day. Bramito (#1) has been in great form since the claim by Steven Schauer. While he's technically dropping in class after winning at a more advanced level last time, he might be catching a more competitive field this time. A repeat of his last race will obviously make him tough. He has a little more tactical speed than Dreamlike (#9), who I need to downgrade after the scratch of two pace players. Contrary Thinking (#5) could be a polarizing horse in here, since some will be enticed by the class relief he gets after facing the best horses in the world when used as a rabbit for Sierra Leone. I wasn't his biggest fan prior to taking on that role, but I do acknowledge he may have a good trip coming to him after scratches. Another horse who benefits from scratches is Ridgewood Runner (#7), but I just wonder if he classes up with this group. My top pick is the other Chad Brown runner Playing Tricks (#8). It's not easy to step up from N1X to N2X allowance company, especially against a field that came up this deep. However, I did think this horse put in a superior effort last time despite winning by just a head. He was racing in heavy traffic from the quarter pole to the eighth pole, but quickened nicely when he finally found room. He's progressed from start to start and I get the sense we haven't yet seen the best he has to offer.

RACE 7

If this race stays on turf, I want to bet Fluid Situation (#10) making his first start off the Mike Maker claim. He appears to be working well at Churchill for this return from a brief freshening, and he's a horse who has always elevated his game over this Aqueduct turf course. Burhan (#8) seems like one who should benefit from the turnback in distance after Chad tried to make him go two turns at Gulfstream first time out. I wanted to try and beat John the Beer Man (#3), who ran well going 5 1/2 furlongs at Fair Grounds off the layoff, but it's no guarantee that form will transfer back to Aqueduct.

RACE 8

If this gets to stay on grass, Annexperience (#5) seems like the horse to beat as he returns from a layoff. He ran pretty well at this level last season and turning back to a flat mile should suit him. I just didn't think Mo Kreesa (#3) ran that much worse when they met on Nov. 1, and then got a silly trip that gave him no chance on Nov. 14. He's actually come to hand on dirt since then, and that's not even his preferred surface. I think he can build on his 3-year-old turf form as he returns picking up John Velazquez.

RACE 9

Hit the Post (#3) is likely to go favored here after stringing together some fast speed figures last summer into fall. However, now he's returning from a lengthy layoff, and he's doing so at Aqueduct. All of his best prior starts came at Saratoga where the Mel Giddings barn has the most success, or against weaker fields at Figer Lakes. I'm not sure that I trust him to bring his best form here, even as the likely main speed. I'll be interested to see if Trust Fund (#2) can attain more forward position in this spot after he didn't get the best ride last time. He broke very sharply but was taken in hand to rate off a slow pace. He was unable to finish with the two in the late stages but was hardly disgraced against a tougher field. Beary Funny (#1) didn't run well at this level last time, but he was catching a tough group in a race dominated by a longshot that put in a freakish performance. His prior form makes him a solid player here and I think he can rebound for the dangerous William Morey barn. My top pick is Elysian Meadows (#7), who exits that same race. I think some of the speed figures for that affair came back on the low side, but I don't care so much since this horse had a right to need the race off the layoff. He was outrun early but stayed on best of all late while making up ground into a relatively slow pace. I think 7 furlongs might be his best distance, and he has prior form from last year that could beat this field. Eric Cancel should be able to keep him a bit closer this time, especially if they're not going too quickly up front. One more horse I'll mention that I couldn't quite get to as a top pick but would use underneath is Rock the Weekend (#8). He's not in very good form right now, but he has moved way up on a sloppy sealed track in the past.

RACE 10

There is very little reliable turf form in this maiden claiming finale. Fraudster (#3) and Bashful Baby (#6) are the two fillies to beat, but I didn't think either ran that well last time out at Gulfstream. The former may appreciate getting to go slightly longer here and possesses better tactical speed, whereas Bashful Baby just can't get out of the gate. I wanted some surface switchers instead. Fairy Godmother (#2) ran better than it looks when she made her debut on turf last fall, getting a wide trip. I've also been waiting to see Beau Hill (#7) get a chance on grass all winter. She's by underrated turf influence Beau Liam out of a dam who produced 2 turf winners, including turf graded stakes winner Saffron Moon. She also gets a pretty significant rider upgrade to Jaime Rodriguez.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Chad Brown will probably win the opener with one of his two runners. Grayosh (#1) has the proven stakes form on U.S. turf but limited upside after she never really stepped forward during her 4-year-old season. Therefore I'll give the nod to Matilda (#2), who was electrifying when she won the German 2000 Guineas against males last May. She was subsequently sold and didn't run nearly as well for new connections in a French Group 1 last summer. Now she's with Chad Brown, for whom she's served as the work partner for Breeders' Cup winner Gezora this spring. If she runs to her works and prior, she'll beat Grayosh.

RACE 2

I have trouble trusting Grand Commander (#7) to repeat his last effort given his overall inconsistency, and he's moving up in class anyway. Though drawing outside probably does help his cause since he doesn't do well taking kickback. First Trumpet (#5) is arguably the horse to beat after he rushed up following a terrible start last time. Yet that was just a three-horse field, so I don't want to put much stock in the race generally. I'll instead go with Solo Empire (#1), who is actually getting class relief after facing tougher foes though the winter. He had no chance in a very tough $20k claimer that featured some dropdowns last time, and two back he was wide against the rail bias. I'm hoping Dalila Rivera just sends him to the lead as blinkers go back on.

RACE 3

Mr Skylight (#2) is a logical favorite as he drops in class off the claim for Linda Rice. This placement for a $20k tag might seem concerning, but Rice pulls off this move with success. She is 18 for 43 (42%, $2.20 ROI) with 50% dropdowns first off the claim on dirt over 5 years. His win last time was underwhelming, but he might not have to run that much better to beat this group. Master of Arms (#5) is his main rival, but I cashed on him last time when he was nearly 6-1 coming off some less than ideal trips. I don't need to take a shorter price on him now that his form is exposed again. I'll instead give one more chance to Factually Correct (#1). I know it looks like he's off form, but he's been facing tougher fields at the N2X allowance level. He actually ran a better race last time when he was outrun to the lead by the fleet What's Up Bro and still battled on for third behind a freakish performance from the winner. He owns some of the best TimeformUS Speed Figures in this field, and I'm hoping the class relief allows him to convert those numbers into a winning result. Ruben Silvera just has to be aggressive from the rail.

RACE 4

I'm not trying to beat Spirit of St Louis (#9). This is a substantial drop in class but a logical one since this horse needs a bit of a confidence boost. NYRA did his connections the favor of expanding the race conditions to allow for horses of any class to compete for this condition provided that they're coming off a layoff or haven't produced recent winning results. Even though he doesn't appear to be as sharp as he was at this time last year, he's still probably better than the rivals he meets here. That's not to say that there aren't other talented horses in this race, as both Smooth Breeze (#1) and Sounds Like a Plan (#6) have a right to step forward as 4-year-olds. The former got in a couple of starts at Gulfstream, though the latter might be the more naturally talented horse. If this race were a mile, I might have picked Sounds Like a Plan, but getting him to hold on at this distance off the layoff might be a tough ask with Spirit of St Louis running at him late.

RACE 5

This race would actually become much less competitive if one or two of the also eligibles drew in, since both Authentic Legend (#11) and Melody Man (#13) possess superior recent turf form to all of the horses inside of them. Between them, I would prefer Authentic Legend, who got a terrible trip when stuck wide every step of the way last time out at Gulfstream. Among those already in the main body of the race, I didn't trust In the Dark (#4). He has the best turf form from last year, but he has been steadily declining in recent starts, and I don't think he really wants to go two turns anyway. To me, he's a bet against. Plaza Del Sol (#7) finished well on debut at Fair Grounds but wasn't facing the strongest field that day and was making up ground into a pretty slow final quarter mile. He was entered for a $35,000 tag at Laurel last week, which doesn't inspire confidence. I wish there was some turf pedigree for Swiss Army Knife (#6), who has faced better horses on the dirt. His action makes me think he might take to grass, but I wish there was even the smallest signal of turf inclination in his breeding. The first time turf runner that I want to bet is Mr R T (#3). This horse goes out for connections that aren't known for winning turf races, but I have been waiting to see this horse get on the grass since he first made his debut last summer. He met some tougher rivals in a couple of maiden special weight races that bookend his career, but he actually showed some ability in a pair of maiden claiming races this winter. Both of those top efforts came with apprentice Dalila Rivera aboard, who regains the mount here. His pedigree is strongly geared towards turf, by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Dubawi mare, and he has the high-stepping action of a grass horse.

RACE 6

I'm generally against horses like Factory Settling (#5), who have gone favored in three starts for Chad Brown and remain maidens. She did have a legitimate excuse last time when she was never inside over a rail-biased course. However, it's still unclear if she's really stepped forward from her 2-year-old season, and she's unlikely to offer any value here. Her main rivals appear to be first time starters, none of which are terribly compelling. Mark Casse's New York Special (#2) figures to take the most money of those, but she's a half-sister to turf sprinter Casa Creed by dirt route sire Curlin. It seems like even Casse doesn't quite know what to do with that pedigree, drilling her extensively on turf before ultimately entering her on dirt. I prefer two lightly experienced runners drawn outside. One of those is Neri (#8), who got a very wide trip on debut last fall and then regressed stretching out 14 days later. She's better than that, and can progress here if she's ready off the layoff. My top pick is Big Jackie (#7), who should improve greatly from her debut experience. She was slow into stride and then was climbing greenly at the back of the pack. She didn't have much punch on the far turn but did stay on well through the last furlong like a horse who has more ability than her result suggests. I'm expecting her to show more speed this time with blinkers going on.

RACE 7

The pace of this race depends heavily on whether Longshoreman (#2) runs here or the stakes on Saturday. This colt showed a ton of speed in the Futurity last year, setting some blazing early splits despite not even breaking that well. He'll be tough if he's progressed since last year, but he is facing a tough field of older horses off the layoff. Cuando (#9) has more experience at in these conditions and should be breathing down his neck early. Neither he nor morning line favorite Cyclonite (#5) are winning types, but both have proven form at this class level. I slightly prefer the recency of Cyclonite, but you have to be a little concerned with his tendency to hang late in this races. My top pick is Flat to Da Mat (#7), but I will readily acknowledge that he needs the speed to stay in this race as a confirmed closer. He has had limited turf sprint opportunities, but he has run well under when given the chance. His last turf sprint effort over this course last September was an underrated effort since that was a slow-paced affair dominated up front. He has a right to do better as a newly turned 4-year-old.

RACE 8

Raynam Hall (#9) is arguably the horse to beat as she gets back on turf. This filly displayed talent when she finally got into some turf routes during her 2-year-old season, and she may be too good for these if she's progressed at all since then. I don't love the fact that Rudy Rodriguez risked her for a tag on dirt last time, since she ran well enough last year to hold out for a New York-bred maiden special weight. Yet it's not like this is that much of a drop. I generally didn't want the older horses who have already had chances at this level, though I do respect the fact that On a Summer Day (#2) ran well fresh off a similar layoff last year. She drew much better than the other main contenders. I was just intrigued by a couple of other 3-year-olds. Rocket Robin (#11) got a wide trip in her lone turf route attempt last year, and can do better as she returns from a layoff. I imagine she'll show more speed with blinkers, especially drawing outside. Yet the lightly raced 3-year-old I really want to bet is Valiant Diva (#12), who ran better than it looks in both starts last year while just looking very green. She was compromised by a slow pace on debut, and then had some traffic that wasn't noted in the chart comments last time, getting steadied at the quarter pole just as she was launching a rally. She returns with Lasix at a more realistic level, and I don't mind the post position too much since she figures to take back and launch one run. I'm expecting a better result this time if she's matured, and the price should be fair. Tom Morley is 4 for 22 (18%, $5.91 ROI) off 105 to 210 day layoffs in turf routes over 5 years.