TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

There's little point in analyzing these races ahead of time without knowing if the rail bias that has persisted for the last week will still have a strong hold on Friday. If the inside is the place to be, this race will probably come down to trips. Flat On (#1) is a standout based on his prior form, but he has been steadily tailing off for Linda Rice. If he is the inside speed it may not matter, but both Solo Empire (#3) and Shamateur (#4) at times have shown the speed to get ahead of him early. The former at least has some dirt form going this distance and should be a fair price, so I'll give him the slight nod.

RACE 2

Higher Force (#4) should play out as the inside speed here until a typically aggressive Ruben Silvera. She's coming off a minor layoff, but this freshening may have worked in her favor since she had been consistently campaigned without a break going back to her career debut. She's proven at this distance and really isn't facing a much tougher group than the one she beat last time. Main rival Snide (#5) is the other speed, but she's drawn outside her main rival and that could be the difference.

RACE 3

Bam's Bliss Kiss (#2) is supposed to be awfully tough to catch if we still have a rail bias, since she's the inside speed and is in great form. I am a little concerned about her ability to maintain that form for new connections, especially since she improved so much on her prior NYRA efforts in some recent starts for a low-profile barn. Romantic Dancer (#3) should sit a decent stalking trip in behind as she returns on short rest. She was mildly against a rail bias when she ran here on Feb. 5, and has been pretty consistent for Rick Dutrow. Linda Rice sends out a pair including Save Us Melania (#5), who could face a tall order if she's unable to make the lead from an outside post. Her last race was very disappointing, but she might have needed it off a layoff. I find her difficult to trust. The other Linda Rice runner is a bit more intriguing. Curlin's Magic (#6) obviously needs a pace setup, but Kendrick Carmouche has ridden this track well recently and should attempt a rail rally. She had shown some decent form in Kentucky, and it's interesting that Linda Rice is moving her up in class so dramatically in her first NYRA start. It's not as if she's afraid to drop these Kentucky acquisitions first off the claim.

RACE 4

Devils Arrow (#2) looks like the inside speed and owns the best overall form. I know she's done most of her racing at Parx, but she's coming in for dangerous connections and actually held her own against a decent rival last time. The others just didn't do enough for me. Last Glory (#4) is getting minor class relief and should be charging late, but her rider didn't seem too aware of the bias on Thursday.

RACE 5

Take your pick between two flawed Linda Rice favorites. Noguchi (#3) has more tactical speed, but Come to Papa (#7)possesses the better form. Kendrick Carmouche figures to attempt to get him over to the inside at some point. If he runs any semblance of his last race he figures to finally break through in his 20th career start.

RACE 6

My First Love (#3) was against a bias on Jan. 11 when she was glued to the rail throughout. I don't think that particular day featured quite as strong a dead rail as the surrounding days, but it still wasn't ideal to spend all that time inside. Her prior form makes him a strong contender here, and she's claimed back by Rob Atras, who has had success with her in the past. Echo in Eternity (#8) is a candidate to bounce back after catching a wet track that she doesn't care for last time. However, her outside post does her no favors if the track is still tilted towards the inside. If that's the case, Problematica (#1) has to be upgraded since she should play out as the controlling speed.

RACE 7

If the rail bias that we have observed over the last week persists into Friday, Vibrant Express (#1) obviously becomes a serious threat to wire this field. He's obviously in strong form right now, having won three in a row. However, he's beaten up on softer company and has done so with very favorable trips. I prefer the proven class of some others. That includes Sheriff Bianco (#3), who is probably the one to beat as he drops out of a series of tougher spots for Linda Rice. His form has tailed off, but it's not as if he ran that badly in his last couple of starts considering the competition. I will be interested to see if he makes it past scratch time, since Rice has entered this horse at this level at least a couple times in the last few months and scratched him each time. If he runs here, he's obviously a win candidate. Beary Funny (#2) regressed when last seen at this level, but that race was dominated towards the front end and he could never get involved. His prior form puts him squarely in the mix. The horse I want to bet is Factually Correct (#9). He might be fast enough to make the lead over Vibrant Express if Luis Rivera, Jr. really sends him aggressively from this outside post. He actually broke on top last time but Rivera wasn't intent on making the lead over some quick rivals to his inside, and he settled into a wide, stalking trip. That was never going to work on Dec. 10, another day that featured a rail bias. He's disappointed recently, but had claims voided by the vet in each of those starts, so perhaps he wasn't at this best either time. He now returns from another brief freshening, and can upset this field if he gets back to the form that he displayed for these connections at Saratoga last summer.

RACE 8

I hesitate to give anyone a strong endorsement in this finale. Givememythememusic (#4) is a class standout, but it seems like a major negative that he's dropping in for $17,500 after one start back off the layoff. He may play out as the speed with blinkers going on, but he's not the kind of short price I want to bet. Come Full Circle (#7) was wide against a rail bias last time, but that might be the case again here. He did get a strong pace to close into that day, and he will likely encounter the opposite scenario this time. I like the recent form of Grand Commander (#5), though I don't love the slight turnback in distance for a hrose who I think wants more ground. He also seems to do his best running outside of horses, and that might not be the right kind of trip over this track.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I initially had thought that Sea Vista (#6) would be tough to beat in this maiden opener. He's kept pretty strong company in his prior dirt races, and looks formidable when you ignore the synthetic tries. In truth, he didn't even run as badly as it looks at Turfway last time after encountering stretch traffic. I just worry that he might get the wrong trip here if the track is playing as it has been for the last several racing days. Manny Franco is a top rider, but rarely adapts to biases. I'll instead take a shot with the inside speed of Poppy's Ticket (#2). This New York-bred has some things to prove at this level, but the race didn't come up that strong for a maiden special weight. He wanted no part of a mile two back, and ran well last time despite getting pushed down to the dead rail late. Reylu Gutierrez figures to be aggressive. The wild card for me is Pop Goes the Wiz (#1), who showed some potential on debut. He didn't get away that well and then had to alter course a couple of times when rallying in the lane. It was an educational experience, and he figures to do better here if he can handle the class hike.

RACE 2

If the track is playing as it was yesterday, that probably makes Social Hour (#1) dangerous as a threat to wire the field. I don't love his declining form and was pretty disappointed in his last race when he was no match for today's rival Pair of Socks (#4). That Linda Rice trainee is the horse to beat, and he figures to work out a good trip sitting just in behind the speeds. I prefer Uncle William (#6), who makes his return from a layoff and first start off a trainer switch to Chad Summers. It looks like this horse was privately acquired by the dangerous JKX Racing outfit. The obvious negatives are that he's leaving David Jacobson and coming off a layoff which followed a pair of vet scratches. I'm hoping he's just a new horse since exiting his original low percentage barn.

RACE 3

Current Climate (#1) figures to attract support first off the claim for Linda Rice, but I have mixed feelings about this 8-year-old mare. I've been familiar with her handicapping some races in Kentucky, and I've always felt that she's slightly better on synthetic than dirt. Her recent form would appear to suggest otherwise, but it's also been steadily declining over the last year. Next On Stage (#3) is another runner with back class, but she also exits a string of disappointing efforts. I also have some reservations about her turning all the way back to 6 furlongs. I didn't love that Jan. 18 race at this level when it was originally run, but I'm nevertheless taking the two horses from it. Ready for Trouble (#4) hung in the late stages after challenging in upper stretch with a wide trip. I like her prior form, and perhaps she's better on a fast track. My top pick is Shadyside (#5), who finished just behind that rival last time with an even wider trip. She was literally hung 4 to 5-wide all the way around the far turn, and still finished decently despite the ground loss. She ran deceptively well off the layoff two back and may be ready for a step forward in her third start of this campaign. She possesses more tactical speed than he recent form might suggest.

RACE 4

The short prices in this conditioned claimer do little for me. Scat Tu Tap (#1) drew well inside, but he doesn't have any early speed and he's coming off a performance from last week in which he took advantage of the rail bias. Kavanaugh (#6) owns the best overall form, but he drew the worst post position and still has to prove that he can get this distance. Indy Rags (#4) is the up and comer among then, moving up off a win last time. He got a very good trip that day, but at least he wants every bit of 9 furlongs. I'm more intrigued by First Trumpet (#5) at a price. His general inconsistency makes him tough to trust, but he has run some of his best races when able to make the early lead. He figures to get to the front here with so little speed drawn inside of him, and he's getting subtle class relief after facing tougher open claiming fields two and three back.

RACE 5

I have little to say about this race. I suppose I could have put Malthea (#1) on top, but I didn't love the way she blew a clear lead in the stretch last time. The firster who won that race may turn out to be pretty good, but she still has never run a particularly fast race. Kaz Farm Girl (#6) might be the speed, but she's question mark at this distance. I'll guess with firster Ganderella (#3), whose name is likely inspired by these connections' top runner Gander from a couple of decades ago. They paid a good chunk of money for this pedigree, and she's certainly bred to get the distance. That's hardly a strong endorsement, but I had no clever ideas here.

RACE 6

Perhaps the track will just carry Power of Women (#3) home, but I have some reservations about her. While Jan. 11 was part of that one-week dead rail period, that day produced some results that didn't fit the trend so I don't think the bias can be used as a blanket excuse. She's failed to progress from her debut where she took significant money, and she's just going to get hammered again as she races first off the claim for these connections. Quinns Silent Roar (#8) was outside last time, but I'm not sure how much of an advantage that was. Being drawn outside of that foe here might be detrimental, but I still prefer her overall form. The only other horse I want to use is a firster. John Ortiz is 25 for 176 (14%, $2.58 ROI) with first time starters on dirt over 5 years. That's enough for me to use Tristar Fury (#2), another daughter of Hard Spun. She figures to work out a good ground-saving trip under the bias-savvy Kendrick Carmouche.

RACE 7

I really don't have a strong argument against Top Player (#2) here. The drop is mildly concerning, but he just isn't good enough to win New York-bred allowance races, and there really aren't that many spots to run him in between class levels. He has the speed to control this up front, and even his weaker efforts might be good enough to beat this group.

RACE 8

Otherpeoplesmoney (#1) moves up in class off a win going this distance. It is fair to wonder where that effort came from since it's so much better than her prior form, but she clearly is aided by added ground. Capital Gal (#3) hasn't won in while, but may play out as the inside speed and that makes her dangerous. Tower Twenty Two (#6) has never gone this far before, but she did handle two turns on the dirt at Parx two back. She's coming back off one week's rest, but she was closing well when never inside over a rail-biased track last time. I wish Pocket Queens (#7) had drawn a better post position since I do think she deserves another chance going this distance. She was sent to the sidelines following her prior 9-furlong attempt when she just didn't look like herself. She showed some talent as a young 3-year-old and may be too good for these if she's matured at all. Jaime Rodriguez has generally ridden this rail bias pretty well over the last week, so perhaps he can work his way inside at some point.

RACE 9

Hot Gossip (#8) will obviously be a handful if this maiden optional claimer if she runs as well as she did in her New York debut last time out. She was in for the $75k tag that day and again is risked for the claiming price here, which is hardly a negative given that she was claimed for $50k by these connections back in November. The chief concern for her is the slight cutback in distance to 7 furlongs, since she has been targeted at routes since the second start of her career and seemed to blossom over those longer distances. She's the one to beat, but I didn't want to just default to a short price on her now that her form is totally exposed. Kay Road (#4) should find this 7-furlong distance to her liking after facing with a wide trip going a mile two back. She rebounded at a shorter trip last time, earning a speed figure that puts her within range of the favorite. Beau Hill (#9) finished another 10 lengths back in fifth in that same Jan. 23 race, but she might have some upside in the second start of her career. She got off slowly and launched a decent rally on the far turn before flattening out late. I just prefer another first time starter as my top pick. Celestial Body (#5) launched her career in a New York-bred maiden special weight event last December. She got dismissed at 100-1 by the bettors, and certainly outran those odds to get up for fourth. However, she ran even better than that finish suggests. The track was playing to speed on Dec. 13, so she deserves some credit for passing rivals in the lane. She also had to overcome adversity in the first half of the race, getting away a step slowly and then getting shuffled out of position down the backstretch when trying to advance between horses. She's been given time to develop since then, and I'm expecting a better performance as she returns for her second start.