TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I don't fully trust Big Hat Willie (#3), who seems like an all-or-nothing type. When he's good, he's probably too strong for this field to handle, but when he's bad, he's barely a factor. This is probably the right class level for him to bounce back, but I still didn't want to take a short price on him. I prefer main rival Beary Funny (#4), who is finally getting class relief that he needs. He's exiting some tough fields at the N2X state-bred level, and he was also done no favors by a very wide trip last time. He picks up Manny Franco and should get some pace to close into with multiple speeds signed on. Pace is a concern for Clancy Fancy (#5), but this horse has been rounding back into form since the acquisition by Ilkay Kantarmaci. I'll be using him as well.

RACE 2

I found this allowance optional claimer to be nearly inscrutable despite it featuring such a small field. I'll give the slight edge to Prince of Broadway (#6), who seems to be realistically placed in her return. Some may take it as a negative that she's offered up for the $100k tag, but how much can she really be worth at this point? I'm sure the connections would be thrilled if she got claimed even after a victory here. She stepped forward nicely in her second start last year, and has been drilling every 7 days like clockwork for this return. Law School (#1) seems most dangerous of the 4 shippers that challenge her, since she's supposed to appreciate turning back in distance after not really seeing out the two turns in some recent starts. I just wonder if she peaked over the winter. The horse I really don't want is Niche (#2), who got away with a slow pace at Laurel last time and has to prove to me that she can handle a more competitive scenario.

RACE 3

Linda Rice will probably win this race with one of her two starts, but neither one thrills me. I have a little more confidence in Will of a Womanne (#8), who has run several dirt races that should beat a field like this. I don't love that she ran so poorly when stepped up in class last time, but she's dropping down to a much softer level here. Chardonnay Derby (#5) was all-out to beat a very weak field last time, so I'm not as high on her chances. If there's an interesting longshot in this field, perhaps it's Dat Dares Right (#4), who has been rounding back into form since returning from a layoff this spring. She ran races on this circuit last year that give her a big chance in this spot. While her form tailed off, she obviously needed that return from the layoff when in for a waiver. She progressed last time despite breaking slowly, getting rushed up to lead early, and then steadying out late. She figures to take another step forward here and should be a fair price due to connections.

RACE 4

I acknowledge that Sadie Earp (#1) could be dangerous returning from a layoff for Wesley Ward. She showed some promise during her 2-year-old season before just failing to see out the distance when they stretched her out last time. If she builds on that early form, she's a major player in this field. However, she does have to improve significantly coming off this layoff, and she's probably going to get bet as if that's a given primarily due to her conditioner. Between the two likely favorite, Soloshot (#4) seems like a more reliable option after she ran a race last month that makes her competitive against this field. She is stepping up in class, but obviously improved first off the claim for Amelia Green. I actually prefer the other Amelia Green runner at a bigger price. Shore War (#5) had hinted at turf sprint ability early in her career for different connections, but she could never build consistent form due to layoffs or poor trips. She was acquired by new ownership last fall and turned over to Amelia Green, who appears to have turned her form around. She got very little pace to close into when she returned to turf sprinting last month, and she put in a strong finish to get up for third behind a pair of talented Welsey Ward runners. I don't think this field is quite as tough as that one, and she figures to outrun her odds against with a similar effort. The wild card that I want to include somewhere is Coach Albert Lady (#2). It's hard to know what to expect from this dark horse as she makes her first start outside of Puerto Rico. However, she did show some talent down there, and training video I've seen of her at Keeneland suggests that she has ability. Her pedigree also indicates that sprinting on turf may be right up her alley, so this placement intrigues me as she ships in to New York. I'm primarily using her with top pick Shore War.

RACE 5

I have nothing clever to say about this race. I guessed that Swiss Army Knife (#8) would find this level to his liking after he looked totally overmatched against tougher dirt fields early in his career. I just didn't see enough in the recent form of main rivals Private Flight (#3) or Sounds Like Fun (#2) to prefer them.

RACE 6

I'm not sure what to do with Prove Worthy (#4), who showed absolutely nothing in his return from a layoff last time. The fact that he was in for a waiver probably signals that he needed the race, but this subsequent drop in for a $10k tag hardly inspires confidence that he's going to move forward. High Tide (#1) is another going back in for a tag after a couple of performances where he was in for the waiver. In both starts he this year he traveled well and failed to finish, and I'm wondering if this 9-year-old has just seen better days. I wanted horses who could attain more forward position. One of those is Brave Bear (#3), who lacked speed last time but also was under no urging to go forward. That was probably due to the fact that Fernando Abreu trained the winner, who was also a speed. Brave Bear needs to be involved to have any chance, and he figures to get a more aggressive ride here as he drops in class again. My top pick is Screaming Uncle (#8), who also drops down from the $16k level. He's stretching out in distance, and he's never proven that he can get a mile. Yet he's bred to go this far, and runs his sprint races like a horse who might appreciate the slower, steadier pace of a route race. He's drawn well outside of all the other speed and gets an aggressive rider aboard. His recent form isn't that bad, and he should be a fair price.

RACE 7

Peyton (#3) seems like the most solid option in this maiden claimer after he ran a respectable race on debut. The only problem is that he was 53-1 that day, and this time he's going to be the favorite picking up Manny Franco. Those types usually aren't for me, but I do acknowledge he does appear to be the most likely winner. If looking beyond this horse, you're doing some guesswork, since the remaining options with turf sprint form aren't terribly compelling. I would look to a couple of first time turfers. The one with the best pedigree is Calvary Hill (#2), by good turf sprint sire Freud and a full-brother to turf stakes winner Orange Freeze. He's done little running in prior starts, but the surface switch could really help. I have a little more confidence in the ability of my top pick Beau Cheval (#6). His dam placed twice on turf without winning, and her best foal also ran its career top race on grass despite not winning. Beau Liam has only gotten two turf winners so far, but both won sprints. This horse has been entered for grass twice in a row, and watching him run, he has the distinct action of a turf horse. Javier Castellano has been riding the grass well lately, and I think this horse is pretty live making the surface switch.

RACE 8

Night Jasmine (#9) was somewhat unlucky last time when she broke from the outside post in an 11-horse field. Dylan Davis showed no intention to go forward early and she got hung mostly 3-wide on the turns, got steadied at the three-eighths pole, and still finished strongly for third. If she runs as well here, she can obviously win. However, she did unfortunately draw outside again. Main rival Athena's Fury (#3) has a much better post, but she has to deal with a lengthy layoff. She finished fourth against a pretty good field on debut, but didn't do that much running in the race, just picking up pieces late. The drop in for a tag off the layoff isn't a huge vote of confidence. I'll give one more chance to Valiant Diva (#2). I thought this filly was a work in progress last year, and she ran like a horse who needed a start off the layoff last time. I like that Tom Morley is adding blinkers, since she appears to need some help putting in a full effort.

RACE 9

This is a competitive race with many options to consider, but I feel pretty strongly that Concorde Spirit (#4) is the horse to beat. Some may hold his loss as the favorite last time against him, but remember that this horse despises a wet track. The fact that he ran as well as he did over a surface that he appears to detest, speaks to him being in top form. He's been off for a couple of months since then, but he probably will benefit from a break after racing 17 times in 2025. He has been working as if there was no issue, with consistent drills dating back to late March. I like him turning back to a one-turn mile here, and if he maintains the form we off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez, I think he's going to win. I'm most scared of Three B's (#7), who should appreciate getting back out to a mile. It's pretty clear at this point that longer is better for him, and he should also like returning to a fast track after never seeming to take hold of the slop last time. Other options like Ez Roll (#5) and Lotsa Trouble (#6) are in solid form right now, but their lack of early speed could be an issue in a race that doesn’t feature much pace.

RACE 10

This is another highly competitive allowance race where you can build cases for plenty of horses. Wit Storm (#1) is probably the horse to beat after taking to turf so well at Gulfstream when he broke his maiden. He has to translate that form to 6 furlongs, but he drew well and still has upside. I'm not against him, especially since he possesses the tactical speed to work out a good trip. There isn't a ton of pace in this race, but I'm not sure that I think likely speed Burning Bridges (#6) is good enough to win if others show up with their top efforts. The lack of pace is a concern for horses like Lawyer Mason (#2) and Sunday Boy (#7), both runners that interest me a bit. Lawyer Mason had to weave his way through traffic coming off the layoff last time, but closed well into a moderate pace. However, I do think this spot is tougher. Sunday Boy ran better than it looks in a pair of turf races last year, and is intriguing getting back on this surface. He just really needs a setup. My top pick is Stormy Birthday (#9). I know this horse doesn't appear to have as much upside as others, but he is returning for his first start as a 4-year-old, which is often when we see horses attain their best form. He put in nothing but strong turf sprint efforts in the second half of last season, and he has the tactical speed to work out the right trip with Javier Castellano climbing back aboard. The layoff is an unknown, but Robert Ribaudo's horses have been somewhat live lately.

RACE 11

I don't have a major knock against Sleep Walking (#8), who will be tough to deny if he runs as well as he did on debut. He hopped at the start and was behind the eight ball early in that race before making steady progress to get up for third behind a couple of established runners. This spot probably didn't come up that tough, and any progression could put him in the winner's circle. Leave Me (#3) showed promised on debut last year for Horacio De Paz before taking steps backwards, but he drew a tough post in his second start and then hated dirt. He can get back on track here off the layoff. My top pick is Ohonte's Own (#10), who makes his second career start for Tom Morley. This barn tends to get them to improve through racing, and this horse had a subtle tough trip on debut. He lost position on the second turn and got gradually pushed wider and wider approaching the stretch before showing some determination to rally into third. I suspect he's better than he looks on paper, and he figures to be a fair price.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

New York Scrappy (#2) looks like the controlling speed here, but I just don’t trust him. He's had things his own way before and just fails to hang on, especially over dry tracks. Egyptian (#1) put in a decent effort last time and may appreciate getting back on fast going. He just figures to be overbet with Prat aboard. I'm giving Come Full Circle (#6)one more chance. I know he looks pace compromised here, but drawing outside should help him, and I imagine Manny Franco will have more involved early. He had a pretty tough trip two back, and he may not have loved the wet going last time.

RACE 2

In a totally paceless race, you can generally trust Flavien Prat to put his mounts in the right spot. That figures to be the case with George Briggs (#2), who looks like the best horse on paper anyway. He's one of these Peter Brant runners that has recently been transferred to Miguel Clement, but I'm not overly concerned about the switch. Iron Max (#4) has ability but tends to put himself behind the eight ball from the start. Cable Ready (#5) has the speed to get involved, but the favorite might just be a better horse.

RACE 3

The favorites did little for me in this maiden claimer. I suppose Up for an Oscar (#7) is the horse to beat because he's kept better company, but what am I supposed to like about his recent efforts? He was compromised by a slow pace last time, but I would have liked to see him at least show some signs of run at any point. He'll be bet again with Flavien Prat up, and I don't think he has to win. Fateful Lightning (#3) is similarly hard to trust. He seemed to improve switch the switch to dirt, and he just tends to be slow and one-paced in his turf races, which isn't usually a recipe for success. I want to go with a new face and Joy Division (#6) seems like fits the bill. He didn't have major excuses in that lone start last year, and failed to show much Heart and Soul as he backed up through the pack. Yet with time to mature since the debut, I believe he can come Closer to experiencing the Unknown Pleasures of victory.

RACE 4

Brzina (#4) is obviously the horse to beat given her overall consistency and proven form at this level. She isn't catching as tough a field as the one she faced for a slightly lower claiming tag last time. Note that the last race was also an open claimer whereas this is a condoned races for horses who haven't won in a year. If she puts forth her typical good effort, she's likely to win at a short price. The only alternative that really interests me is Shadyside (#5), who makes her first start off the claim for Michael Dubb and Rob Atras. She got a pretty strange trip last time, as she was forward early and then quickly dropped back through the back down the backstretch, never factoring late. I don't think she really wants to go a mile anyway, and now she's turning back to a more appropriate distance and picking up Kendrick Carmouche, who has ridden her to both prior victories.

RACE 5

I'm Mo Joke (#2) could go favored in this highly competitive allowance optional claimer as she ships in to New York for trainer Joe Sharp. Her turf sprint form is strong, and she's coming off some solid recent efforts in Louisiana and Kentucky. I'm just a little concerned about her lack of early speed in a race that doesn't appear to feature an abundance of early pace. Without Cause (#3) has a couple of speed figures at this distance on turf that stack up quite well against this field, but both of those were races at Woodbine, and she hasn't run quite as well at other venues. She also got away with a very slow pace when she just missed last July, and she's only managed one start since then. I thought she could be a slight underlay with Flavien Prat getting aboard. I want to bet Di's Surprise (#5), who gets back to sprinting on turf for the first time since her 3-year-old season back in 2024. She showed form that suggested that she had found her niche as a turf sprinter back then, so it's strange that none of her connections have tried to get her back into a turf sprint ever since. She did get back into decent form for this barn early last year before going to the sidelines. It seems like there's some intention here as she finally turns back on turf, shipping in to run in a protected spot in New York with the capable apprentice Yedsit Hazlewood also making the trip. She also could play out as the controlling speed.

RACE 6

It's hard to even know where to begin in this inscrutable maiden claimer on turf. I made Manor Park (#5) the morning line favorite on a total guess as he debuts for Miguel Clement, who is certainly capable with these types. I don't love Improbable as a debut or turf influence, but the dam was a stakes winner on grass. Dreams of Rome (#3) might have the best turf pedigree in the race. While Tacitus is unproven as a grass sire, the dam was a 4-time turf winner and she has produced 4 turf winners as foals. Among those with prior turf form, Vitalize (#9) owns some of the best races, but his form really tailed off in the last couple of starts. Perhaps he needed that return on dirt last time, but he's a little tough to trust. My top pick is Twenty One Red (#10). This horse showed some turf ability during his 2-year-old season, but all of those races were sprints. Then he got stretched out on the dirt, and ran his best dirt races going 7 furlongs and beyond. So why not put those two strengths together and try routing on the turf? He has the tactical speed to get forward here, and that may be all that's needed a race lacking much pace or form.

RACE 7

Perhaps I'm being too dismissive of The Obliterator (#3), who has steadily improved since getting claimed back by Rick Dutrow. I just haven't seen him do that much running in recent starts despite getting respectable speed figures. He's getting class relief in theory as he drops down but is stepping up against older horses for the first time. Favorite Day (#7) might be the horse to beat based on that route race from Fair Grounds in February, but the recent form isn't quite as strong. I can say similar about Run Quiet Run Fast (#9), who I thought was a little unlucky not to attain a better placing when stuck in traffic on Mar. 21 against a tougher group. However, he couldn't have been worse last time. Flash of Chaos (#5) looked great finally breaking his maiden last time at Keeneland and is an interesting new face as he comes to New York and steps up in class. My top pick is Thirteen G's (#6). I find it interesting that Linda Rice is moving this horse up in class despite disappointing recent form since the claim. He has had some excuses, and I have been waiting for Linda to stretch him out in distance. His early dirt route effort is better than it looks, and his pedigree and stride length suggest that longer distances should suit him.

RACE 8

Garden of Grace (#1) is the horse to beat as she finally gets back on turf. She should have won her last turf race when she got a terrible trip and ride, steadied to last in the early stages before closing belatedly for third. She's since run respectably on dirt, but she's a better turf horse, and now gets back to her preferred surface. Saint Margaret (#5) has upside in her second start off a layoff as a 3-year-old. She had a moment of traffic in mid-stretch last time, but I didn't think it cost her too much. The race came up reasonably fast for the level and she's dangerous right back. I just slightly prefer Aperitif (#4) out of that race. She was uncharacteristically forward early, pushing the pace before tiring. She probably needed that return from the layoff, and figures to get back to her preferred stalking tactics now that she gets a rider switch to Jaime Rodriguez.