TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I don’t have much insight into the first time starters here, but I'm generally willing to be mildly skeptical of horses who take so long to debut during their two-year-old seasons. There is only one filly with experience in this field, and I think she deserves another chance. Smart Sugar (#6) obviously didn’t show much in her debut routing on turf. She just looked like a horse who wasn't focused on her task that day. She wasn't traveling well on the far turn and basically got eased in the late stages. She actually has more of a sprint pedigree overall, and she trained decently on dirt this summer at Saratoga. It's good for a horse who was a little green on debut to draw outside, and I think we're going to see a better effort here. We'll see how much better she has to run against a field of unknowns.

Fair Value:
#6 SMART SUGAR, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 5

I had initially been hoping that Ellesmere Island would draw into this race from the AE list, but she failed to get in. That leaves the other Chad Brown trainee Investment Process (#1) as the horse to beat. She didn't show much in her debut at Gulfstream almost two years ago, but she clearly improved when she returned last month at Monmouth. I don't think that was the toughest field, but I did like the way she lengthened her stride through the lane to lunge at the winner late. She got keen in the early stages of that race, and has to settle better if she's to be successful against this field. She drew well with Flavien Prat, but that's also going to ensure that she's overbet. I'm not thrilled with many of the more experienced options in this field. My Sherrona (#4) has had a couple of chances on turf and she ran reasonably well both times, fading to second and third after setting the pace. However, she had circumstances in her favor both times, and I'm not convinced that she gets better stretching out to 1 3/16 miles. Stand the Rain (#12) is mildly interesting getting on turf for the first time at a big price. She doesn't have any dam's side pedigree, but Liam's Map is a solid influence. My top pick is Big Magic (#9). This filly ran like a horse who needed her debut back in the spring. She was never inside in a race dominated by horses who rode the rail, and understandably tired late. She really stepped forward when she returned from a layoff last month. John Velazquez didn't seem interested in going to the lead that day, but she did rate well in the pocket. Velazquez elected to stay inside in upper stretch, and she ran out of room inside the eighth pole before belatedly angling into the clear. She finished up like a horse who would appreciate the added ground she gets today. I also wouldn't be surprised to see handled more assertively in the early stages now that she's second off a layoff.

Fair Value:
#9 BIG MAGIC, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6

Sweet Little Lila (#8) is the filly to beat after running well in all three of her prior races. She caught a very tough maiden field on debut at Saratoga, and has subsequently hit the board in her two most recent starts. She arguably didn't get the best trip two back when she had to wait in traffic before angling out in upper stretch. Then last time her connections took a shot against winners in the Selima and she ran well for third despite proving no match for impressive winner Ultimate Love, who may be a player in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Chad Brown sends out Alibi (#1), his only runner after the scratch of firster Consensus View. She ran fine behind Sweet Little Lila in her debut, but I didn't think she had a major excuse as she just picked up pieces late. She drew well for her second start, but I preferred others. Both Mike Repole-owned Todd Pletcher-trained first time starters were also purchased overseas with plenty of pedigree. Osmosis (#3) is a half-sister to turf stakes winner Gidu, and Resort (#11) is out of a dam who is a half-sister to multiple Group 1 turf winner Shamardal. My top pick is second time starter The Jeweler (#10), who raced like a filly who really needed her debut experience last month. She broke a step slowly, and didn't have much early speed from the rail. She got a pretty good trip saving ground, but just never appeared to get into a comfortable rhythm. She had to tap on the brakes a couple of times on the far turn, and then encountered traffic in mid-stretch while rallying between horses. The race was coming apart at the end, but I still thought she showed some encouraging late interest. This filly didn't get much of a speed figure for that performance, but I expect she can do better in hse second start.

Fair Value:
#10 THE JEWELER, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

I'm not particularly scared of any of the likely favorites in this first-level state-bred allowance. I suppose Intentious (#7) is the one to beat after finishing second at this level in each of her last two starts. She has really improved since getting that confidence boost at Finger Lakes two back, and she's carried that form forward to the NYRA circuit. She did get away awkwardly last time and put in a strong rally for second, though she benefited from a favorable pace setup. She's unlikely to get that same quick pace ahead of her this time. Princess Becca (#1) is the short price that I had initially dismissed, but the scratch of a pace rival drawn outside enhances her chances. She did run well off a similar freshening last year, and has plenty of prior efforts that make her competitive with this group. Nina Kay (#10) is another who might take money here after finishing second in her return at Saratoga in July. I don't like that she's subsequently missed more time after that, but she did show talent as a two-year-old. I just didn't love the visual of her last race, as she was hanging on her left lead through the stretch. I'm going in a different direction. Willful Mama (#9) looks like more of a turf horse, which makes her presence here somewhat intriguing. The Mike Maker barn has been winning with plenty of horses that don't look that formidable on paper, and many of them are producing career-best efforts in victory. Why can't this filly ride that trend? She just broke her maiden on turf, but she did handle dirt last winter when she was a late 2-year-old and early 3-year-old. Horses typically improve a great deal during their 3-year-old seasons, and she's probably capable of running faster on dirt now. I would imagine this half-sister to dirt sprinters Rotknee and My Mane Squeeze is working well for them to target a dirt race.

Fair Value:
#9 WILLFUL MAMA, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8

Truth and Beauty (#10) may very well be the best turf sprinter in this field. Her connections even thought about trying stakes company in the Autumns Days before settling on this more logical spot instead. The 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her turf maiden victory is well above par for the level, and that performance has been confirmed by runbacks, with the third-place finisher just returning to win impressively earlier this week. My main concern with her in this spot is the presence of other speed. She may be fastest early, but she's likely to have company up front, and I wonder if she can hold it together against this tougher group stretching out to 6 furlongs. Hangover Heaven (#4) is also stepping up in class, having just defeated first-level New York-bred allowance competition last time. She was so visually impressive in her debut at Saratoga, and she's proved in two subsequent starts that she really does prefer turf sprinting. I don't know that she's as naturally talented as Truth and Beauty, but she figures to get a good trip and should be finishing strongly. My top pick is Di Natale (#9), who makes her U.S. debut for trainer Wesley Ward. I don't know much about her prior form in Chile, but she is a 6-time winner facing horses who have primarily won far fewer races. I really like the way she's been training on the way into this race. She has looked best in company with every workmate during her training for this at Keeneland. She has very good size to her, and seemingly carries a lot of weight. That would be a concern if this weren't a turf sprint. While she had more recent success on dirt in Chile, she's bred to be a turf horse, and this feels like a logical spot.

Fair Value:
#9 DI NATALE, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

Even though Deemer (#3) was very disappointing in defeat as the favorite last time, he did have a valid excuse. This horse was unruly right from the start, reacting poorly to rating tactics. He was pulling around the clubhouse turn and onto the backstretch, and just could never get into position to strike. He had run well enough to win at this level in all of his prior starts, and Ricardo Santana figures to place him closer to the early pace this time. I certainly prefer him to the horse with the top speed figure last time, Blue Pill (#9). That horse was carried along by a superior field and probably won't be able to run as fast dropping back down to this level. Nonno Joe (#4) looks mildly interesting coming in off a lengthy layoff for Rudy Rodriguez and dropping in class. I wish he had run a little better in his only turf route as a two-year-old, but he was meeting much tougher rivals, a couple of which have since proven themselves against stakes company. My top pick is another layoff runner. Romeo Void (#2) hasn't been seen since April. He's obviously too slow to win here based on his prior speed figures, but horses can improve a lot from the spring to fall of their 3-year-old seasons. He ran better than it appears in both prior turf starts, getting wide trips on each occasion. We've seen a couple of horses from his last turf race come back to run improved speed figures subsequently. He draws well, and notably is in for the waiver as he return from this layoff.

Fair Value:
#2 ROMEO VOID, at 7-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

In the first of the day's stakes, the Sleepy Hollow, I didn't want to default to a short price on Bravaro (#1) attempting to stretch out for the first time. This horse was visually impressive on debut, but I'm not convinced that a son of Upstart is necessarily going to be as effective over a mile. Saffie Joseph is also just 3 for 19 ($0.72 ROI) with last-out debut winners stepping up into dirt stakes for their second starts over 5 years. If there's a horse that I expect to improve out of that race, it would be Max Money (#4), the third-place finisher. You dismiss anything Mike Maker is sending out at your own peril right now, and this horse does have pedigree to stretch-out in distance. He finally finished better last time after settling early. I'll try to beat the stretch-outs with Gaming Wizard (#6), who I think is the most likely winner based on his maiden win. I know that was an off the turf race, but he clearly stepped forward on the dirt, a surface he's bred to handle. His debut had been a deceptively strong effort, closing into a slow pace with a steady stretch rally. He showed that same finishing ability on dirt last time, but impressively produced after displaying vastly improved early speed. He set honest early fractions that took their toll on his pursuers, and then found another gear to open up late. He finished with very good energy despite ducking out greenly in mid-stretch, and his final eighth in 12.92 seconds was faster than both of his preceding furlongs.

Fair Value:
#6 GAMING WIZARD, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 3

I'm mildly against Twenty Six Black (#1) as the likely favorite in this New York Turf Sprint Championship. He was beaten as the odds-on choice against some of these same foes last time, which makes me question his ability to produce his best form at Aqueduct. He's a horse who has gotten very good at Saratoga in the last couple of seasons, and this year he hasn't run quite as well in three starts outside of that venue. Bold Journey (#5) is the horse who ran the best race in the Belmont Turf Sprint last time, closing belatedly for second. He's just hard to endorse on top since he hasn't won a race since the end of 2023, and his closing style makes him so dependent on pace. I'm going to give Dancing Buck (#4) one more chance to recapture his best form now as a 7-year-old. He is a horse who has needed a few starts to reach his peak fitness when returning from prior layoffs, and now he's making his third start of the season. He did show some progression last time despite fading off the board. He loves this Aqueduct turf course, and generally runs his best races late in the season. The price should be fair once again.

Fair Value:
#4 DANCING BUCK, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 4

The recent run of success by the Mike Maker barn at this meet perhaps suggests that it would be foolish to try and beatLetmecounttheways (#8) in the Maid of the Mist. She did show ability in her decisive debut victory, leading every step of the way after laying down some swift early fractions. She just doesn't strike me as a horse who is going to get better with added distance. I think others stretching out are much more likely to improve with the added ground. Rina's Revenge (#4) is the only filly in this field with route experience, having tried a mile in the Grade 1 Frizette. She made an early move down the backstretch before fading, and the class relief she gets should help her do better here. I'm just a little more interested in the pair coming out of the Lady Finger at Finger Lakes. The more immediately appealing of the pair is maiden Liberty's Advance (#6), who finished second in what was her career debut. She appears to be a filly who will appreciate added ground, by Constitution out of a dam who was a stakes winner routing on dirt. This is just a pretty big ask of a filly with so little foundation. It's also worth noting that Charlton Baker has been winning with over 40% of his starters at Finger Lakes in the last two months without having the same success at NYRA. My top pick is Mobelladream (#2), who finished behind that rival in the Lady Finger. Yet she galloped out best of all past the wire, and already has two starts under her belt. She strikes me as one that will really appreciate the added ground, and she's bred to get it with plenty of stamina influences in her female family. It also doesn't hurt that she picks up live rider Ricardo Santana in her NYRA debut.

Fair Value:
#2 MOBELLADREAM, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 6

Between the two favorites, I slightly prefer Sounds Like a Plan (#8) to George Briggs (#2). The former is coming back on short rest, but he's been in great form recently, achieving TimeformUS Speed Figures of 118 and 117 in his last two victories, numbers that tower over this field. He looks like the controlling speed once again, and has been improving in every start in the second half of this season. George Briggs arguably has greater upside making his first turf start since March of this year when he got a tough trip to finish third in the Colonel Liam against open company. The fact that he subsequently won on dirt at Saratoga just confirms that he's in great form right now. He did seemingly miss some time after that race, with no works between Sep. 6 and Oct. 5, but he's still supposed to be tough here. I'll try to beat them with Be of Courage (#1), who has been knocking on the door in a number of races since last winning off the layoff in May of this season. He was unlucky to lose against the talented Then after running off in the early stages of that July 20 race. Last time he got a great ride from Ruben Silvera but couldn't quite hold on late going a distance that is probably too far for him. I like him cutting back to 1 1/16 miles here, and he's run many of his best races over this Aqueduct course.

Fair Value:
#1 BE OF COURAGE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 9

I'm not trying to beat Awesome Czech (#4), who might go off as the lukewarm favorite in a competitive edition of the Ticonderoga. She has faced her two main rivals in this spot in each of her two most recent starts, and she's beaten them on both occasions. She won the Yaddo with a very good trip, but then beat those same foes again when they all stepped up against open company in the Athenia despite the fact that she got the worst trip. She was stuck wide around both turns, and still finished well to get up for third. This is slight class relief for her, and she has the versatility to work out a trip no matter how the pace develops. Those two mares who she defeated the last couple of times are Spinning Colors (#1) andMoonage Daydream (#5). The former is the speed of the race, but she got uncontested leads in both the Yaddo and Athenia and couldn't hold off Awesome Czech either time. Spinning Colors does appear to be a horse that elevates her game at Saratoga, and I wonder if she'll continue to hold that form into the fall. Moonage Daydream probably didn't want to go 1 1/8 miles in the Athenia, but she did save ground on the turns and just flatten out late. She's an obvious contender, but I preferred others. The one longshot that I could upgrade is Can't Fool Me (#2). She obviously has to improve on her recent form to compete against these stakes foes, but she did run well to upset a second-level allowance field two back. She then tried that same level last time and was blocked for most of the stretch run. She's improved in recent starts and now makes her first start off the claim for a barn that can win with this move. She just needs some pace to develop ahead of her.

Fair Value:
#4 AWESOME CZECH, at 7-5 or greater

RACE 10

I don't really have a knock against Iron Dome (#2), who has been improving with each start this season for Steve Asmusen. He clearly relishes this 9-furlong distance, and even held his own against some tough open company rivals last time in the Oklahoma Derby. We'll see if he can keep progressing now that he's making his fifth start in just over three months, but I would view him as the most likely winner. I'm less enthusiastic about the chances of Bank Frenzy (#5), who has been reliable at this level in the past. You can make excuses for his two recent losses in the Westchester and Morrissey, but I'm not convinced that his victory in the Commentator two back is as good as it looks at first glance. Almost everyone exiting that race has regressed subsequently, and I'm wondering if this horse has lost a step since early in the season. My top pick is Doc Sullivan (#1). Some may glance at his form and question his ability to get the 1 1/8 miles. Yet I think he ran deceptively well in both prior starts going this distance. He didn't get the most comfortable journey when finishing a game second to Pandagate in the 2024 Albany, and then he had no chance in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby when Jose Ortiz made the strange decision to reserve him in last early on. He has improved since a trainer switch to John Ortiz recently, and could potentially play out as the controlling speed here.

Fair Value:
#1 DOC SULLIVAN, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 11

I'm not thrilled with most of the runners exiting that Sep. 18 race at this level, and the second through fourth finishers in that spot could all take money in here. New York Scrappy (#9) is a little more appealing to me even as he returns from a near yearlong layoff. He did not get good trips in his last couple of turf starts at the end of 2024, particularly on Oct. 27 when he was inexplicably taken up early and guided 4-wide for the run around both turns. He's better than he looks, but I wonder if he'll take too much money here with a series of fast workouts showing. The only horse I would want from that aforementioned Sep. 18 maiden race is Inspeightofcharlie (#2), who wasn't competitive on that day. Yet it was just his turf debut and he looked a little green wearing blinkers for the first and only time. He subsequent tried turf again dropping into a $50k maiden claimer and he ran a lot better than it looks. He was no match for the winner, but did well to clearly secure second despite going 3 to 4-wide on both turns. He drew better inside this time, and I like the move back up in class. My top pick is Island Charlie (#4), who returns from a layoff for Michelle Nevin. This horse never got an opportunity to try turf when he was unveiled in the middle of winter last year, but he definitely has a turf pedigree. Speightster is a 12% turf sire, and the dam is out of a graded stakes-placed turf mare who produced multiple turf stakes winner Red Rifle. He's returning with a solid series of workouts showing for an underrated turf trainer. I'm expecting progression, and he should be a square price.

Fair Value:
#4 ISLAND CHARLIE, at 9-1 or greater
#2 INSPEIGHTOFCHARLIE, at 8-1 or greater