TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this opener, sending out two expensive juveniles likely to attract support. Million dollar purchase Britain (#1) is the horse to beat after finishing third in her debut behind subsequent Tempted winner Shilling. She stalked a moderate pace and had little answer for the top two in the lane. That effort still makes her appealing, since this race came up weaker for the level, and she may not need to improve much. Pomerance (#3) has a nice pedigree, by Curlin out of a dam who was Grade 1-placed sprinting and has produced Grade 2-winning router Thousand Words. She's listed as a $700k yearling purchase, but she was returned to her breeders. Brown generally does better with second time starters than he does with debut runners. Tom Morley is another trainer who doesn't have great stats with firsters, but this barn is on a roll right now. His Interstatelovesong (#5) has some pedigree to be a runner, by 16% juvenile debut sire Bolt d'Oro, making her a full-sister to stakes-placed dirt sprinter Navy Man. She's drawn well outside and shows a couple of solid works. I also considered Backstreets (#4), who got a strange ride on debut, never really asked for run from the quarter pole home despite racing in a contending position. Mark Hennig just doesn't have particularly strong stats with these types of runners, and I wonder if she might prefer a slight turnback.

RACE 2

I can't bring myself to take a short price on Off Script (#2), who is clearly the horse to beat based on her accomplishments, earning a series of speed figures that tower over most of this field. She's just had so many chances to win at short prices, and has hung late on both dirt and turf. Blinkers going on in her second attempts for Amelia Green, but that's not enough to convince me to take her as the favorite. Our Preferred Pal (#3) ran some competitive speed figures last spring, but she's had some breaks since then and a mile is stretching her. I'm more interested in the uncoupled H. James Bond pair. Neri (#4) has a right to improve second time out after staying on mildly with a wide trip in her debut. She's bred to go longer. I'll give slight preference to the first time starter Morgana's Moment (#6). She's a three-quarter sister to Baldizar and Merlin's Moment, who each were pretty precocious at handling route distances from the start. She trained reasonably well in Saratoga this summer, and this barn can occasionally win on debut.

RACE 3

That's Funny (#3) probably deserves favoritism as she drops in class out of a series of tougher races since the claim. However, her lack of speed is a concern since there isn't much pace in this race and she got a pretty favorable setup in her lone victory. I do prefer her to main rival Itwillbefun (#6), who will take money merely due to the fact that Flavien Prat is riding. She made a mild middle move after getting away slowly last time, but I don't like the way she finishes off her races, and she hasn't been quite the same since getting claimed away from Ken McPeek. Sheer Will (#1) feels like the best alternative. It took her 9 attempts to break her maiden, but she finally did so in convincing fashion last time. I do find it interesting that Linda Rice tries her against winners at the $30k level rather than dropping in for $17,500, which would seem more logical. Rice is 3 for 6 ($4.43 ROI) moving horses up in claiming tag by 50% off maiden wins over the last 5 years.

RACE 4

There isn't much to say here. The two favorites are standouts on paper. Whiskey N Soda (#1) fits the race shape a little better, since there appears to be plenty of speed signed on and he does his best running from off the pace. He's protected with the claiming waiver off the layoff, which can sometimes be a signal that a horse needs a race. Though, I'm not sure that's the case here with a horse who has limited experience racing this cheaply. I still prefer the recency of main rival Flat On (#5), who drops out of a deeper race at the level last time. He contested an honest pace between horses and stayed on pretty well through the lane. He's handled the two-turn 9 furlongs before, and is drawn well outside of his main pace rivals, one of which is a Rudy Rodriguez-trained stablemate.

RACE 5

This race looked mildly interesting at first glance, but I ultimately had trouble getting past the short prices at decision time. Coquito (#7) actually ran pretty well behind today's rival It Takes Heart (#2) when they met on Oct. 23. That wasn't a comfortable trip for Coquito, who has never really been successful rating behind horses. She showed that new dimension and was finishing best of all late once she finally got steered into the clear. She's drawn better outside this time, and that should be enough to put her over the top at this level. Last time was the time to have It Takes Heart, who finally broke cleanly. Yet her gate issues were persistent prior to that and I don't want to take a short price on her from an inside post. Pistol Liz Ablazen (#5) is the other mare to consider, and she certainly has the back class to win a race like this. She just didn't perform as well as Coquito last time, and her lack of early speed in recent starts is a concern. Though, she is second off a layoff and may do better in her second start for Gustavo Rodriguez.

RACE 6

I'm not trying to beat likely favorite Garden of Grace (#8), who should be pretty tough for this field to handle if she can work out a fair trip. Her form looks worse than it is since she's been compromised in each of her last two starts. She was stuck wide two back during a time when the rails were set to 0 feet on the Saratoga turf. She then dropped down in class to this level last time and almost surely would have won if not for a particularly bad ride. She was tentatively ridden away from the inside post as the field crossed over to the rail, and her rider elected to preemptively steady her all the way back to last. She actually did well to rally into third from that difficult position, but the race had been decided soon after the start. I still think she's a standout at this level, and she's now drawn better outside while getting a rider upgrade to Ricardo Santana. There are a few first time turfers to consider. One of those is Lupine (#2), the half-sister to allowance-level turf sprinter Yarrow. This filly goes out for top connections and looked like a horse that probably needed her debut. She just has to overcome a significant layoff. The same goes for You Know Better (#6), a former Clement runner now with Jorge Abreu. She could get overbet with Flavien Prat riding, and I have some concerns about the overall quality of both of these fillies. Brokealltherules (#5) may appreciate a turnback on turf, though she's moving up in class after facing weaker at the Meadowlands. Perhaps the most interesting alternative is first time starter Lady Meringue (#10). Linda Rice can be successful with maiden claiming debut runners, and this filly is a full-sister to a multiple turf winner. I'll primarily use her underneath the top pick.

RACE 7

This race didn't do much for me from a wagering standpoint. The three favorites look like the right ones. Bendoog (#3) is probably the horse to beat, but he's tough to trust as a win candidate, having settled for so many minor awards at short prices. He's just 1 for his last 11, and I didn't think he ran that much better than main rival Full Screen (#6) when they met at Churchill last time. That gelding was making just his second start off the claim for Brad Cox, and he was out of position early before making a mild run through traffic. Nine furlongs is a bit of a question, but he isn't catching the toughest field for the level. I just slightly prefer Film Star (#2) to both of these. I would really like him if I had full confidence that he could bounce back to form for a different after getting claimed away from Linda Rice. He was uncharacteristically sluggish in his first start for Rob Atras, but he was too aggressively handled to chase an honest pace at Parx. There isn't much speed in this race, and he generally is dangerous when he can get comfortable up front going this distance.

RACE 8

Danzit (#4) is obviously the horse to beat, but she has all the hallmarks of a runner who is going to get overbet. She's a million dollar filly with a regal pedigree going out for top connections. She's also being ridden by Flavien Prat, whose mounts have consistently garnered too much support over the last several weeks. She's getting class relief after facing some tough rivals last time, but I still can't say that I like any of her races that much and I'm not keen to take her as a potential odds-on favorite. I see some viable alternatives. One of those is Purloin (#7), who moves up in class after beating starter allowance competition. This filly has handled a mile in recent starts, but she wants every bit of this two-turn distance. She was pretty impressive when winning around two turns at Churchill back in June, and she's run as well in both local starts for Rice despite looking like she's just hitting her best stride in the final eighth each time. I thought she was far more dominant than the margin would suggest last time after racing 4-wide all the way around the second turn and still producing a turn of foot to kick away late. The other horse I want to use is Walk With Me (#6), who has some things to prove against open company. Yet, just like the favorite, she was facing tougher rivals when she tried this level twice in September. It's not as if she ran that much worse than Danzit on Sep. 28 with a tougher trip after getting rated off a slow pace in the early stages. She gets an interesting rider switch to Manny Franco, and has shown the capability to attain better forward position in a race that the TimeformUS Pace Projector rates as a No Speed scenario.

RACE 9

I couldn't find a suitable alternative to Jack's World (#8), who has run better than it looks in both prior turf starts. He was ridden like a horse who needed his debut experience back in August, taking back early before getting conservatively handled while navigating some traffic. That was also a tougher field than this one. He handled dirt well enough, but showed his preference for turf when getting back on that surface last time. However, he only drew into that race off the AE list and was stuck in post 12. That relegated him to a 3-wide trip around both turns, which obviously detracted from his performance. He showed that day that he possesses more tactical speed than he had shown previously, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Flavien Prat sends him forward with blinkers going on this time. If he works out that kind of trip, I doubt he gets beaten. Leave Me (#13) would be a mildly intriguing alternative after beating the favorite last time. However, he needs scratches to draw in and would be stuck with a much worse post here. You're Lookin Good (#1) ran slightly better than Kuleana (#3) when they met at this level last time, but I wasn't thrilled with the performances by either. Speedstre (#10) is the one first time turfer I would consider. I preferred him in what looked like a softer spot earlier this month but he was scratched by the regulatory vet. I like him switching to turf based on his physicality and mechanics, but he's now coming in having not had a workout since Nov. 1.