TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Friday, November 21
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
I'm not trying to get too creative here. Linda Rice appears to have made a shrewd claim with Atarah (#5), who won that $50k claimer and thus becomes eligible for this starter level on the NYRA circuit. Some may view it as a negative that she's claimed away from Will Walden, but horses first off a claim away from Walden are 10 for 38 (26%, $2.37 ROI) over 5 years. Linda Rice also sends this horse out for a pretty sharp owner who has most of his horses with Saffie Joseph. She has to get the distance, but she should be able to do it against this field. Big Air (#1) may run better stretching back out in distance after getting a somewhat uncomfortable trip last time. She needs a more aggressive ride to be effective here.
RACE 2
None of the short prices in this starter optional claimer do much for me. George Weaver has a pair of contenders in St. Brigid's Cross (#4) and Zuby (#5), but I'm not keen to take shot prices on either of them. St. Brigid's Cross did beat today's rival Pinky Brier (#1) when she broke her maiden, but that rival may have improved since then and is now first off the claim for Brad Cox. I would prefer her. Zuby was intended for turf on debut and ran well on grass in the Awad, but that was a very weak stakes for the level. I'm going against these logical sorts with Caradise (#2), who obviously has to get faster to win this race. Yet she's had three months off since she broke her maiden at Saratoga, and horses can progress quite a bit between August and November of their 2-year-old seasons. She ran better than it looks against a very tough field on debut at Saratoga, and then easily won her second start dropping in class. That form was flattered when runner-up Fonzi Angel came back to win her next dirt start, improving her Beyer by 19 points. She should be a fair price again for low-profile connections.
RACE 3
I had picked Sabby Sunset (#2) before the winner of her last race came back to improve considerably beating winners on Thursday. I had thought Sheer Will was a tougher rival than any of her competitors in this spot when I first handicapped it, and that certainly appears to be the case in retrospect. I'm not sure that we're going to get my 3-1 ML in light of Thursday's result, but I do view this filly as the one to beat. I liked her at a bigger price last time off some less than ideal trips on the way into that race, and she merits respect coming right back in a similar spot. The two main rivals don't do that much for me. Alyvia Mavis (#6) and Nittardi (#7) exit a pretty soft race at this level where a first time starter took most of the money.
RACE 4
The speed of Certified Loverboy (#2) has to be respected given the overall lack of pace in this race. Yet paces rarely seem to develop as they seem on this circuit, and I wonder if someone will go forward to keep him company early. I also have some concerns about this last race. I know he was setting a pretty quick pace for the distance, but I didn't like that he faded behind fellow pace rival Mr. Papagiorgio in what was a weaker race at this level. I much prefer Bramito (#4), who seemed to really appreciate this distance when he first tried it at Saratoga back in June. He was more engaged in the early stages that day and finished very strongly once guided into the clear. I also thought he ran a lot better than it looks in his subsequent start at this distance behind Malarchuk. That was a forwardly dominated race and he was always out of position racing very wide on both turns. He's run well around one turn since then, performing better than it might appear last time when closing resolutely up the rail despite getting put in tight quarters for nearly the entire stretch run. I like the switch to more aggressive rider Ricardo Santana, and Gustavo Rodriguez seems to excel in these dirt routes. The other horse I'll throw into the mix along with that runner is Bourbon Day (#1). His best dirt form has been achieved over wet tracks, but he's had some excuses in his dry dirt races. He's a little interesting switching into Linda Rice's barn following a freshening.
RACE 5
Escape Hall (#8) was a $42k two-year-old purchase who started out in auction-restricted races and is now dropping down to a logical level since we probably won't get more of the auction condition races getting written. He showed some minor improvement on turf last time, but he had run nearly as well in both prior dirt starts. Even that regression second time out isn't as bad as the result suggests when you consider the fast pace of that race. He drew perfectly outside and figures to finally earn that maiden win at a very short price. Winston D (#3) is one of the more logical alternatives to consider as he also drops down out of a tougher spot, but he hasn't shown as much talent as the favorite yet. Some may go to first time starter Whiskey Stones (#5), who debuts for capable first-out trainer Ned Allard, but I wish he had shown a bit more speed in his workouts.
RACE 6
This is another 2-year-old maiden race where I didn't want to get too creative. True Legend (#5) is probably the one to beat despite losing at a short price last time. He showed speed from the inside but then was taken in hand to come around the leader before taking over in upper stretch. I didn't like the way he faded in the final eighth of a mile, but perhaps that bit of early maneuvering detracted from his finish. He did put in a solid effort on debut. I prefer the upward trajectory of main rival Thirsted (#7), who stayed on well for second after getting a good trip in his turf debut. I would have preferred him stretching out off that performance, but there's no time to be picky at the end of turf season. I know he only got a 50 Beyer for that last start, but winner Chummers returned to run 13 points faster in defeat next time, so it was probably a better maiden event than the figures suggest. Dillielo (#6) is the other logical option to consider, but he lacks speed, has failed to progress since his debut, and has just been so one-paced in his races.
RACE 7
It's worth just drawing a line through the last race of She's Complicated (#7), as this is the horse I was referencing in my cryptic tweet earlier this week. Her antics prior to that start robbed her of any chance to be competitive. She basically ran off in the warm-up despite the attempted restraint of Kendrick Carmouche, heading down the backstretch at a full gallop before getting briefly apprehended. She then took off again when pursued by outriders, completing more than a full circuit of the track before coming to a stop. She probably should have been scratched, because it was clear that she had little left to offer during the actual race. She had previously dominated a field of N2L claimers for this price tag. This N3L condition isn't quite that soft, but at least she's dropping down to a realistic level. This filly has shown herself to be pretty fainthearted, so she tends to run her fastest races when she's facing inferior foes. This is the kind of level at which her talent can shine, and the one-mile distance allows her to get into a comfortable rhythm. Main rival Sassy Princess (#3)will take money based on a narrow loss at this level last time, and stretching out to a mile shouldn’t bother her since she handled going longer on turf. She makes some sense, but you have to swallow a shorter price now that her dirt form is exposed. I would also use Best Impression (#1), who showed more fight than I had ever seen from her before when rallying through traffic to finish second at this level last time. She may finally be putting things together, but she will need some racing luck from the rail.
RACE 8
Grace and Grit (#3) handled both dirt and the 9-furlong distance of her last race better than I could have expected. She traveled well into the race despite taking some kickback, but just couldn't find an extra gear in the late stages. She should appreciate the significant cutback to a one-turn mile. I still have some doubts about her overall upside as a dirt horse, but I suppose she's the horse to beat in this spot. Half-sisters Dream on Cara (#5) and Cara's Dreamweaver (#6) both had legitimate excuses in their last races. The former dwelt badly at the start, spotting the field at least 6 lengths. She actually made a decent middle move before flattening out. I don't know if she really wants to go a mile, but she's otherwise been in career-best form. Cara's Dreamweaver was no match for Grace and Grit last time, but she was compromised by a wide trip. Both would offer some appeal at double-digit odds, but I question their quality at this level. My top pick is Graceful Rose (#2), who has proven in the past that she can handle this one-mile distance without issue, including when trying it on this circuit. She's primarily sprinted in the last year, but I think stretching back out could suit her, especially since it will allow her to sit a bit closer to the pace. She was arguably best last time when closing strongly despite having to alter course through stretch traffic. Now she's racing second off a layoff with room to move forward.
RACE 9
I don't have a major knock against likely favorite Before the Wind (#8), who drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. He did have to overcome some traffic in upper stretch last time, and finished well after altering course prior to the eighth pole. I wish he had progressed a little more through the season, but his maiden special weight form should still make him tough dropping in against this softer field. Among the horses exiting that Oct. 26 race at this level, Blame It On K J (#5) ran the best race after going wide on both turns while others saved ground. I just question the overall quality of that affair given the longshot winner and blanket finish. The horse I want as the alternative to the favorite is Sammy C Note (#9), who stretches out off a pair of turf sprints. He ran well in both of those starts, clearly appreciating the switch to grass. While he showed good speed sprinting, he still strikes me as a horse that is naturally suited to going longer. He has a long, steady stride on him, and his dam was a 10-time turf route winner. He can attain good forward position on the stretch-out in a race where some of the plodding types might be pace-compromised.
Thursday, November 20
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this opener, sending out two expensive juveniles likely to attract support. Million dollar purchase Britain (#1) is the horse to beat after finishing third in her debut behind subsequent Tempted winner Shilling. She stalked a moderate pace and had little answer for the top two in the lane. That effort still makes her appealing, since this race came up weaker for the level, and she may not need to improve much. Pomerance (#3) has a nice pedigree, by Curlin out of a dam who was Grade 1-placed sprinting and has produced Grade 2-winning router Thousand Words. She's listed as a $700k yearling purchase, but she was returned to her breeders. Brown generally does better with second time starters than he does with debut runners. Tom Morley is another trainer who doesn't have great stats with firsters, but this barn is on a roll right now. His Interstatelovesong (#5) has some pedigree to be a runner, by 16% juvenile debut sire Bolt d'Oro, making her a full-sister to stakes-placed dirt sprinter Navy Man. She's drawn well outside and shows a couple of solid works. I also considered Backstreets (#4), who got a strange ride on debut, never really asked for run from the quarter pole home despite racing in a contending position. Mark Hennig just doesn't have particularly strong stats with these types of runners, and I wonder if she might prefer a slight turnback.
RACE 2
I can't bring myself to take a short price on Off Script (#2), who is clearly the horse to beat based on her accomplishments, earning a series of speed figures that tower over most of this field. She's just had so many chances to win at short prices, and has hung late on both dirt and turf. Blinkers going on in her second attempts for Amelia Green, but that's not enough to convince me to take her as the favorite. Our Preferred Pal (#3) ran some competitive speed figures last spring, but she's had some breaks since then and a mile is stretching her. I'm more interested in the uncoupled H. James Bond pair. Neri (#4) has a right to improve second time out after staying on mildly with a wide trip in her debut. She's bred to go longer. I'll give slight preference to the first time starter Morgana's Moment (#6). She's a three-quarter sister to Baldizar and Merlin's Moment, who each were pretty precocious at handling route distances from the start. She trained reasonably well in Saratoga this summer, and this barn can occasionally win on debut.
RACE 3
That's Funny (#3) probably deserves favoritism as she drops in class out of a series of tougher races since the claim. However, her lack of speed is a concern since there isn't much pace in this race and she got a pretty favorable setup in her lone victory. I do prefer her to main rival Itwillbefun (#6), who will take money merely due to the fact that Flavien Prat is riding. She made a mild middle move after getting away slowly last time, but I don't like the way she finishes off her races, and she hasn't been quite the same since getting claimed away from Ken McPeek. Sheer Will (#1) feels like the best alternative. It took her 9 attempts to break her maiden, but she finally did so in convincing fashion last time. I do find it interesting that Linda Rice tries her against winners at the $30k level rather than dropping in for $17,500, which would seem more logical. Rice is 3 for 6 ($4.43 ROI) moving horses up in claiming tag by 50% off maiden wins over the last 5 years.
RACE 4
There isn't much to say here. The two favorites are standouts on paper. Whiskey N Soda (#1) fits the race shape a little better, since there appears to be plenty of speed signed on and he does his best running from off the pace. He's protected with the claiming waiver off the layoff, which can sometimes be a signal that a horse needs a race. Though, I'm not sure that's the case here with a horse who has limited experience racing this cheaply. I still prefer the recency of main rival Flat On (#5), who drops out of a deeper race at the level last time. He contested an honest pace between horses and stayed on pretty well through the lane. He's handled the two-turn 9 furlongs before, and there's a little less pace in this race now that Rudy scratched his other speed horse.
RACE 5
This race looked mildly interesting at first glance, but I ultimately had trouble getting past the short prices at decision time. Coquito (#7) actually ran pretty well behind today's rival It Takes Heart (#2) when they met on Oct. 23. That wasn't a comfortable trip for Coquito, who has never really been successful rating behind horses. She showed that new dimension and was finishing best of all late once she finally got steered into the clear. She's drawn better outside this time, and that should be enough to put her over the top at this level. Last time was the time to have It Takes Heart, who finally broke cleanly. Yet her gate issues were persistent prior to that and I don't want to take a short price on her from an inside post. Pistol Liz Ablazen (#5) is the other mare to consider, and she certainly has the back class to win a race like this. She just didn't perform as well as Coquito last time, and her lack of early speed in recent starts is a concern. Though, she is second off a layoff and may do better in her second start for Gustavo Rodriguez.
RACE 6
The scratch of formidable favorite Garden of Grace opens this race up to several other contenders. One of those is Lupine (#2), the half-sister to allowance-level turf sprinter Yarrow. This filly goes out for top connections and looked like a horse that probably needed her debut. She just has to overcome a significant layoff. The same goes for You Know Better (#6), a former Clement runner now with Jorge Abreu. She could get overbet with Flavien Prat riding, and I have some concerns about the overall quality of both of these fillies. Brokealltherules (#5) may appreciate a turnback on turf, though she's moving up in class after facing weaker at the Meadowlands. Perhaps the most interesting alternative is first time starter Lady Meringue (#10). Linda Rice can be successful with maiden claiming debut runners, and this filly is a full-sister to a multiple turf winner. She's a potential upgrade depending on her appearance pre-race.
RACE 7
Bendoog (#3) is probably the horse to beat, but he's tough to trust as a win candidate, having settled for so many minor awards at short prices. He's just 1 for his last 11, and I didn't think he ran that much better than main rival Full Screen (#6) when they met at Churchill last time. That gelding was making just his second start off the claim for Brad Cox, and he was out of position early before making a mild run through traffic. Nine furlongs is a bit of a question, but he isn't catching the toughest field for the level. I prefer Film Star (#2) to both of these. He would obviously be easier to endorse if you could have full confidence that he was ready to bounce back to form following a poor effort last time. That was his first start for a different barn after getting claimed away from Linda Rice, who had him for the last few seasons. That first performance for Rob Atras looks uncharacteristically sluggish on paper, but he was too aggressively handled trying to chase an honest pace at Parx. There isn't much speed in this race, and he generally is dangerous when he can get comfortable up front going this distance.
RACE 8
Danzit (#4) is obviously the horse to beat, but she has all the hallmarks of a runner who is going to get overbet. She's a million dollar filly with a regal pedigree going out for top connections. She's also being ridden by Flavien Prat, whose mounts have consistently garnered too much support over the last several weeks. She's getting class relief after facing some tough rivals last time, but I still can't say that I like any of her races that much and I'm not keen to take her as a potential odds-on favorite. I see some viable alternatives. One of those is Purloin (#7), who moves up in class after beating starter allowance competition. This filly has handled a mile in recent starts, but she wants every bit of this two-turn distance. She was pretty impressive when winning around two turns at Churchill back in June, and she's run as well in both local starts for Rice despite looking like she's just hitting her best stride in the final eighth each time. I thought she was far more dominant than the margin would suggest last time after racing 4-wide all the way around the second turn and still producing a turn of foot to kick away late. The other horse I want to use is Walk With Me (#6), who has some things to prove against open company. Yet, just like the favorite, she was facing tougher rivals when she tried this level twice in September. It's not as if she ran that much worse than Danzit on Sep. 28 with a tougher trip after getting rated off a slow pace in the early stages. She gets an interesting rider switch to Manny Franco, and has shown the capability to attain better forward position in a race that the TimeformUS Pace Projector rates as a No Speed scenario.
RACE 9
I couldn't find a suitable alternative to Jack's World (#8), who has run better than it looks in both prior turf starts. He was ridden like a horse who needed his debut experience back in August, taking back early before getting conservatively handled while navigating some traffic. That was also a tougher field than this one. He handled dirt well enough, but showed his preference for turf when getting back on that surface last time. However, he only drew into that race off the AE list and was stuck in post 12. That relegated him to a 3-wide trip around both turns, which obviously detracted from his performance. He showed that day that he possesses more tactical speed than he had shown previously, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Flavien Prat sends him forward with blinkers going on this time. If he works out that kind of trip, I doubt he gets beaten. Leave Me (#13) is a mildly intriguing alternative after beating the favorite last time. However, he's stuck with a much worse post here after drawing in off the AE list. You're Lookin Good (#1) ran slightly better than Kuleana (#3) when they met at this level last time, but I wasn't thrilled with the performances by either. Speedstre (#10) is the one first time turfer I would consider. I preferred him in what looked like a softer spot earlier this month but he was scratched by the regulatory vet. I like him switching to turf based on his physicality and mechanics, but he's now coming in having not had a workout since Nov. 1.
