TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

It's hard to split the likely favorites in this opener. Both Floge (#3) and Luna Moth (#4) are dropping in class after finishing off the board in a $20k claimer. Floge has run this cheaply before, but Luna Moth will be dropping down to the $10k level for the first time. While I generally prefer the early speed of Floge, Luna Moth did have some minor trouble when caught behind that fading foe at the quarter pole of their last race. I'll give the slight nod to Luna Moth if they are indeed similar prices.

RACE 2

Gulfy (#1) has to be considered the one to beat in this starter optional claiming after dominating a maiden field last time. It did take him six attempts to finally garner that maiden diploma, but he had run deceptively well against tougher competition in several maiden special weight starts prior to that. He put forth an underrated effort two back when chasing outside against the gold rail on Feb. 5. However, he had no such barriers in his path last time, as he got right to the front end and drew off in the mud. The form of that race was flattered when runner-up First Blessing returned to win last week. He does switch into the barn of Gustavo Rodriguez, but that trainer is 12 for 50 (24%, $2.67 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes over the last 5 years. The only horse I can support as an alternative is Anyway (#2), who gets some minor class relief after facing stakes company last time. He was no match for impressive winner Sculco's Folly, but was hardly disgraced in his grinding fourth-place result. I felt that the main track was mildly biased towards inside runners on Mar. 7, and Anyway found himself chasing wide throughout, so I would upgrade his performance slightly. While he hasn't won in either start over a mile, he has demonstrated that he handles the distance. He should get a fair pace setup this time, something he lacked in the last race, as there are multiple speeds signed on.

RACE 3

Timaeus (#7) is dropping all the way down to the $10k level after facing much tougher rivals over the last year in the Rudy Rodriguez barn. That makes him a deserving favorite, but I'm still a little reluctant to take a short price on a horse that has been somewhat unreliable over the last several months. He probably didn't appreciate a wet track last time, since he's never run particularly well over that kind of surface. I certainly prefer him to main rival Skylander (#3), who is unproven going this short. He's had prior experience racing this cheaply, and now makes his first start off the claim for Wayne Potts. He did win at this level last time, but did so with the benefit of a ground-saving trip. I want to take a shot against this pair with Prince of Truth (#4). He ran very well at this level on Feb. 14. Though he was narrowly beaten by one of today's rivals, he undoubtedly ran the best race after chasing wide against the rail bias. Then last time he was always out of position behind a slow pace after getting shuffled back early. This barn has had a few horses outrun their odds at the meet, and I think this gelding is due for a rebound performance.

RACE 4

If What's Up Bro (#7) breaks decently and the others concede the lead to him, he's probably going to win again. That was the case last time, but I wonder if tactics will be different today. What's Up Bro isn't always the quickest horse out of the starting gate, but his natural speed in the opening quarter can intimidate his rivals. Factually Correct (#1) broke on top of the field last time, but his rider had little intention to secure the lead and allowed What's Up Bro to cross in front. I wonder if that's one reason for this rider change to Ruben Silvera, who is one of the most aggressive riders on the circuit. Factually Correct is an excellent gate horse and he might be able to get the jump on his main rival out of the blocks. It seems like Factually Correct has gone off form for Fernando Abreu, but he has had excuses. There were a couple of vet-voided claims last year, and he was wide against the bias on Feb. 13. He's better than he looks and it's not like there's any other speed to push him if What's Up Bro doesn't break as sharply. The biggest threat might come from off the pace, as Elysian Meadows (#5) is an intriguing prospect returning from a layoff. He has prior sprint form that makes him highly competitive against this field and Bill Mott's barn can have horses ready off this kind of break. If the two aforementioned speeds duel on the front end, it could set it up for him, but I would prefer using him underneath my top pick.

RACE 5

Chips and Fish (#4) is obviously the horse to beat after earning the highest speed figure in the field on debut. The older horse he chased home would be a massive favorite in this spot, so he might actually be getting some class relief despite technically moving up in claiming price. I prefer him to main rival Mach Schnell (#1), who did contest a fast pace last time, but seemed to struggle with the 7 furlongs. The only alternative I would want to upgrade is Bellamy (#7), who now makes his third start in the barn of Linda Rice. He's improved gradually since getting claimed in December, and exits a much tougher race than this one. He chased home Tiger Rocket, who returned to finish a close fourth in the Jimmy Winkfield with an improved speed figure. The margin of defeat was exaggerated when Kendrick Carmouche eased up on him late last time, and I think he can do better against this softer bunch.

RACE 6

There are several intriguing second time starters in this NY-bred maiden special weight, but it could be a first time starter who takes the most money. Venetta (#3) looks pretty live for her debut. She's by 19% debut sire Yaupon and is a half-sister to stakes winner Mrs. Orb. Her works have been fast, and Danny Gargan has pretty good statistics with firsters. He's also been on a roll at NYRA over the last 6 months, going 10 for 23 (43%, $4.00 ROI) at Aqueduct since the end of September. She's dangerous, but I do think one of the second time starters will offer better value. Majorsdreamcometru (#8) is the one with experience that I want. She faced a pretty solid field on debut, from which horses have returned to run well. While she didn't get a terrible trip, she had a few things working against her. She broke a step slowly and then rushed up to chase the pace down the backstretch. He moved 2 to 3-wide on the turn, but that was one of many days featuring a rail bias. Given those disadvantages, she ran better than the margin of defeat would suggest. She draws better outside this time, and appears to have worked well since the unveiling. Punchoutandgohome (#7) is another with a right to improve in her second start, but I wonder if she'll want to go even farther than this given the strong finish she put in. Beau's Bella (#2) broke a step slowly and chased some tough rivlals over a wet track. She took money that day and may improve here. Barbour County (#4) had a trip first time out, but I really didn't like the way she shut down in the last quarter, and I get the sense she's a horse who wants turf based on her action and pedigree.

RACE 7

This allowance optional claimers features horses who have finished first, second, and third in the Wood Memorial. Resilience (#1) and Society Man (#5) completed the exacta in the 2024 Wood, and Dreamlike (#7) was a narrowly beaten third in the 2023 Wood. All of these horses must have seen better days if they're still eligible for an N2X allowance, but Dreamlike has at least enjoyed a renaissance since coming into the barn of Linda Rice. He earned a fast number winning his N1X condition at this distance three back, and since then has twice run well at this level, including a closing second behind the talented Donegal Surges. His consistency makes him the horse to beat, but his running style makes him pace dependent. Rudy Rodriguez has a couple of contenders in here, of which Le Gris (#4) might be most dangerous due to his early speed in a race lacking much pace. I want to go in a different direction with Wynstock (#6). He was overbet when made the favorite in a $100k claimer last time, since he's not a horse that does his best running around one turn. You could also tell that he just wasn't handling the sloppy track last time from early in the race. He was much more effective two back when dominating a NY-bred field going this distance. That was his first start off the claim for Brad Cox and I think he can get back to that level here, especially if he gets aggressively ridden early by Manny Franco.

RACE 8

Forgone (#7) is probably the right favorite on the drop in class, but this horse is a little tough to trust. He's a one-time $600k yearling who is now dropping all the way down to this $12,500 claiming level. He obviously ran poorly last time, but perhaps he just hated the sloppy track. He's a big, heavy horse so that would track, but I'm still not sure I want to bet him to rebound at a short price. I'm interested in a couple of horses who chased home the superior Tactical Trackstar at this level last time. The winner was a significant dropdown better than most rivals at this level. Magni (#6) closed decently for second and looks like a logical alternative to the favorite. Perhaps he improved on a wet track, but I can make some excuses for his efforts two and three back. Fiscal Drag (#10) didn't finish far behind Magni last time and figures to be a better price here. He's another one who has had some excuses, placed over his head off the claim and then chasing outside against a track bias on Feb. 13. He woke up last time, and that fits with a pattern of Jimmy Ferraro horses running well lately. He fits at this level and can outrun his odds.