TimeformUS Race Analysis

RACE 1

Kay Cup (#4) will obviously be a handful if she gets back to her sprint-winning efforts from early in her career. However, her connections have tried to stretch her speed over 9 furlongs in her last two starts, and horses that make such a more aren't always as sharp as they used to be when they turn back in distance. I have some interest in Ariana Rye (#1), who returns from a layoff. This filly obviously disappointed when last seen at this level in April, but something may have gone wrong that day to trigger the layoff. She had solid form prior to that, but I worry that she could need a start off the layoff.

RACE 2

Among the first time starters, Game for It (#3) is the obvious one who jumps off the page. He shows a series of fast workouts for his debut, including a sub-47 gate drill form early November. I don't love Known Agenda as a win-early sire, but there is speed and precocity on the dam's side. Chad Summers has had success with these types in recent seasons and has been on a roll lately at Aqueduct. Among those with experience, Just Tipsy (#5) seems like the one to beat. He was facing a pretty solid field of New York-breds on debut and showed some ability despite going off at 68-1. He was off slowly and stayed on well through the late stages in a pretty deep race for the level. Jena Antonucci does much better with second time starters than she does with horses making their debuts. Sixer (#7) is another to consider. He was taken up at the start of his debut, then was climbing greenly at the back of the pack before staying on mildly. Carlos Martin can get horses to win second time out, but I was hoping to see him go longer than this in his second start.

RACE 3

Tammy's Cruiser (#8) figures to go favored by default in this low-level conditioned claimer that is lacking in strong recent form. She ran pretty well when last seen all the way back in April at Keeneland, where she was claimed by Linda Rice. I do find it mildly interesting that Rice doesn't protect her for the waiver off this layoff, instead dropping her in class. She has plenty of prior sprint races that would beat this field, but the layoff and drop do leave some question marks. There appears to be a fair amount of early speed in this race, which should help the closers. Ragtime Sizzle (#7) made a decent late rally into fourth at this level last time after dropping too far back in the early stages. She can do better here, but does need to work out a trip with the apprentice getting aboard. My top pick is Mia Nipotina (#1), who ran some decent races on this circuit last winter before going back to her Finger Lakes base. She's only 1 for 25 in her career, and is winless since a victory here in February. However, she is coming off one of her better efforts in a while, flying up the rail to just miss last time. That was her first start off a layoff, and she has a right to move forward here for Rachel Sells, whose barn has really picked things up in the last 6 months or so.

RACE 4

Celestial Glaze (#7) figures to go favored now that Flavien Prat picks up the mount, which wasn't the case when this race was originally drawn on Nov. 30. He possesses a little more tactical speed than some of the other late runners in here, and has proven that he belongs at this level. Seven furlongs is a more appropriate trip for him than the mile he tried last time. He was compromised by a slow pace that day, and he was wide against an inside bias two back. I just think he's pretty logical. I just prefer a couple of rivals with a little more early speed. Rhythm Nic (#4) nearly wired a field going a mile last time, but he's proven to be a better sprinter. The form of his last two races has been flattered by some strong runbacks. His current connections claimed him for just $12,500, so I like the confidence being displayed as he is again bumped up in class to the $50k level. My top pick is Golden Symphony (#6), another runner who wants to be forwardly placed. I like that he is at least drawn outside of his main pace rivals, which should give Sahin Civaci some options. He ran very well to be second two back after setting an honest pace in a strong starter allowance event. He then caught an even tougher group at that level last time, where he chased a quicker pace while never inside in a rail-dominated affair. He's returning on short rest, but I think he fits this spot well.

RACE 5

Island Charlie (#6) looks pretty logical on the dropdown as he makes his second start off the layoff. I actually liked him getting on the turf last time since he has plenty of pedigree for that surface. He showed speed and faded, probably just needing the race off the layoff. I think he has upside, but I would have preferred to see him staying on turf or targeting longer races. I'm not sure sprinting is his best gig, but it might not matter against this group. Hello Newman (#9) ran fine getting on dirt last time after a wide trip. He's not particularly interesting, but a contender nonetheless. I prefer the upside of Fric and Frac (#1), who makes just his second dirt start. He does have plenty of turf pedigree from his dam, but Leofric is more of a dirt influence and this horse ran like one who needed a race in that dirt debut. He may show more speed with blinkers going on.

RACE 6

Bold Victory (#4) will probably go favored here as he stretches back out in distance. While he did win going 7 furlongs two back, he's generally been better as a router. He beat a much stronger group than this when he won at the $16k level two back, and he's now catching a very weak $10k claimer. He should win if he produces his recent form, but you have to be a little concerned about his lack of early speed. I don't like the expected frontrunner Bar Fourteen (#5), who has proven himself to be much more of a turf horse at this stage of his career. He's in form right now, but I'm skeptical of his ability to transfer it to dirt. I'll instead take a shot with Because the Night (#7), who might look a cut below these on paper. Yet I can poke holes in the favorite, and there's no one else to fear in this spot. He was just rounding into top form this summer before being given a break. His sprint return was probably intended as a prep, and he traveled well from the back before getting taken up behind a spill on the far turn. Now he's stretching back out to a distance that suits him, and the price figures to be fair for low-profile connections that can send out some live longshots at times.

RACE 7

Likely favorite Yo Banana Boy (#3) already has plenty of experience at this level and arguably ran the best race last time when hanging on for second behind the classy National Identity after chasing a fast pace. He also ran well prior to that when put in tight quarters attempting to rally up the rail, again settling for second behind a winner with stakes credentials. Yo Banana Boy has finished second in 3 of his last 4 attempts at this level, suggesting that he isn't the most reliable win candidate, but he has been pretty consistent as of late. He's coming in off two of the best performances of his career, both of which came since adding Lasix. There is plenty of speed drawn outside of him, and he's shown much better willingness to rate and finish than he had earlier in his career. I view him as a fairly likely winner. The most talented of the speeds is What's Up Bro (#4), but he lacks the consistency of his main rival. He faded badly after failing to make the lead two back at Saratoga, and last time was mildly disappointing, unable to sustain the pace that Yo Banana Boy was stalking. Now he's drawn inside of pace rivals like Factually Correct (#6) and Tall Paul (#7), which could complicate his task. That latter runner switches back into the barn of John Terranova while dropping in class out of a tougher spot in California. He may move forward second off a layoff, but he figures to be overbet with Flavien Prat getting aboard. With all the speed in here, you have to consider the lone closer Braciole (#5), who could potentially win this race if the pace completely collapses, but he's hardly the most talented horse in this field. I'll use him underneath.

RACE 8

Shoot the Nickel (#5) is a convincing favorite as he drops all the way down to this $17,500 level after facing nothing but tougher competition since breaking his maiden over a year ago. Gold Square has made a few aggressive dropdowns lately, and Adrianne DeVaux did win with her horse Marcus Gift when she finally dropped him into a realistic spot last month. I'm not viewing this as a major negative for a horse who probably needs the class relief. There appears to be some pace in here to set up his late run. Pace might help Leading Role (#2) if he runs a similar race to last time. I'm not exactly sure where his early speed went, but he did adapt well to rallying tactics. However, the horse I want out of that race is runner-up Wajda (#7), who ran very hard in his return from the layoff. This gelding was almost unratable early as he ran off on the front end. He understandably tired going 7 furlongs, but he should be fitter in his second start off the layoff for Rice. I am a little concerned about the amount of pace signed on, but there isn't an appealing closer in this lineup. Another alternative to consider is Zakat (#6), who got taken up when attempting to send for the lead last time, and then lost position staying glued to the rail in a race featuring a distinct outside flow. He's relatively lightly raced and still has room for improvement, now making his first start as a new gelding.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

Points Is Points (#1) is clearly the horse to beat among those with recent dirt form, but her merits are fairly obvious. She was the last horse to beat Fully Subscribed, who has since reeled off a pair of graded stakes victories. Yet she's going to be a pretty short price for a horse who has produced her best form around two turns and has never run nearly as well in one-turn races. She isn't catching the deepest field for this level, and her early speed should play well here, but I do have some doubts about her ability to produce her best form at this distance. I prefer likely co-favorite Maggie Go (#3). She has the ability to win a race like this, and I won't hold her last performance against her, since it looked like she had an issue. Switching to dirt is the major question mark, since she was more of a turf horse when competing in Argentina as a younger horse. Yet surface preference from South America doesn't always translate to North America tracks. I find it interesting that this filly is even entered here. Chad Brown is stabled in Florida through the winter, so she could have been targeted at Tampa or Gulfstream turf races. Yet instead she's trying dirt here. I recall that Chad Brown said prior to her U.S. debut that he wouldn't have been upset to see the Eatontown get rained off the grass because this filly trains so well on dirt. He just had to enter her on turf because it's what her form dictated, but it seems like this is what he always wanted to try.

RACE 2

Proud Foot (#1) seems like the one to beat as she drops back down to the level at which she won two back for prior connections. That was the first time in quite a while that she had raced so cheaply and she got the job done, though not in terribly impressive fashion. She faced better off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci last time, fading after chasing the pace outside. The drop in class should suit her, but I do worry that her form has been gradually tailing off over the course of the season. Main rival Problematica (#2) hasn't been seen since winning at Saratoga in August, and now she's drawn inside of other speed rivals who should press her early. She'll have her work cut out for her. I'll instead take a shot with Florida Flower (#4) at what should be a square price. I had thought she was pretty interesting last time, and she ran a nice race until fading past mid-stretch. She was reported to have bled in that race, and that tracks with the visual of her shortening stride in the final furlong. She had finished gamely in her two starts prior to that, albeit against slightly weaker competition. I don't mind her turning back in distance, especially if some pace develops.

RACE 3

Vettriano (#6) looks quickest of them all early, and Kendrick Carmouche should be able to control this race on the front end from an advantageous outside post. The Pace Projector suggests that Toxic Gray (#1) is nearly as swift in the early stages, but I wonder how aggressive they'll be with him considering that he's returning from a layoff in this spot. Vettriano has gotten back into top form in his last two starts, and was beaten by a stronger rival than he meets here in the Hudson last time out. He has to hold off main rival Victory Way (#5), but that one hasn't exactly been finding the winner's circle lately despite possessing competitive form.

RACE 4

Mo Curls (#1) is probably the horse to beat in a race lacking very much form at all. He's faced better competition in both prior starts, and is getting logical class relief after not really getting disgraced either time. He stays on at the end of his races like a horse that shouldn't mind a little added ground, but you do have to swallow a short price on a horse who still has much to prove. Drop Me a Dime (#4) might take money based purely on connections, since it seems like everything trainer John Ortiz sends out for Tristar Farm has been live. This gelding was outrun every step of the way in his turf debut, but he is by more of a dirt sire and is another who looks like he should take to added ground. My top pick is Reign It In (#3), who notably is the only horse in this field with prior route experience, having gone long in all three starts of his career. He didn't show much in his first two races on this circuit, but I thought he ran on decently last time at Finger Lakes. That was a very slow pace, and he nearly got up for second behind a runaway winner. I won't be surprised when there's further improvement in his second start for Charlie Baker, and it doesn’t hurt to pick up Joel Rosario.

RACE 5

Spiritual Lady (#5) is probably the horse to beat as she drops back down in class after getting protected in all four starts since getting claimed by these connections. Her last race was disappointing, but she did have an issue at the start and that race was dominated by a horse who has produced some big efforts at Finger Lakes. She's dropping back down to the cheapest level of her career, and should be tough to beat if she can get back to her prior NYRA form. Though, I do have some concerns that she's lost the early speed that she once possessed, which may be an indicator that she's vulnerable here. There does seem like enough pace in this race to set up the closers. Dream On Cara (#9) is another getting class relief, dropping in for her lowest claiming tag. She won against conditioned claimers this summer before facing much tougher in her last two starts. I don't mind her turning back in distance. Book of Wisdom (#3) should be a bigger price and has some races in her form that give her a shot here, especially if the favorite fails to show up. She ran deceptively well to close into a moderate pace two back at this level, and last time she wanted no part of going a mile. She now gets an interesting rider switch to an apprentice who has had a lot of success out of town.

RACE 6

This starter allowance might be the most competitive race of the day, as you can make a case for just about everyone. House United (#1) is probably the one to beat given his consistent speed figures. He's generally gone a mile recently, but he did handle 9 furlongs when he tried it this summer. I won't be too hard on him for failing to hit the board last time, since that was one of the toughest starter allowance races run on the circuit all year. He's an obvious contender. I much prefer him to Hamilton's Way (#9), who could also take money first off the claim for Mike Maker with Flavien Prat getting aboard. He has handled dirt in the past, but he's more inconsistent on this surface and has never won over it. He's not drawn well, and isn't for me. Whiskey N Soda (#3) seems like a candidate to step forward second off the layoff. He was shrewdly spotted in a cheaper conditioned claimer where his connections could use the waiver option. He easily outclassed those horses, and should benefit from getting that run under his belt. My top pick is Neon Bordeaux (#5), who has some things to prove stretching back out to this distance, since his first attempt going this far was disappointing. However, I do think he's improved since then, and he is a horse who was targeted at longer races from early in his career. He has a massive stride on him, and physically looks like one that should want to run all day. He got pace to close into when he got up against claimers last time, but that was a strong race for the level, from which Frizzante came back to win. I think he can continue his forward progression for Rick Dutrow.

RACE 7

Pantherian (#2) is likely to be a clear favorite despite failing to cross the wire first on debut. He got put up by the stewards after getting legitimately bumped in the late stages of that race, but it's debatable that he was ever going by that foe. He now gets a rider switch to Flavien Prat, which will weigh down his price. He has upside, but Wamo (#3) might have run better when they met on Oct. 24, even considering the late contact. He was clearly best last time when breaking slowly and making a wide run into contention. He may need to run faster to win here, but he has been improving with every start. Gaming Wizard (#5) is one of two horses exiting the Sleepy Hollow, where he chased the pace while racing wide throughout before fading to fourth. He failed to build on his impressive maiden score when he demolished an off the turf field by over 13 lengths. I do think this horse is talented enough to win at this level, but I'm not sure that the turnback to 7 furlongs helps him. I do like the turnback for the other horse exiting the Sleepy Hollow. Time to Roll (#7) actually broke his maiden on that same Sep. 26 card as Gaming Wizard, and did achieved the slower final time and speed figure. However, I liked the way Time to Roll put away his pace rivals and opened up on that field in upper stretch before getting leg weary late. He was another horse contesting the pace in the Sleepy Hollow, from which early leader Fourth and One came back to win last week with a career-best speed figure. Time to Roll has never raced shorter than a mile, but he is by versatile sire Not This Time out of a dam who was a pure turf sprinter. I think this shorter trip should suit him, and now he's drawn well outside of all the other speed.

RACE 8

Perhaps this is the wrong time to give up on Interceptor (#1), since I've tried this horse in some much tougher spots recently. In retrospect, he's just not nearly as good as I had once thought. His lone victory was a lucky one, where got an advantageous forward trip over a rail-biased surface. He hasn't run nearly as well in his surrounding starts. There isn't much speed in this field, so perhaps he can get forward again. He fit well but won't be much of a price on the class drop. Turn and Count (#7) dropped to this level last time, but that was going the wrong distance. Nothing about this horse says that he should handle sprinting, so that was always a strange spot. He still ran even worse than you might have expected, so her has questions to answer. Yet he is first off the claim for a barn that has been on a roll lately. My top pick is Kavanaugh (#3), who scratched out of a tougher starter allowance recently to go for this more realistic spot instead. It took him a while to break his maiden, but he did so beating the same heavy favorite than Interceptor held off in his only win. It seems like Bruce Brown got this horse back on track, and now he's making his first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci, who is dangerous with this move. He showed enough tactical speed to suggest he shouldn't get outrun here.