TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

The dropdowns making their first starts for a tag figure to attract the most support in this $35k maiden claiming opener. Leading that group is Bellamy (#8), a $425k yearling purchase who hasn't lived up to that investment. It's a negative that he even started out on turf, since he really has more of a dirt pedigree. He finally makes his first start on the main track, and perhaps the class relief will be enough to wake him up. I just wouldn't want to take too short a price on that prospect, and he figures to get bet with Flavien Prat aboard. Natural Shooter (#3) is a little more appealing as he makes also makes his first start for a tag, instead coming out of maiden optional claiming events. He has run reasonably well in both prior dirt starts and picked up pieces behind a dominant winner going this distance two back. The horse I want to get also drops from that level. Big Brooklyn (#1) is likely to be the bigger price of two Carlos Martin trainees in here, but I think he can improve getting out to this longer distance. He's by good route influence Big Brown out of a dam who was a dirt route winner. This gelding runs like a horse who needs more ground, and that was especially apparent last time when he was rated farther off the pace with blinkers off. He was reserved early, but finished well into a moderate pace. Jose Lezcano should benefit from that experience riding him, and I expect a better result here.

RACE 2

After the scratch of the favorite, who I had originally not been attempting to beat, I will upgrade second time starter Tampa Storm (#2). This colt broke awkwardly on debut and just ran around there at one pace. That was a turf race, but he's bred to be more of a dirt horse as a full-brother to dirt stakes winner Khali Magic. He has some things to prove and must break cleaner this time, but there isn't much left in this field after scratches. Sociably Johnny (#3) is another second time starter who should progress from this debut. He was green and climbing in the early stages before leveling off to get up for second. He'll be tough if he runs a more complete race this time. Whiskey Runner (#7) finished just behind that foe, but may be better suited to this spot given his early speed. His two pace rivals that bookended this field have both scratched out, so he may enjoy a more moderate pace than he encountered last time. The only drawback is that Flavien Prat will drag down the price.

RACE 3

Merica's Back (#5) is going to attract support purely because he's ridden by Flavien Prat. He does have a set of speed figures that make him competitive here even though he's stepping up from maiden company, and his last race was flattered by the runner-up returning to win. I still think he offers poor value given all of the speed signed on. A strong early pace would benefit Three B's (#4), who just missed at this level last time. This might be a tougher spot than that, but he's been consistent since the Linda Rice claim. Beary Funny (#2) might have the best race of any of the closers, going back to when he won first off the claim for Bill Morey last winter. He's been off for a long time since then, but shows a steady worktab for this return. There does appear to be plenty of speed signed on, but the two fastest horses in the field are drawn in the two outermost post positions, which might cause the pace to moderate when they drop over. Roofer (#8) has been ridden as a need the lead type recently, but drawing outside should give Ruben Silvera the option to stalk and pounce. He hasn't used that style much lately, but he's still run well, subtly improving over his last few starts. He was arguably best last time as the only horse involved in the pace to still be around at the finish.

RACE 4

I'm not trying to beat Power of Women (#6), who was bet strongly into the well-meant winner Hot Currency on debut. She showed speed and faded against a much tougher field than she's facing here. She now gets logical class relief as a homebred daughter of budget sire Big Brown. Charlie Baker has had a slow couple of seasons on the NYRA circuit, but he is 12:3-3-2 ($3.25 ROI) on dirt here in the last 3 months, and 25 for 70 (36%, $2.70 ROI) overall during that timeframe when you factor in his Finger Lakes results. None of the others with experience do much for me. Among the firsters, you have to respect Admiral Sol (#7), who is by average debut sire Solomini from more of a turf family, but everything John Ortiz is sending out seems to be live. I could also use Game and Blue (#8), whose trainer Tom Morley doesn't often win on debut but has been very live in general over the past few weeks. She's out of a stakes winning dam and shows some quick works.

RACE 5

The key players in this maiden claimer are exiting the Nov. 16 race at this level won by the class-dropping Metatron. Good Cop (#6) was off a bit awkwardly and conservatively ridden in the early stages that day. He faded a bit late to finish third, but he arguably could have been second with a slightly better trip. He's burned some money, but now he's first off the claim for Linda Rice. She actually doesn't have great stats claiming maidens, but his tactical speed should play well here. Lucky Dragon (#1) was fourth in that same race last time after getting an aggressive ride early. He figures to take back from an inside post here, and that may produce a better finish. I'll try one of the first time starters, Saint Solomon (#8). As noted above, John Ortiz has been sending out nothing but live runners lately in New York. He only cost $15k at auction last year, but he looked like a route type in that 10 3/5 drill back then. John Ortiz can win with a firster going long, and Reylu Gutierrez gets live mounts from this barn.

RACE 6

I'll be interested to see how the public assesses the New York-bred With the Angels (#6) in this Garland of Roses. She beat weaker in her return two back, and then lost as a heavy favorite last time despite getting a good trip. She may move forward third off a layoff, but she figures to be overbet given the rider switch to Flavien Prat and her general popularity. Fellow New York-bred Sunday Girl (#5) is more appealing at a bigger price. She was overbet last time over a sloppy track that she has never handled. She can contend here if running as well as she did two back in the Iroquois, and cutting back to 6 furlongs should suit her. Patricia Ann (#2) arguably comes into this race with the best recent form of all, having finished second in a pair of open company stakes races behind talented rivals like R Disaster and Weigh the Risks, either of which would be favored here. I just have some concern that she's drawn inside this time with plenty of speed to her right. My top pick is Tricky Temper (#7), who ran some dirt races this summer that would make her competitive at this level. She finished a distant second behind the classy My Mane Squeeze in the Johnstone, but no one was getting close to the well-meant winner that day. She followed that up with an easy allowance score before trying Grade 2 foes in the Presque Isle Downs Masters on synthetic. She handled the new surface pretty well, checking in third with a career-best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She didn't fare as well in her next synthetic start at Woodbine, but she got badly steadied into the far turn of that race. Now she's getting back on dirt where her form is proven, and her versatile running style should allow her to take advantage of this outside draw.

RACE 7

I didn't have much interest in getting too creative in this Comely. Fully Subscribed (#6) is the horse to beat and a deserving favorite. The only real knock against her is that her form is totally exposed coming off that blowout victory over course and distance in the Mother Goose last time. This is a race of comparable quality, and she's going to be a much shorter price than she was that day as Flavien Prat gets aboard. She's the most likely winner, but I think the difference in price makes likely second choice Kappa Kappa (#5) a better bet. I know she looks like more of a sprinter at first glance, but she did not get the best trip when she tried two turns for the first time back in August. She was hung very wide from the start and made an early move before flattening out. She has since improved, and beat a field of similar quality to this one when she upset the Raven Run last time. She'll be a fraction of the price she was that day, but she looks like the main speed stretching out, and John Velazquez is an expert at nursing these types along.

RACE 8

This race is a redraw from that Nov. 30 cancelled card. The main difference between that spot and this one is that Itwillbefun (#9) and Kyle's Mom (#7) weren't originally entered and they could now go off as the two favorites. I don't love the form of either one, and Itwillbefun in particular figures to get overbet with Flavien Prat riding. She's dangerous as a dropdown, but she's also underachieved for top barns. Spirit of Esther (#1) showed speed and faded at this level last time, and that's been her pattern over the last several starts. Her lone career victory was earned going a mile on dirt, but that was a Wilson Chute race at Saratoga, a different sort of affair than this conventional one-turn mile. She's tried this distance at Aqueduct a number of times and just seems to lack finishing ability over this configuration. The horse coming back in this spot who achieved the best result in that Nov. 12 race is 17-1 runner-up That'sthefactjack (#8). She won't be nearly as generous a price this time coming off that career-best result. She had gotten up for third at a similar price in August at Saratoga, so it's not as if that recent improvement came out of nowhere. Yet she's still hard to take as one of the shorter prices given her 1 for 23 career record and overall lack of consistency. I would rather take a shot with Calling an Audible (#7), who also has an undesirable 1 for 20 career record. At least she earned that victory just two starts back over this track, and the victory was flattered when runner-up Alyvia Mavis came back to win on Saturday. She's only made one start against winners and that came in a speed-dominated race sprinting at this level last time. She figures to be more engaged stretching back out in distance, and she has a few recent speed figures that suggest she's fast enough to beat this group.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

My primary take on this race is that I will try to beat Brave Buck (#5), who figures to take money having won 2 of his last 3 starts. However, he won an incident-marred race last time and is subtly stepping up in class as he tries open claiming company. Cathedral Beach (#2) made this drop down to the $10k level last time where he ran into heavy favorite Master of Arms. He significantly bobbled after the start and did well to close for third. He would be dangerous if he could show more early speed, as he has done in the past. I originally had O P Firecracker (#3) on top, but the scratch of a main pace player could hurt his chances, since he needs some pace to develop. He's turning back to a sprint for the first time in years. While he has concentrated almost exclusively on routes lately, he might have the versatility for this turnback based on some early races. He makes his first start off the claim for Greg Sacco, who does quite well off the claim and with turnbacks. After scratches, I want to upgrade For Some Reason (#7). This gelding may now play out as the controlling speed from his advantageous outside draw in a small field. He kept better company in most of his recent starts at the $12,500 level, and only dropped down to a bottom-level $10k claimer last time. He was unable to make a clear lead that day, dueling inside before fading at 7 furlongs, which is a tad too far for him. He's better at this 6-furlong distance, and goes out for underrated connections.

RACE 2

There are some intriguing runners with experience in this field, though I'm not sure how much upside many of them possess. The horse with experience who seems like the best candidate to step forward again is Stream It (#4), who has been a work in progress for Linda Rice. He clearly needed his sprint debut, then failed to handle turf, but he showed some signs of talent when he finally got into a dirt route last time. He didn't break well, but recovered to make a middle move before settling for third behind Remsen contender Courting. He has to break better this time. The others with starts under their belts don't do quite so much for me. I'm not typically looking to take Chad Brown first time starters, but I get the sense that Mr. Miracle (#7) may be pretty talented. He had looked like a promising sort working at Saratoga this summer before going to the sidelines. He has since returned to the worktab, drilling in company with recent 103 Beyer maiden winner Time to Win on Nov. 14 and Remsen favorite Paladin on Nov. 21. His Grade 1-placed dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Stormello, and Chad Brown does have some success debuting horses over a mile on dirt at Aqueduct.

RACE 3

This Demoiselle didn't come up nearly as deep as its male counterpart later in the day. Some may be skeptical of the fact that likely favorite Zany (#3) debuted in Florida as opposed to New York or Kentucky, but she won pretty impressively down there and the race was validated by runbacks. This daughter of American Pharoah is bred to get added ground and physically looks and moves like a horse who should appreciate more distance. It's a pretty significant stretch-out to 9 furlongs, but she's not catching a particularly tough field. I couldn't look past her.

RACE 4

Army Gal (#2) seems like a fairly convincing favorite in this first-level allowance. She faced a tougher field in her first attempt at this condition last time. She didn't even run that badly getting held up in traffic on the turn before settling for third behind the stakes-quality Senza Parole. She's the horse to beat, and her versatile running style makes her dangerous in a race that features plenty of speed. The other horse that intrigues me at a bigger price is Meg's Foxy Grey (#7), who continues to move up in class since the claim by Michelle Nevin. She was second in a pretty strong claiming race back in October, and then validated that improvement with a hard-fought victory against starter allowance foes last time. She's a relatively robust grey filly who looks like she has the physical ability to continue her ascent against tougher company. I also like that she's drawn outside, so she shouldn't be as forced to go forward as she was last time.

RACE 5

Graded stakes winner El Grande O (#1) regained top form second off the layoff last time, and a repeat of that effort will obviously make him tough as he steps back up into stakes company. I just don't love that he draws the rail for the third time in a row. He has more tactical speed than he's displayed in those races, but he may get shuffled back from the inside if Flavien Prat isn't aggressive. There just isn't much speed in this race, and Just Beat the Odds (#4) looks like he should have an opportunity to control up front. He was impressive winning off a similar layoff in March of this year, and then he wasn't ridden aggressively enough when wired in April. He obviously has his share of issues to have missed so much time, but Greg Sacco has great stats off layoffs of this type.

RACE 6

This is a tough race to wrap your head around since so many of the contenders have only raced on turf. Among those with dirt form, Alyvia Mavis (#10) is the most convincing based on her recent nose loss at this level. It's just a little hard to take a short price on an 0 for 23 maiden. I'll get a little more creative with Charmeuse (#1), who makes just the third dirt start of her career, and only her second in a sprint. She showed speed and faded in a debut that she clearly needed. She proved she's not a turf horse, and then she was very wide when she got back on dirt last time. She gets a subtle rider upgrade to journeyman Jose Gomez, and should be picking up pieces as the turf horses fall apart.

RACE 7

Life and Times (#6) will obviously be too tough for this field to handle if he runs back to his debut effort. How strong was that race? Well, the horses he defeated by nearly 6 lengths, Time to Win and Salvation, returned to finish first and second with Beyers of 103 and 93 in their subsequent starts. Accordingly, Beyer has revised Life and Times's debut win up to 104. All of those factors are going to attract even more support in his direction, and I just have some questions about whether he can reproduce that effort. Todd Pletcher doesn't have great stats with horses coming off maiden wins in routes, and it's not like this horse was expected to do much going off at 11-1. The scratch of a main pace rival does aid his chances, but he's going to be an awfully short price. Dreamlike (#10) is the alternative I prefer after he closed well into a slow pace last time out. He never attained comfortable position that day, but I liked the way he rallied through kickback while never fully clear. It feels like's moving forward in Rice's barn, and he should be well served by turning back in a race that features more pace. Waitlist (#2) might have run even better in that same Nov. 8 race, since he was off slowly and had to make a wider move into contention. He's another who has handled a mile in the past. I know that neither of these love to win races, but Waitlist in particular has had his fair share of excuses through recent starts.

RACE 8

This NYSS Fifth Avenue division seems much more competitive than the Great White Way for the males. The money figures to be spread around, but I do expect Hot Currency (#10) to be the public choice, and I believe she's a legitimate favorite. She improved with the addition of blinkers and some added distance last time, contesting an honest pace before drawing off convincingly. She's been well regarded from the start, and is finally living up to that potential. There's an abundance of speed in here, so I want to find some horses that can rally from off the pace. I'm not sure that Braverthanubelieve (#8) falls into that category, but I do think she's more versatile than the style she displayed on debut. She stalked a slow pace and finished well to hold off an experienced rival. The horse that interests me even more coming out of that race is maiden Kaz Farm Girl (#4), who checked in a non-threatening fifth. She has to progress quite a bit from that debut run, but she had legitimate excuses. She was taken up and lost position soon after the start, then made a middle move into contention at the half, taking plenty of kickback before the leaders sprinted away from her. The pace and race flow were totally against her, but she figures to get a much more favorable setup this time.

RACE 9

This Remsen is easily the most intriguing race on the whole card, with several of these 2-year-olds looking like potential Derby prospects. A favorable draw and popular connections are likely to make Paladin (#2) the favorite even though he didn't cross the wire first in his lone start. He was award that victory by the stewards, but nevertheless ran a winning race and a pretty fast speed figure. He has the profile of a horse who should relish this distance, but so do others who will offer better value. Out of that Oct. 17 maiden event, I would rather take Renegade (#9). He got pushed in at the start and had to make up ground down the backstretch before waiting for room at the quarter pole. I really liked the way he accelerated once he found a path. This horse is bred to handle the distance, and shows all of the attributes of a horse who should be able to work out a trip for himself regardless of the flow. The only issue is that he appeared to miss a workout or two on the way into this race, but I'll assume he's ready if he runs. Pletcher's other horse Courting (#6) merits respect as another who should appreciate the added distance. He hasn't yet run fast, but there's obviously room for improvement after he's raced a bit greenly in his first two starts. We'll just have to see if he can put it all together at this level. I also wouldn't discount Igniter (#7), who may be the one who slips through the cracks on the tote board. He has some stamina questions to answer as a son of Violence, but he won a pretty tough maiden race last time. I liked the fight he displayed to battle back between horses, and his 111 TiemformUS Speed Figure is the highest of anyone in this field. Unlike Renegade, he hasn't missed a beat in his preparation.

RACE 10

The two likely favorites in this Cigar Mile are drawn outside and both possess early speed. There will probably be a little more intention to send Phileas Fogg (#6) to the lead, since he's generally run his best races from the front end. He's the class of this field based on his form over the past several months, but all of those races came around two turns. He did handle a one-turn mile over this course just over a year ago, but not at this level. Gustavo Rodriguez is adding a set of blinkers to try to get him back to the winner's circle, but this is not a strong move for the barn. I prefer him to main rival Bishops Bay (#7), who has generally beaten slightly weaker company in his recent victories. He is remarkably consistent, only finishing outside the exacta once in 12 starts, but I wasn't terribly impressed by his win in the local prep for this. The presence of longshot Mika (#2) has to be as an early factor, since he figures to get sent forward from the inside. I'm hopeful that enough pace will develop to set up for Crazy Mason (#4). This closing sprinter did improve significantly when his connections cut him back in distance after he wasn't progressing in route races earlier in his career. However, he may have the right toolset to handle going longer now that he's matured. He just get so badly outrun in the early stages of his sprint races, especially going as short as 6 furlongs, such as in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby earlier this year. He's been at his best going 7 furlongs, a distance over which he won the Grade 2 Carter and placed in the Grade 1 Forego. A one-turn mile isn't so different from that extended sprint distance, and his connections have justifiably been targeting this race since the summer. I believe he's as likely to win this race as anyone, and he figures to be the third choice.

RACE 11

I'm not really against Parker Boone (#2) here. He didn't beat much on debut, but it doesn’t really matter given the gaps behind him at the end. Horses have actually come back to validated the speed figure he earned, and Butch Reid can get horses to reproduce their Parx form at NYRA. There is some other speed in here, but not nearly as much as there is in the filly division earlier. If the favorite gets beaten, I think it could be a maiden that takes him down. The best closer of those might be Sunday Boy (#9), though he would really need the pace to come apart. He closed well going a mile last time and may appreciate the slight turnback. The maiden I really want to bet as the alternative to the favorite is Combat Mission (#13). He has run into some pretty tough maiden fields so far, including when he was hardly disgraced in that very salty Bravaro maiden event two back. He got an aggressive ride that day and understandably faded. They tried rating tactics last time and he raced a bit greenly on the turn before staying on mildly. He strikes me as a horse that is still figuring it out, and the addition of blinkers may help it all come together. He's drawn well outside of trouble and should be a square price.