TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

The two favorites appear to have it in the opener. It's a choice between the in-form Coquito (#1) and the off-form Despo's Dream (#6). Yet Coquito is a tad overexposed after beating up on just 2 rivals in her victory at this level last time whereas Despo's Dream is getting significant class relief dropping out of some tougher claiming and starter races. I give preference to the Rice runner, but it's hardly a strong opinion to start off the day.

RACE 2

Turf race is somewhat in jeopardy with rain in the forecast, but there isn't very much volume predicted so perhaps two or more can stay on. If this stays on grass, Integration (#1) is the deserving favorite based on his overall body of work. He's multiple Grade 1 placed and a Grade 2 winner over this course. However, it's been over a year since he's visited the winner's circle, which is why he's eligible for this condition. He was compromised by a slow pace at Keeneland last time and can do better here with a little added ground. I'll give slight preference to the up and comer Risk Tolerance (#3), but he will need to take another step forward to upset the favorite. He closed decently last time over a mile, but his effort two back at Gulfstream was more encouraging, as he came from far back at the head of the lane to just miss. He's always been bred to handle added ground, and Flavien Prat should ride him for early position in a race lacking any speed. I also think Big Blue Line (#5) is a candidate to go forward from the outside and potential lead the field early. He was ridden for speed last time but wasn't quick enough to get there going a mile and then got rank at the back. I like him going longer on turf, but I'm not quite sure that he's still good enough to beat a field like this.

RACE 3

My primary opinion on this race is that I didn't want Miguel Clement's pair of runners coming off layoffs. Bettrluckythangood (#2) did run reasonably well in his lone attempt at this distance last year, but his campaign was abbreviated and he's getting no pace assistance in this return race. I Am I Said (#5) seemingly has more upside, but he beat a pretty weak field when he last won at Newmarket nearly a year ago. His overall quality is tough to peg, and he's another who doesn't appear to possess much speed. Mutaawid (#6) is the proven option with recency, having just run a solid fifth to split the field against a tougher group at Keeneland last time. He's dropping slightly as he runs for the optional tag here. He's the horse to beat, but I would take a shot with Miztertonic (#3) if he is indeed the fourth choice in the wagering. He's only gone this far once before, and he clearly handled the added ground, only failing to win because of navigating traffic. Keri Brion can have horses ready to fire fresh, and Joel Rosario has ridden this one well before.

RACE 4

The two favorites don't exactly give me a ton of confidence. Helen's Revenge (#6) has padded her résumé by beating up on much weaker fields recently. This is a pretty significant step up in class for her, though she is clearly in the best form of any of these. It's also worth watching the track condition, as she's never run well over a wet surface. Tough Street (#7)has a higher ceiling, but it's hard to know what to expect as she makes her first start since leaving the Chad Brown barn off a significant layoff. She's a 7-year-old now, so it's fair to wonder if her best days are behind her. Howling Wind (#4) is a logical alternative based on her races from the winter. She hasn't run quite as well in two starts since stepping up to this level, but she was stuck wide last time. My top pick is City Blocks (#1), who figures to be the best price. She finished behind Howling Wind in that Naïve Melody race at the level, but she was off slowly and was moving up widest of all on the far turn. She has to prove she can still break from the gate, as she's gotten off poorly in both starts since returning from a layoff this spring. However, she's reunited with her last winning jockey Ricardo Santana and would be dangerous if she can get early position from the rail.

RACE 5

There have to be some questions around White Smoke Rising (#7) after he's needed so much time since that encouraging debut performance. He was entered to run on April 25 but was a regulatory vet scratch. Now he's back in the entries with a recent workout showing, but there have obviously been some issues along the way. His debut speed figures are perhaps slightly inflated based on the subsequent exploits of those involved, but he's still the one to beat. Onepac (#1) ran pretty well off the layoff last time, overcoming a poor start to get up for third behind a pretty talented winner. He has to move forward again to beat his main rival, but the potential is there for him to do so. Chad Brown sends out a couple of first time starters, interestingly both Klaravich owned. Flavien Prat lands on Disparate Impact (#4), which will pull some money in his direction, but the stats point here as well. Chad Brown is 10 for 20 (50%, $3.12 ROI) with 4-year-old and up first time starters on dirt over the last 5 years. It's usually a good sign when these older horses eventually make it to the races at this level since it's required some perseverance – in this case, 43 published workouts!

RACE 6

If this high-priced maiden claimer stays on turf, I probably don't have much interest in betting it. I couldn't come up with a clever opinion and landed on the ML favorite Loveontheleftbank (#6). I obviously don't love that she's still a maiden after 6 starts, but she's run reasonably well in her recent efforts at Tampa. She just missed in a blanket finish two back, a race from which Marketplaceofideas and Pop Art both came back to win. She lost to the latter last time, but was compromised by a slow pace and actually finished well considering the deficit she had to make up. She should win here if any pace develops. Yet that scenario is somewhat murky, making Laylani Lou (#9) a horse that merits consideration as the possible pacesetter. I don't love her turf form from last year, but she did face better fields than this and now drops in for a tag for the first time. I also think Battle Winner (#3) could ran better than her debut race here last month. She was caught behind a glacial early pace and was ridden like a horse who probably was just out for experience. This barn does better after a start anyway.

RACE 7

Ten Cent Town (#3) is clearly the horse to beat as he attempts to win his second race in a row and fourth in his last six starts. He's already in strong form, and now he's making his first start off the claim for Brad Cox. That trainer change is certainly going to pull more wagering dollars in his direction, but doesn't necessarily make him a good bet. While Cox wins at a high percentage off the claim, the public often overestimates how much these horses improve. Over the last 2 years, he is 16 for 54 (30%) first off the claim at NYRA tracks, but his ROI is just $1.34. In the last year alone, that ROI drops to $0.80 with new acquisitions. I see a couple of viable alternatives to this favorite. One of those is Disarmed (#7), who has run races in his past that are superior to the recent efforts of Ten Cent Town. However, he has to prove that he's still capable of producing his best form. He failed to hit the board in two starts over the winter, but he broke slowly both times. He's best when he can attain forward early position. The same goes for my top pick, Clancy Fancy (#4). I thought this horse had a chance to rebound from some disappointing efforts when he made his first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci last time. Yet he's another horse who does his best work from the front end, and Manny Franco didn't seem interested in making full use of his early speed. He rated him just off the pace, but the horse still responded well in the stretch, staying on for fourth to lose by just over a length. Now he's getting a rider switch to Silvestre Gonzalez, who is generally used by these connections when they want to tap into a horse's speed. Kantarmaci and Gonzalez are 12 for 50 (24%, $3.06 ROI) when teaming up on the NYRA circuit in recent years.

RACE 8

It's hard to trust Jet Off (#2) coming back on short rest after he ran so poorly as the odds-on favorite here last week. He probably will prefer going a bit farther, and looks like the lone speed on paper. However, his jockey has been known not to take advantage of those situations in the past. Dare Defying (#5) goes out for a barn that doesn't do well with first time turfers, but those stats generally weren't compiled for assistant Jimmy Jerkens in New York. This horse has plenty of turf in his pedigree, and looked like one that should handle it in his replays. My top pick is Bold Statement (#6), who hasn't shown much in three prior turf starts but may be better than his last result suggests. He got hung very wide on the far turn and was pushed out even further by some drifting foes approaching the quarter pole. He had every right to flatten out late. It's unclear how much ability he has, but he does have a right to move forward second off the layoff. Jorge Duarte is 11 for 58 ($2.66 ROI) second off 120 to 360 day layoffs over 5 years.