TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

I don't trust No Filter (#2), who figures to be one of the favorites off his debut effort last October. Claimed out of that race, he has struggled to get back to the races for new connections. He was entered twice over the winter on days that were cancelled and now doesn't resurface in the entries until three months later while also dropping in class. I have a little more faith in Counter Move (#6), who has a recency edge and a body of work that makes him the horse to beat in this spot. He ran pretty well last time considering that he broke a step slowly and had to adapt to a new running style. I would just much rather take the third-place finisher from that Mar. 20 affair at a better price. Sports Hero (#5) was sent forward early to contest a fast pace. He tired a bit late but did fight gamely into the last furlong. He's been steadily improving, and I think turning back to 6 furlongs will suit him now that he's refined his early speed.

RACE 2

Blossoming Erudite (#2) has to be considered the horse to beat as she gets back to her favorite track and distance. Her two victories from last fall that could beat this group if she reproduces them. Among her main rivals is Soloshot (#7), who finally gets back on turf after a winter of dirt racing. She actually performed a lot better than I would have expected on dirt, which might speak to her current form. It's been a while since she's won a race, but she ran better than it looks in a few turf starts last year and has upside first off the claim for Amelia Green. At similar prices, I just have a little more interest in betting Just Add Water (#5), who returns from a layoff for Chad Summers. I thought this filly showed some potential last year up at Saratoga. She was much the best when she won on July 20 after getting off to a poor start. She then got a wide trip when she lost at this level in August before going to the sidelines. It seems like she's training well for her return.

RACE 3

I didn't want to settle for a short price on Marketplaceofideas (#1), who has been mildly disappointing considering that she's still a maiden after three starts. She was bet strongly on debut and just missed despite getting a perfect trip. Upon returning this winter, she ran fine in a couple of races in Florida but didn't necessarily show any progression. Between the Chad Brown duo, I much prefer Mistborn (#5), who seemingly has more upside as a second-time starting 3-year-old. Chad is 38 for 112 (34%, $2.94 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf routes at NYRA over 5 years. Furthermore, this filly didn't get an ideal trip on debut. She was off a step slowly and then rated behind a slow pace. Her jockey then swung her extremely wide when attempting to rally on the far turn, never putting her in position to be effective. She's trained well since that race and looks ready to step forward. I also think Deference (#3) is another second time starter who can improve on her debut. The pace of that race may not look that fast, but it was coming apart late, and she should benefit from that experience.

RACE 4

Pippa Adds (#4) figures to take money after facing a better field on debut down at Gulfstream. Winner Sippin Pretty has shown talent and returned to easily win an allowance race next time out. This Pletcher trainee showed speed and faded, and is bred to improve as a half-sister to Grade 3 route winner Accelerize. Her main rival on paper is Saratoga Party (#1), who ran a race that will beat this field when she made her second start last October. She's seemingly regressed since then, but she had valid excuses in both subsequent starts. She got a traffic-filled trip on Dec. 27 and then was wide against a rail bias on Feb. 4. I prefer her of the two favorites, but I'm going in a different direction. First time starter Flying Hawley (#6) strikes me as a filly with some talent. She's going out for Shug McGaughey, who isn't known for winning on debut. Yet he is a respectable 6 for 38 ($1.88 ROI) with 3YO+ firsters in dirt sprints over 5 years. This daughter of Curlin out of Grade 2 route winner Vault looks all distance, so debuting at 7 furlongs makes sense. The only workout video available is her March 22 gate drill where she was slow into stride before easily catching her workmate and then galloping out well ahead under mild encouragement.

RACE 5

As far as top picks are concerned, I had trouble looking past the logical contenders. On the Ledge (#1) owns the best turf speed figure in the field. I don't fully trust him to run his best race off the layoff, and he's drawn a tough inside post position in a race that features plenty of other speed. I prefer the upside of Funny Factor (#5) as he returns from a layoff this ran well in all of his turf sprints last year, particularly that Saratoga maiden score. I’m not sure that he really wants to go a mile, but he still almost held on in the Notebook Stakes last November despite racing wide throughout. He appears to be working well for his return and should beat this field if he's stepped forward at all. The one bomb that I would try to get into the mix somewhere underneath is Take a Stance (#2). This is a turf horse who clearly needed his lone run over this surface last fall. He didn't get ridden to win that day, and should do better returning to this surface as a more mature 3-year-old.

RACE 6

Neither favorite is easy to trust in this conditioned claimer. Sequential (#5) has occasionally run races that make him too tough for this field to handle, but he's totally unreliable and it's hard to know what to expect now that he's claimed away from Linda Rice. She sends out that one's main rival Magnanimous Max (#6), who makes his first start off the claim following a maiden win in January. I did like that victory as he beat a next-out winner despite drifting to a dead rail late. However, he's been entered and scratched a couple of times since then, so there have seemingly been some issues getting him back to the races. I definitely don't want Salming (#3), who travels well and then lacks finish when called upon, indicative of a horse that doesn't want to route on dirt. He also has consistent gate issues. I'll instead bet on First Pitch (#4), who gets needed class relief after going off at huge prices in a series of allowance races. I know his last race looks terrible, but he was never asked for much at any point while basically eased that day. His prior starts really aren't that bad, especially considering that he had some issues at the start two back. He definitely wants a mile, and he gets an interesting rider upgrade to Edgard Zayas for a hot barn.

RACE 7

I don't have a major knock against Pair of Socks (#1), who is arguably the horse to beat after finishing in a tougher spot at this level with some minor trouble last time. He also just missed two back when not getting the best ride, overcommitting to the inside path. He fits here, but I get the feeling we've already seen the best he has to offer and others may have more upside. That's seemingly true of Bostontonian (#2), who returns from a layoff for Wesley Ward. He had a valid excuse in his loss out at the Breeders' Cup meet last November, and prior to that he had been undefeated. He must get a bit faster, but he looks like the controlling speed. Ward is also 11 for 19 (58%, $3.42 ROI) coming off 90+ day layoffs at NYRA over the last 5 year, and this gelding has been training well at Keeneland. If I'm going to try to beat him, I'll do it with Private Desire (#7) at a price. His last race was underrated by Beyer, and the 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure seems more in line with what the field should have earned. The pace was very fast, which made the final time slower. Yet this horse was contesting that pace early and was game to hold second behind Illuminare, who won next time out at Keeneland. This gelding has gone through a few different barns, but he once had real ability and seems to be coming back around for Tom Morley. I like the outside post for a horse who wants a forward trip.

RACE 8

I don't have a major problem with Aperitif (#8), who seems like the horse to beat based on her turf sprint efforts from last year. However, she is returning from a layoff and it's unclear if she'll be ready to return to that level in her first start off the bench. She is facing several 3-year-olds with more upside, including the expensive auction purchase Saint Margaret (#2). This filly ran well in her debut last summer at Saratoga, closing into a slow pace to get up for third. She then was far more aggressively ridden after a sharp start put in her in front when she tried this 6-furlong distance in October. The pace was fast, and she understandably tired late as the race came apart. She figures to have improved during the time away and seems to be working well for her return. I slightly prefer another 3-year-old. Daylight Dreamer (#4) gets on turf for the first time after taking some money in her dirt debut in February. While she doesn't have that much turf pedigree on her dam's side, she is sired by excellent turf sprinter Leinster. So far the best progeny by this young sire have generally excelled in turf sprints, so I expect this filly to move forward as she switches surfaces. She ran better than it looks on debut, racing in traffic early and getting shuffled back into the far turn. I would expect her to show more speed this time.