TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I don't have much clever to say here. Geostoblame (#2) is taking an enormous class drop after facing the likes of Paladin and Renegade, then Ottinho and Hadrian's Wall, all runners who appear to have stakes-level talent. He wasn't particularly competitive in either of those dirt races, but he still earned speed figures that make him competitive here despite basically getting eased across the wire. At this level he's supposed to be tough. His main rival Big Brooklyn (#6) was against the track last time, but he's been all out to run the same speed figures that Geostoblame has earned against much tougher.

RACE 2

I'm not so confident in either favorite in this low-level conditioned claimer. Both Mezcalifornia (#3) and Current Climate (#5) are dropping in class with questions to answer. The drop for the former is a little more concerning, since she was competitive against tougher company in Kentucky before the layoff. The drop makes more sense with Current Climate, since Linda Rice isn't afraid to make these aggressive class drops with recent acquisitions. She was chasing outside against a rail bias last time, but I still wonder if she's seen better days. I'll try to beat this pair with Carolina Smokeshow (#1). She ran well to win first off the claim for these connections two back, and was hardly disgraced against a tougher starter allowance field last time. She's supposed to attain forward position from the rail but doesn't need the lead to be successful.

RACE 3

I know he'll probably be the favorite, but I thought Emerald Forest (#4) ran great for this level last time and would be tough right back in what looks like a slightly softer spot. He was never on the rail chasing outside against the bias and still ran on well for second while well clear of the rest. His form has come back around for Charlton Baker and he might not be as short a price as he otherwise would be with this apprentice aboard. My Man Matty (#5) is the one they all have to catch, but his last race is obviously concerning, and I wonder if all the issues are finally catching up with this lightly raced 8-year-old. He can still win here, but I wouldn't want to take too short a price. Canyouhearmerunnin (#3) was wide against the bias and ran on decently last time, but his lack of early speed is a minor concern again here.

RACE 4

Noguchi (#3) makes sense on paper, but he's harder to like when you watch his races. He was riding a strong rail bias last time and still couldn't hold off his stablemate. The winner of that race may be pretty good, but he was far superior given his against the bias trip. I prefer horses coming out of other races. Both horses exiting the Feb. 5 race won by Seeker's Hope are mildly appealing. Projectability (#7) had the tougher trip, making a wide move against the rail bias after a poor start. However, Throsness (#2) is the one who seems better suited to stretching back out to a mile. Both can win, but I slightly prefer Lucky Dragon (#5). He drops down out of some tougher New York-bred affairs, and has proven that he can get this distance. He's been freshened slightly since an early winter campaign and has the tactical speed to be forward throughout.

RACE 5

I don't have a strong argument against Will of a Womanne (#10), who makes her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. Her dirt sprints just make her superior to this field, and I won't be too hard on her for failing to get a mile over a deep and tiring surface last time out. Sassy Sats (#4) is the other horse for me, but she was no match for a gate to wire winner despite showing speed over a track that was carrying forward horses.

RACE 6

If I could trust that Turn and Count (#3) would finally keep a straight course, he would be pretty appealing in this spot. However, he was disqualified out of a victory two back for lugging in through the lane, and he arguably would have been disqualified again last time had he won the head bob since he again fouled the horse alongside him. He actually ran really well before that point, since he made a wide move against the rail bias. They are finally putting blinkers, but it's unclear if that will solve the problem. Carvellian Quest(#1) and Sergeant Capps (#9) seem like the obvious rivals with early speed. The former was forward in a speed-dominated race last time, but he was dueling outside over a rail-biased surface so it seems like a legitimate effort. I just think the form of Sergeant Capps is a little more obscured, since he was wide against biases twice in a row. I don't love that he's running for the third time in just 24 days, but he is in better form than it appears for the new connections. My top pick is House United (#5), who needs those two to hook up early, since he wants to close from just off the pace. He ran pretty well when closing for second behind next-out winner Cool Andy last time, and he was too close to the pace when trying this level two back. I don't love that it's been a while since he's won, but he figures to be a fair price here. This jockey doesn't really get bet but has given some decent closing rides lately.

RACE 7

I'm not trying to beat likely favorite With the Angels (#7) in the Correction. She had to settle for second behind today's rival Hold Your Breath (#1) when the two met in the Garland of Roses two back, but Hold Your Breath had all the best of it setting a slow pace on an uncontested lead that day. With the Angels was conservatively ridden to let that foe go early and was unable to reel her in late despite staying on well for second. Since then With the Angels has come back with an impressive allowance win. The form of that race was flattered when the runner-up returned to win with an improved speed figure. She's drawn perfectly outside, and this time there is other speed to keep her main rival company up front. The other horse I want is Sunday Girl (#6), who faded to fourth behind those two in the Garland of Roses. She got shuffled back in the early stages and made a wide premature move on the turn before flattening out. She's been freshened since that result and has worked well for her return to the races. I expect her to perform better this time, but I tend to think that With the Angels is just the stronger finisher at this stage of their careers.

RACE 8

I don't want any part of Island Charm (#8), who rode the rail bias when finishing second at the maiden special weight level last time. That was a pretty weak race anyway, and her form isn't as good as it looks on paper. I much prefer fellow maiden special weight dropper Queen Sally (#5), who ran respectably against a very tough field two back, and then was wide against a bias last time. She's bred to stretch out as a daughter of route influence Solomini, and she has the stride length of one who should appreciate added ground. The other horse I want to use is My First Dinah (#2), who was even wider in that same Feb. 6 race last time. She earned her best speed figure going this distance two back, and she's also getting some minor class relief. The obvious drawback is the low percentage barn, but at least she's getting a rider upgrade for this.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I don't have a major argument against Bounty Banker (#5), who has run speed figures that can win at this level in both prior starts. He didn't have the easiest trip on debut and then closed strongly outside over a rail-biased course last time despite steadying slightly at the quarter pole. He's probably going to win here, but this came up a pretty interesting field for this time of year. There are a few first time starters to consider, including the well-bred Sfumato (#6), who appears to be working well for Bill Mott. Bargain Purchase (#7), debuts for Chad Brown and Klaravich, who are 10 for 32 (31%, $2.82 ROI) with 3YO first time starters on dirt at Aqueduct over 5 years. I'm going in a different direction with another horse with experience. Nowucme Nowudont (#3) didn't get much of a speed figure for his turf debut last summer at Saratoga, but that race may have been a bit better than it looks. Runner-up Lawyer Mason came back to win and was subsequently competitive against stakes company. This Maker trainee was trying to close into a very slow pace after getting away slowly, so he performed even better than the result suggests. He doesn't strike me as purely a turf horse, and his pedigree actually leans much more towards dirt.

RACE 2

I'm not thrilled with Interstatelovesong (#5), who wasn't right on the rail in the Ruthless but still benefited from the bias staying forward and inside for much of her trip. The top two in that race both earned career-best speed figures that need some validation. I prefer a couple of the Florida shippers. The one to beat appears to be Paradise (#3), who beat a decent rival that came back to win when she broke her maiden last time at Gulfstream. She has the tactical speed to be forward, and I like the gameness that she displayed from off the pace in her debut going shorter. She'll likely go favored, but I do think she's the most likely winner. Nycon (#1) is the other horse for me, but she is a little slow. Her maiden win was visually impressive, but that was a bad field, and I thought she should have won the Cash Run last time.

RACE 3

This allowance is totally wide open, as cases can be made for just about everyone. I wanted to avoid all of the speed horses drawn down inside, and preferred those with outside posts. Howling Wind (#7) is arguably in the best form after gaining some consistency in recent starts. However, she did get a pretty good trip when spending time on the rail last time. Redwineandwhiskey (#6) was against that same track bias on Feb. 5 and deserves a pass for that lackluster effort. She ran better than it looks two back when she stumbled badly at the start and ran on well despite spending some time inside over a dead rail surface. She may be slightly more suited to a wet track, but she has a right to run better here. Another horse I want to use is Carol T (#8), who chased Howling Wind in a claiming race last time. She was uncharacteristically close to the pace before essentially getting pulled up two back, so I won't be too hard on her for that effort. She has some races in her that make her competitive at this level. 

RACE 4

One Nine Hundred (#2) will probably wire this field at a short price, but I have some reservations about him running as well as he did last time. The worst effort of his career came in the one race he was unable to use Lasix last spring, and he's coming off Lasix again here. At a very short price, I'm willing to take him on with Full Moon Madness (#5). I think the outside draw could be key for a horse who doesn't always break that well. He's cutting back slightly after failing to finish at 6 1/2 furlongs last time, and two back he was never in a comfortable spot when pulling between horses. His form hasn't been nearly as sharp as when he won this last year, but perhaps he can rebound with a better trip.

RACE 5

I don't have a clever take on this race. One of the two favorites is likely to win, and I give slight preference to dropdownHours in a Day (#4). He's getting significant class relief as he makes his third start off a layoff for Linda Rice. Skylander (#9) is his main rival, but I thought he got a pretty good trip when spending a significant amount of time on the gold rail last time before angling out in the stretch. He would have to improve slightly off the claim for Wayne Potts.

RACE 6

Among those with experience, my primary take is that I don't want Sugartown Sweetie (#12), who took advantage of the track bias last time when riding the rail to a second-place finish. First time starters are likely to attract plenty of support. Daylight Dreamer (#4) has more of a turf profile being by Leinster, but she may be fast as a $150k yearling who has been working forwardly in the mornings. The firster who interests me most is Atira (#5), by excellent debut sire Yaupon from the female family of graded stakes winning sprinter Joking. Her workouts are fairly modest, but Tom Morley can win on debut.

RACE 7

All of the contenders in this New York-bred allowance race have their flaws. I'm not interested in taking a short price on Calling Card (#5), who has been a massive disappointment ever since winning by 17 lengths over this track as a 2-year-old. His form has steadily declined, and I have little confidence that turning back to a shorter distance suits him. I'm even less enamored with Maker's other horse Fireballin (#2), who has been unable to finish off his races ever since his debut and completely shut down after just 3 furlongs in his return last time. Sir Kartrite (#9) is a little more appealing since he actually did some running despite racing 3-wide against the rail bias last time. I don't love his overall form, but he has run a couple of races that would make him tough against this field. The bomb that I want to try to get into the mix is Sanzio (#4). He has to prove that he can be effective going this short, but he held his own at this level two back against a field of comparable quality. That 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts him in the mix, and that was notably his first start since a trainer switch back to Jimmy Ferraro. He had no chance given his wide against the bias trip last time, and should be a very generous price as he turns back.

RACE 8

This race loses all appeal after half the field scratched. Phileas Fogg (#3) obviously tailed off a bit at the end of 2025, but he was unwisely rated when they put blinkers on in the Cigar Mile last time, and that's not the way he wants to run. He's gotten a needed freshening since then, and returns with that equipment removed. He's likely to lead this field early, and should be tough to catch if he returns in top form. 

RACE 9

They all have to beat Donegal Surges (#4), who had a valid excuse when wide against the rail bias last time out. He will be tough to deny if he runs back to his effort at this level from Dec. 27 when he crossed the wire first only to be disqualified. While he did have that excuse last time, I'm not sure that he actually ran much better than today's rival Dreamlike (#3), who was also wide against the bias and outclosed this horse for third. Dreamlike is just a little tougher to trust turning back in distance, and the lack of pace in this race should be more detrimental to his chances. My top pick is another horse from that race. V Cruizer (#9) finished up the track, never getting involved after he was rated in the early stages. He was steadied multiple times at the back of the pack and his race was over from there. He did lead throughout when winning at this distance two back, and he should be able to work out a similar trip where with very little other speed signed on. He has to run faster this time, but I like that Linda Rice keeps placing him with confidence in these tought spots.

RACE 10

This Derby prep did not come up nearly as strong as the other two major points races taking place this weekend in Florida and Arkansas. Given the perception that this is a weaker field, a horse who ran as fast as Iron Honor (#6) on debut is going to be viewed as a very likely winner. Indeed, if he repeats the 95 Beyer or 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he was assigned in that debut win, he's probably going to beat this field. However, he did have some things working in his favor that day. The track was speed-favoring on Dec. 13, and he and the runner-up dominated the race towards the front end. Chad Brown is just 12 for 67 (18%, $0.85 ROI) with second time starters facing winners on dirt over the last 5 years. I don't view a victory by this horse as some kind of fait accompli, and the figures to be bet along those lines. A couple of his main rivals are turning back in distance. Crown the Buckeye (#3) should appreciate getting back into a one-turn race, since he was unable to finish over longer distances in his recent starts at Fair Grounds. However, he has plenty of early speed and could get caught up in a quick pace. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which may benefit a horse like Hammond (#2). He has gotten tough trips in two of his last three starts. He was steadied in the early stages en route to breaking his maiden last September, and more recently he overcame a poor start and wide trip to get up for third behind talented stablemate Solitude Dude. He has to prove he can get a mile here, but he appears to be heading in the right direction. My top pick is Right to Party (#5). He finished nine lengths behind the favorite on debut back in December, but this is the horse I would prefer out of that race. He was trying to close into a speed bias going a distance that appears to be too short for him. I would have liked to see him take more of a step forward when he broke his maiden last time in a slow race, but he still finished strongly going this distance despite hanging on his left lead all the way through the lane. He's still a work in progress and can take another step forward here given a favorable pace setup.