TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Projectability (#5) is very much the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. He will appreciate turning back in distance after moving to the lead at the quarter pole and fading last time. He ran well in his only sprint start when racing wide against the rail bias. The only drawback is that he figures to be a very short price. I had some interest in the first time starter for Pletcher, but with him scratched I'll just be watching this race.

RACE 2

I can't take a short price on Probability (#3), who has hung badly in each of his last three starts while going favored each time. He is catching a pretty soft field, but that was also the case two back when he somehow couldn't get past the cheaper Sequential. I'll try to beat him from the front end with Power Speed (#6). This 3-year-old has to improve, but he has a right to do so making his second start off the layoff. He was chasing outside against the gold rail last time and didn't even fade that badly considering the trip. He is out of a dam who won routing on dirt.

RACE 3

Derek's Law (#4) is obviously the horse to beat at what figures to be a very short price, but I am a little concerned about this drop in class. He ran too well in his first couple of starts off the claim to just be dumped for $12,500, so I wonder if he hasn't done well during the time away. I'm interested in both horses drawn outside of him. Ari's Magic (#5) figures to improve again third off the layoff. He faded badly when he made his return in January, but he was on a dead rail that day. Then last time he couldn't get the 7 furlongs, but did show some signs of life. He'll be a fair price and is drawn well outside of the other speed. Tarpaulin (#6) is the more logical alternative. He goes first off the claim back by Linda Rice, who had him previously. He needs to run significantly better than he did last time in the mud, but perhaps he just hated that surface since it was his first time over a wet track. The drop in class doesn't bother me so much with Linda Rice since she's looking to win races with these types of horses. It is worth noting that he ran a career-best race in his lone start for the Rice barn last year.

RACE 4

I found this field pretty difficult to separate, both for the purposes of setting a line and making picks. Guilty (#5) would beat this field if he could ever run back to that September dirt debut, but his two subsequent dirt efforts were pretty disappointing. Poppy's Ticket (#2) was wide against the bias last time, but I still didn't like the way he lacked any early speed and was never in contention. He's still a contender if he gets back to his January effort. I put Lord King (#3) on top without much conviction. He just seems to be in the best form right now, having showed speed and faded against some tougher competition. This is a much softer NY-bred field than the one he faced last time, and he might be quick enough to take them all the way up front.

RACE 5

Carrara (#7) is obviously the one to beat, but I can't say that I've been thrilled with any of her efforts since getting claimed away from Ken McPeek last year. She didn't improve much off the claim for Brad Cox, and I don't want to make the distance a big excuse last time since she's handled routes in the past. She's getting class relief she needs, but I still think she could be overbet with Prat aboard. I have more interest in Shadyside (#2) on the dropdown. She was wide against the bias two back, and faced a better field last time. She was running on belatedly in what was actually a decent effort. I wish she had drawn outside so that she doesn't get shuffled back at the start again, but there is speed in here to set her up. I want to bet Carolina Smokeshow (#5) off the claim for new connections. Jesus Romero doesn't win that often, but he also has a lot of bad horses in his barn. This could prove to be a decent claim since the filly has some past form and she ran well two and three back before regressing last time. Romero tends to do best when he reaches out to Jose Lezcano, so I'm encouraged to see him take the mount first off the claim.

RACE 6

After the scratch of Fireballin, Unbroken Chain (#1) figures to be a heavy favorite. He raced wide against the bias last time after a slow start. His prior form makes him a strong fit at this level, and he deserves another chance going this short since he had shown sprint ability early in his career. I don't believe he'll be as far back as he was last time with Prat getting aboard. Kenny Be (#4) has form that fits here, but he's coming off a layoff and might need a start. Tiote (#6) actually ran pretty well surviving a competitive pace last time, and he should be a fair price again. I would use him with the top pick. 

RACE 7

This starter optional claimer for 3-year-old fillies is easily one of the most interesting handicapping puzzles of the day at Aqueduct. Pinky Brier (#6) will be a clearly defined favorite as she gets Flavien Prat back in the saddle. They teamed up to come a head short of achieving four consecutive victories coming into the last race. She was pretty disappointing when she stepped up against stakes company in the East View, and you can't even use the track bias as an excuse since she was on the rail. The drop in class should help, but I don't think she has as big of an advantage as her price will imply. Purple Divine (#2) is a logical alternative at a better price. She finished a good third in the Maddie May after chasing outside on a day when the rail seemed like a minor advantage. That was her first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci, but she had been steadily improving on the way into that race. There is quite a bit of speed signed on, which should set things up for a closer. Both of the confirmed late runners in this spot are big prices, but I can make a mild case for Caradise (#4). She was glued to the rail last time when that probably wasn't the place to be over a muddy surface, and she never appeared to be handling the track. Prior to that she had closed to win a three-horse field, but at least proved that she could be dangerous when taking advantage of a pace setup. My top pick is Sparkling Mama (#5). She was on the same dead rail on Feb. 27, and might have had it even worse since she was dueling inside through some quick early fractions. The race came apart late, and those dynamics really worked against her. She had run very well in her two starts before that, gamely digging in to hold off the sharp Hot Gossip two back. She has to negotiate a turnback in distance, but she's quick enough not to get outrun early here and she's by good sprint sire Vekoma.

RACE 8

I can't give a strong endorsement to anyone in this finale. For the purposes of making picks, I put Brew Pub (#2) on top, but he's hardly a horse that I'd be itching to bet. He doesn't win very often, but he obviously fits at this level after having competed against tougher company in most of his recent starts. I don't hold it against him that he's never won at a mile since he's run solid speed figures at this distance. I suppose Hey Toby (#5) is dangerous as a threat to wire the field, but he's inconsistent even when he's at his best and his form has totally fallen apart in recent races.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

My primary take on this race is that Social Hour (#6) is beatable. He's run well in several starts at this level, but he's finishing second in three of his last four starts without an apparent excuse. The last two times he was the beneficiary of track biases, and he's unlikely to have that kind of factor working in his favor here. Among the short prices, I much prefer Oil Capital (#2), who turns back after just failing to get a mile last time. He dueled with Carvellian Quest, who came back to run poorly earlier this week but others from that field have validated the form. I do think sprinting is a better fit for this horse, but he may have to come from off the pace. I'm hoping that Uncle Jim (#4) can break from the gate a bit better, because that has been his Achilles heel in several recent starts. He again was off a step slowly last time before rushing up to chase the pace while racing wide. That was one of many days that featured a rail bias so he ran a lot better than the result might suggest. I'm intrigued to see what he can do for a new barn that rarely claims horses.

RACE 2

Mad Banker (#2) is the most likely winner after setting the pace while never on the rail last time. That was the first day of the rail bias period, though one of the few won by a horse who was also never inside. Cutting back to a mile could be key for him, since he ran very well when winning at this distance two back. He's the horse to beat, but I do think main rival Berning Beauty (#6) has a chance to upset if a couple of others push the early pace. The fractions were pretty slow in that Feb. 4 race and he was also wide against the bias, especially in the second half of the race. He has had more success around two turns, but he should get a better pace setup with this slight turnback. Charlie Baker's horses have run well at this meet and he's due to convert some of those seconds into wins.

RACE 3

I'm not trying to beat Emirates Road (#6), who just looks a cut above his rivals. He has faced significantly better competition since returning from a layoff last fall, and he hasn't even run that badly in a few of those losses. He was beaten by Donegal Surges and Be You, both stakes-caliber foes, in that Dec. 27 allowance, and last time he ran better than it looks when chasing wide against the track bias. He's dropping in class, but I don't view it as a major negative since he's running for $50k and was claimed for just $35k by these connections. They had a successful run with him, and now are just running him in a logical spot where he can win. The other dropdown to consider is Waitlist (#4), who was also against the rail bias last time. I wish he was a little more consistent on the way in, and his tendency to break a step slowly has hampered him in recent races.

RACE 4

The scratch of Princess Wadadli removes a key contender and the primary pacesetter from this race. Some may upgrade Top of the Table (#4) since she now looks like the main speed, but I thought she was on an advantageous rail last time and I'm not sure she's good enough. I'll stick with Graceful Rose (#1), who just seems like the best horse in this field. She won a starter allowance race last time and it's not clear that this is actually a tougher spot than that, especially considering the horse she beat came back to win. The other horse I would use is Redwineandwhiskey (#2), who was wide against a track bias two back and compromised by a speed bias last time. Though, I do think she's better on a sealed track.

RACE 5

Lady Meringue (#7) will take money by default merely because it's Linda Rice, but she's done little running in her prior starts against some very weak fields. I'm more interested in a couple of the 3-year-olds with more upside. My Girl Aubree (#2) showed speed and faded badly on debut. She was chasing outside against a rail bias, so I can forgive the effort, though I do wish she hadn't completely shut down in the lane. She's the one to catch, but I'm intrigued by Ishkabibble (#4) at a better price. If we take apart her PPs, she's better than she looks. She wasn't exactly outclassed by a better field than this on Jan. 11. She then broke poorly and was extremely wide against the rail bias two back. She again got off slowly last time and was pushed into an early backstretch move before understandably fading. She wants no part of a mile anyway. Now she's turning back and dropping significantly in class.

RACE 6

You have to respect a mare like Nic's Style (#1), who shows up every time and delivers. She's only finished out of the exacta once in her 12-start career, and that's when she returned from a layoff last fall. She hasn't won in over a year, but she's held her own against some stiff competition in recent starts. She did lose as the 2-5 favorite at Gulfstream last time, but Eclatant returned from a layoff looking like a major threat for the Grade 1 Madison. Nic's Style will be tough to deny if she brings that form north against this field. Irish Maxima (#2) is obviously a candidate to bounce back second off the layoff after she, too, lost as an odds-on favorite last time. She just got run off her feet by a sharp longshot. I don't want to use the mud as an excuse since she's loved wet tracks in the past. The fact that she's shipping back here is probably a good sign. I'll take a shot against these two with Atarah (#4), who actually defeated Irish Maxima when second at this level last time. She was outrun early, but made a nice run to get up for second as the only horse to close any ground. She also ran well two back when easily gaining forward position into a slow pace. I expect her to get a trip similar to that one with less speed signed on here. Linda Rice has her in great form right now and she may finally be a fair price with Flavien off.

RACE 7

This race has really fallen apart after 3 scratches take out some major palyers. Likely favorite Ignite the Light (#1) beat N2X foes while riding a bias last time, and he's not quite as appealing as his price might suggest based on his prior form. Even after the scratches, there are still 3 speeds and one closer left in this race. I'll take the late runner Bramito (#6). He may not be quite as good as some of these rivals on their best days, but he's fairly consistent and is always dangerous when he gets some pace ahead of him. He can also sit closer to the pace in smaller fields when they don't go quickly up front, as he displayed in the JUne 8 victory last year. He also won despite racing on a dead rail last time, so he ran better than it looks off the claim for this underrated trainer. 

RACE 8

Playing Tricks (#3) will probably go favored here as he ships up from Florida for Chad Brown. He's trying winners for the first time, but ran well in both starts against maiden foes. He did need plenty of time between those races, but it was a good sign that he built upon his Aqueduct debut when he returned at Gulfstream last time out. That 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him a contender here, though I have some questions about the overall quality of the field he defeated. This is obviously a step up in class, and Chad Brown doesn't have the best statistics with these types. Land d'Oro (#1)seems like a candidate to rebound after he was chasing wide against a track bias last time. I don't want to give him too much credit for that effort since he was sitting on top of a slow pace, but it was dominated by rail runners. Reynolds Channel (#5) is another who was negatively affected by the prolonged rail bias in his last start. He was chasing outside throughout in a race dominated the frontrunner. He had previously shown improvement off the claim for Amelia Green when beating starter allowance foes two back. A return to that form gives him a strong chance here. My top pick is Run Quiet Run Fast (#2), who is likely to be the biggest price of those compromised by the track bias last time. Not only was he hung 3 to 4-wide around both turns but he was also disadvantaged by a slow pace that favored the forwardly placed horses. He never got involved, but he really had no chance given his trip. This horse had shown some ability in Kentucky late last year, and seemed to handle a mile pretty well when he closed for third at this level at Ellis Park in August. He's since gotten a significant trainer switch to Tom Morley, and this should mark his first start over a fair racetrack for that new barn.

RACE 9

I have little interesting in trying to beat heavy favorite Golden Symphony (#2). He's simply better than these rivals as he drops in class. He was claimed for $30k, so dropping down to $20k isn't some kind of fire sale. This is the right distance for him, and he's supposed to be forward in a race that lacks much early speed. When the main rival looks like Shipsational (#8), who hasn't won in 4 1/2 years, I feel pretty good about this favorite taking them all the way.