Track Trends

NYRA handicapper Andy Serling analyzes Aqueduct track trends and conditions in hopes to uncover insights about potential track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers, as track dynamics can change from one day to the next.

2026

Sunday, January 18

Track Condition: Muddy ( sealed )
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 33
Wind: 10 to 20 MPH North

Mix of successful running styles, with speed and closers doing well, though there may have been an advantage to being forward. Likely the rail was not the best place to be as most of the successful running was done towards the middle of the track.

Saturday, January 17

Track Condition: Fast ( 1 ); Good ( 2-4 )
Weather: Snowing
Temperature: 34
Wind: 10 to 20 MPH SW

The races were cancelled after four races after some minor snow, which stopped minutes after the cancellation, and it appeared the track played fairly. Forward horses did well, save the 2nd race, where the winner came from well back.

Friday, January 16

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 30
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH West

The track played fairly and the rail was fine.

Thursday, January 15

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Clear
Temperature: 37
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH West

The rail continues to be dead with most of the effective running being done well out into the track.

Sunday, January 11

Track Condition: Muddy ( sealed )
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 45
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH NW to West

Seemed like the rail continued to be off but later in the card that seemed in question. Not clear. Perhaps the track changed as the day wore on. Not many horses stayed inside so might be worth following.

Saturday, January 10

Track Condition: Fast ( 1-6 ); Good ( sealed ) 7-9
Weather: Cloudy with Showers mid-card
Temperature: 44
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH East

The rail continued to be dead and did not appear to change after the track was sealed.

Friday, January 9

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 46
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH South

The rail was dead today. A significant disadvantage.

Sunday, January 4

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Clear
Temperature: 33
Wind: 10 to 20 MPH NW

The track played fairly with a mix of successful running styles.

Saturday, January 3

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 30
Wind: 10 to 20 MPH West

The track played fairly, with a variety of different running styles proving effective, as race dynamics played the biggest role in the outcomes. Much fairer than 1/2.

Friday, January 2

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 29
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH West

The was a strong bias towards speed, and possibly the rail, on today's track. Worth following going forward. 

Thursday, January 1

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Clear
Temperature: 26
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH NW

It wasn't a gold rail, as we saw horses run well making outside moves, but there is an argument that the rail was good. How much of an advantage is hard to guage. Might be worth following.

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