Track Trends
NYRA handicapper Andy Serling analyzes Aqueduct track trends and conditions in hopes to uncover insights about potential track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers, as track dynamics can change from one day to the next.
2025
Wednesday, December 31
Mixture of successful running styles suggesting a fair track. The rail was good but not a clear advantage.
Sunday, December 28
The rail was good, but no apparent advantage, as the track played fairly.
Saturday, December 27
The track played fairly.
Friday, December 26
The track played fairly.
Saturday, December 13
It's fair to say that inside speed was an advantage, though other than the 6th race, when a longshot first time starter wired the field, the results were very logical. However, an outside closer dominated the 5th race. Still, worth following as saving ground, and maybe more being forward, was a likely advantage.
Friday, December 12
The track played fairly with a mix of successful running styles.
Thursday, December 11
The track played fairly with a mix of successful running styles, with race dynamics playing a role, and no perceived bias. The rail was fine but we also saw effetive running wide.
Wednesday, December 10
The rail was an advantage, as was speed, but how strong is debatable, as we saw some effective closing.
Sunday, December 7
The track played fairly.
Saturday, December 6
There is an argument that inside speed was beneficial, especially based on the longshot winner of the 4th race, but much like prior days, we say enough effective closing to suggest there was not a significant bias. Probably worth following.
Friday, December 5
While we saw some speed race effectively, ultimately the track played fairly.
Thursday, December 4
The track produced quick times. While inside speed did well, we saw enough closers race effectively, especially as the day wore on to suggest the surface was at least close to fair.
Sunday, November 30
With only one racecontested, hard to determine any bias, but it sure seemed like a similar track to 11/29.
Saturday, November 29
The was an extreme inside bias, not speed necessarily, but horses that were able to save ground for at least the majority of the race benefitted immensely. The races where outside closers performed well were pretty much a result of strongly contested paces, which happened as the day wore on and riders became more and more aware of the bias.
Friday, November 28
While the rail was good, overall, the track played fairly.
Sunday, November 23
Overall the Main Track played fairly, though there may have been a slight edge to being forward. Today was the last day of turf racing and both races appeared to play fairly.
Saturday, November 22
There were a fair mix of speed and closers running well throughout the day, with a lot of logical results, and while much of the best running was done outside, we saw enough horses run well inside to say the track was fair.
Friday, November 21
All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly.
Thursday, November 20
While the rail was good on the Main Track, it was not a significant advantage, as overall the track played fairly. There were two races on the Outer Turf, rails at 36 feet, and they appeared to play fairly. There will be no more racing on the Inner Turf until 2026.
Sunday, November 16
Racing was cancelled after two races, both on dirt, and the track appeared to play fairly.
Saturday, November 15
All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly.
Friday, November 14
The Main Track played fairly, as did the Outer Turf. It's possible the inside was an advantage on the Inner Turf though not significant if any bias at all.
Thursday, November 13
There were a couple of very brief showers that did not affect the Main Track. All the surfaces, turf and dirt, continued to play fairly. The turf courses were very much on the Good side of Firm.
Wednesday, November 12
All surfaces, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly. It does seem like both turf courses were closer to Good than Firm. The rails were moved to zero on the Inner and 24 feet on the Outer.
Sunday, November 9
Despite the changing conditions, all courses, turf and dirt, likely played fairly.
Saturday, November 8
All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly.
Friday, November 7
The rail was good on the Main Track but, overall, the track played fairly. Same for the turf courses, where horses ran well that saved ground, but likely the courses were at least close to fair.
Thursday, November 6
While much of the best running was done off the rail on the Main Track, the second race was won in front and on the inside, so likely the track played fair. The rails were at zero on the Outer Turf and 27 feet on the Inner. We saw closers fare well in the two races on the Inner, but hard to say there was a bias. The rail may have been an advantage on the Outer Turf.
Sunday, November 2
All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly.
Saturday, November 1
All corses, turf and dirt, played fairly
Sunday, October 26
All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.
Saturday, October 25
The Main Track played fairly, as did the Inner Turf ( rails at 9 feet ). The rails were down to zero on the Outer Turf and there may have been a slight advantage to the rail but it's far from clear.
Friday, October 24
The Main Track played fairly, as did the turf courses in all likelihood.
Thursday, October 23
There is an argument the rail was an advantage. Far from clear but worth following. The turf courses played fairly.
Wednesday, October 22
All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly. The rails were at 9 feet on the Inner Turf and 36 on the Outer.
Sunday, October 19
All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly
Saturday, October 18
Speed did well on the Main Track in some circumstances, but likely overall the course played fairly. The rails were still at 24 feet on the Outer but were down to zero on the Inner Turf. Both courses appeared to play fairly.
Friday, October 17
All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly
Thursday, October 16
The rail was good on the Main Track, and forward horses may have had an edge, though there did not appear to be a strong bias. The rails were at 24 feet on the Outer Turf and 27 feet on the Inner. The courses were listed as Firm but were likely closer to Good, with the Outer having a little more give than the Inner. The courses played fairly.
Saturday, October 11
There is some evidence the rail and speed were an advantage on the Main Track, but with two races playing fairly, it's unlikely there was any significant bias. The turf courses played fairly. After some showers in the morning there was some give to the courses.
Friday, October 10
The Main Track played fairly, as did the turf courses, with dynamics playing the biggest role in the outcomes.
Thursday, October 9
The Main Track played fairly. The Inner Turf ( rails at 18 feet ) played fairly. The rails were out 12 feet on the Outer Turf, and while speed won both races ( both sprints ), it was likely situational and not the result of a bias.
Sunday, October 5
The rail was good on the Main Track but overall, the track played fairly, as did the turf courses.
Saturday, October 4
Early in the day, it seemed like the rail continued to be a big advantage on the Main Track, but as the day wore on, it was hard to continue to make that case. Worth following but hard to say the track wasn't at least reasonably fair. The turf courses appeared to play fairly overall.
Friday, October 3
There was an extreme gold rail on the Main Track, likely skewing the results in those races. Likely both turf tracks played fairly with dynamics, and talent, playing the greatest role in results.
Thursday, October 2
The Main Track played fairly. Speed did well in the three dirt races, but dynamics played the biggest role in the only race not won by a short priced horse. The rails remained at zero on the Outer Turf and went to 9 feet on the Inner. Likely the courses played fairly, with race dynamics playing a role in some of the outcomes.
Sunday, September 28
All surfaces, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.
Saturday, September 27
The Main Track played fairly. The rails were at zero for the first time since June on both turf courses. There is an argument the inside was an advantage on the Inner Turf, which is worth following, while the Outer appeared to play fairly.
Friday, September 26
The rail was good on the Main Track but overall the track played fairly. There was one race on each turf course, with arguably more give on the Inner Turf than the Outer. Hard to determine any trends with just one race per course. Rails are at 36 feet on the Outer and 27 on the Inner.
Thursday, September 25
While much of the best running in the stretch was done off the rail, a number of successful runners were inside in the earlier parts of the races, so it's hard to say there was a path bias. Speed seemed very strong in the first three races but subsequent to that closers did very well. Tough to say there was any noticable bias one way or another.
Sunday, September 21
The rail was good on the Main Track, but no seeming advantage, as the track played fairly...as did the turf courses.
Saturday, September 20
All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.
Friday, September 19
The Main Track played fairly. The Inner Turf played fairly as well. The Outer was also likely fair though it's still possible there was some advantage to being inside.
Thursday, September 18
There were three dirt races and they appeared to play fairly. The rails were at 24 feet on the Outer Turf and 18 on the Inner. Saving ground appeared to be beneficial on both courses. Not sure there was a bias but worth following.
Sunday, September 14
All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly.
Saturday, September 13
The rail was good, and speed did well, on the Main Track but given the results it's more than likely the track played at least reasonably fairly. The Turf courses played fairly as well.
Friday, September 12
The rail, and speed, were good on the Main Track, but there is not a lot of evidence that it was a strong bias whatsoever. Saving ground may have helped on both turf courses, but likely the courses were closer to fair than anything.
Thursday, September 11
While speed, and the inside, played well on the Main Track, overall the track seemed to play fairly. The same could be said about the turf courses, which overall also seemed to play fairly. The rails were at 9 feet on the Inner and 12 on the Outer.