TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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RACE 7

This starter allowance with a $50,000 claiming option going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf might be the most competitive race on the entire Thursday card. There isn't a clear favorite among the 9 runners entered for grass, though Chess Master (#3) seems like one of the more logical contenders. This 9-year-old has achieved 15 career victories in turf sprints and has run well in all 3 attempts over this distance at Saratoga in the last two seasons. His 2025 form has been solid, achieving a five-furlong win at Gulfstream before running respectably in a race rained off the turf at the Spa last month. His tactical speed should put him in an advantageous stalking position. Maya Prince (#6) is one of several competing for the $50,000 optional claiming tag, as he drops in class out of a series of tougher races dating back to last summer. He was mildly overmatched in his lone start of the season when unable to close in a speed-dominated stakes at Laurel. His form tailed off at the end of last year, but he's getting logical class relief and should contend here with any progression second off the layoff. There is some speed in here, but typical front-runner It Can Be Done (#2) hasn't sprinted since 2021 and doesn't seem fast enough to make the lead at this distance. Scheduling Dude (#9) is shown leading on the TimeformUS Pace Projector, but he's never run on turf before. That should put Heaven Street (#4) either on the lead or sitting right on top of a moderate early pace. It's been a while since this 6-year-old has run a race that makes him competitive at this level, but there are some signs that he's cycling back up to a stronger performance. He once was capable of producing form that would beat this field, such as when he won a high-level allowance race going this distance at Keeneland in October of 2023. He's tailed off since then, but he had a valid excuse when he completely botched a start last September. He went to the sidelines soon after, but he now returns in the barn of Ilkay Kantarmaci, who has rejuvenated several older claimers in New York this year. Heaven Street actually put in the best dirt effort of his career off the layoff two back when displaying excellent early speed before fading, earning a competitive 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure on a surface he's never liked. That signals that he can still run, and I like that he's ambitiously placed once again as he gets back on turf.

Fair Value:
#4 HEAVEN STREET, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

It's never a surprise when Chad Brown holds a strong hand in a stakes for turf females, and that's certainly true of the Wild Applause, a race he has won in 4 of its last 5 editions. He has the two likely favorites among this three contenders, though pace could be key to the chances of all of them. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that Classic Q (#5)will be all alone on the lead in a scenario favoring the frontrunner. It doesn't sound like Mark Casse is too pleased about that, since he told Mike Welsch that he thinks this filly runs best from off the pace. Yet I don't think it's fair to hold her loss in the Regret against her, since she just ran off on the front end, posting TimeformUS Pace Figures exceeding 140 for her the first two calls. She was never going to sustain that pace, and she's probably best going shorter anyway. She's dangerous here if Jose Ortiz can get her to settle up front. It's hard to know exactly who could press her. Among the Chad Brown trio, Lavender Disaster (#7) may possess the most natural tactical speed. She's been a little keen in the early stages even she's won, and she's coming off a solid victory against older foes. She had a major excuse in her lone loss in the Miss Grillo, and will be tough with any progression second off the layoff. The Brown runner that I'm least optimistic about is Play With Fire (#6), a new acquisition for LSU Stables. She made an impressive swooping move to win the Hilltop, but that came over a course that was closer to yielding than firm. Chad does well with new acquisitions like this, but she's unlikely to get the same setup as last time and her prior form doesn't convince me. My top pick is Midway Memories (#4), who figures to be the biggest price of the Brown brigade. She wasn't beating much of a field when she broke her maiden last time, but she closed strongly into a moderate pace, extending her stride impressively through the final eighth of a mile. I was actually more impressed by her debut effort at Tampa where she nearly got the job done against a tougher field while closing into a very slow pace. This half-sister to Grade 1 winner Zandon has more tactical speed than her form might suggest, and comes into this with plenty of upside. She's been searching for a spot to run, scratched out of the Penn Oaks and Boiling Springs last week, but figures to be a better price here.

Fair Value:
#4 MIDWAY MEMORIES, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 10

Of the fillies exiting the June 5 race at this level, La Salvadorena (#3) has to be considered the strongest contender. She barely beat two of today's rivals across the wire, finishing second to a runaway longshot winner. Yet she had by far the toughest trip of those horses. She was off a bit slowly and then forced to go wide while attempting to make up ground. She was legitimately 3 to 4-wide all the way around the far turn, and spun wider into the lane. She had every right to flatten out, but kept trying through the wire in a determined effort. That was her return from a layoff, and she figures to be tough to beat if she steps forward with that start under her belt. As for the others out of that race, Thiene (#8) is also second off a layoff here, but she got an absolutely perfect trip last time. Tales of the Heart (#10) was the favorite that day, but she really had no excuse after saving ground in the two-path and tipping out in the lane, only to flatten out late. Leslie's Humor (#4) seems like a stronger rival for the ML favorite. This filly won her turf debut against weaker company at Monmouth last year before running respectably in a pair of allowance races in New York, once on turf and once on dirt. She put pulled up when last seen and now returns switching into the Chad Brown barn. Her drills for this return have been pretty eye-catching, as she's outworking every partner in the morning. Now she has to prove she's progressed in the afternoons. My top pick is You Decide (#6), who also returns from a layoff. However, she's making her 3-year-old debut, so she should have more upside than those returning as older horses. She ran a pretty fast race when she finally got on turf last October at Santa Anita, winning decisively by over 5 lengths. Her 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure may not seem that impressive, but that number was actually downgraded slightly (hence the 'p' notation) because it came up almost too fast for the level. Runbacks from the race have been strong, and she's certainly bred to be a turf sprinter. Her worktab off the long break seems light, but Tom Proctor is 7 for 15 (47%, $3.69 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs on turf over 5 years so I won't get too concerned about it. There's some speed in here, but none will be as quick as her if she builds on her two-year-old effort.

Fair Value:
#6 YOU DECIDE, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 11

Chad Brown sends out another likely favorite here with the returning Opera de Ravel (#9). She ran pretty well in her lone start last year, going 3-wide on the turns before staying on for second behind a decent former stablemate. It obviously isn't ideal that she subsequently spent over a year on the sidelines, but Chad Brown is willing to give horses plenty of time when they need it, and the stats speak to that. Over 5 years, Chad is a remarkable 36 for 114 (32%, $2.67 ROI) with maidens coming off 240+ day layoffs, and he's 7 for 14 (50%, $5.33 ROI) if you add Saratoga turf routes to the above parameters in Formulator. She appears to be training well for the return, and she doesn't need to improve much on her debut performance to beat this field. I definitely respect her chances. I wanted to avoid the horses exiting the maiden race won by Curlin's Angel, though Key Actress (#5) might have some upside if she can settle better early in this race. Bint Al Dandy (#2) is mildly interesting after getting scratched when she flipped in the gate here on June 5. She had worked well into that start, and was 4-1 at the time of her acting up in the gate. I just wonder if she really wants to go this far off the long layoff. My top pick is Cliffs (#8), who tries turf for the first time. She finished a strong third with a wide trip in a very live race, from which 4 horses have won their next starts with strong speed figures. At first glance, it seems a little surprising that she's switching to turf since she ran so well in that dirt debut, but she actually has a deceptively strong turf pedigree. Omaha Beach gets nearly 14% turf winners, and of the dam's 3 winning siblings, 2 won on turf including Mind Mapping, who was multiple stakes-placed on turf in France. This is also the female family of Grade 1 turf winners War of Will and Pathfork. In a race where many still have to prove their quality, this filly should be a handful if she takes to the surface as well as her pedigree suggests.

Fair Value:
#8 CLIFFS, at 7-2 or greater